Some countries that have prosecuted or threatened to prosecute central bankers for the purpose of political intimidation or punishment for monetary policy decisions: Argentina, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

Don’t know if who needs to hear this, but writing is hard.

Well I sure as hell am!

Great thread by @dhnexon.bsky.social on how Trump foreign policy is basically the Bust Out episode of the Sopranos.

We need Congress fully engaged on foreign policy. A paper by former Congressman Lee Hamilton explains why and how! Ultimately, Congress needs its own National Security Council to serve Congressional leadership and coordinate Congressional action. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/make-congr...

He can trade it for his FIFA Peace Prize.

Pretty sure Border Patrol is only legally permitted to operate within 100 miles of the border (which includes coasts.) Minneapolis is much farther from the Canadian border or any of the Great Lakes. Just saying. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...

In politics, amateurs talk personality, professionals study institutions. Institutional structure is a big reason why Congress is ineffective on foreign policy. This needs to change. I have ideas for fixes besides yelling that Congress needs to do its job! aaronmannes.substack.com/p/make-congr...

There are institutional reasons why Congress is AWOL on foreign policy. I offer some modest institutional proposals to change this. We need to think hard on this because we are seeing what happens when the legislature fails to check executive power. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

There are historical precedents for key players staying put during crucial military operations. The best example has some odd overlap with the Venezuela operation. For more—plus some quick thoughts on 1/6—read on! open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Everyone was at the Mar-a-Lago situation room, everyone but JD Vance! What could that possibly mean? We do a little political analysis and history. Also, we share some thoughts on the 5th anniversary of 1/6, which was an assassination attempt on the VP. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

a very useful thing I learnt from @amannes.bsky.social profile of the Venezuelan veep is that she heads up a key intelligence service - aaronmannes.substack.com/p/venezuelas...

What the fuck is optionality? Why can’t Rubio just say options! Must our language undergo further debauchery?

Last night I wrote Trump had picked Venezuela’s VP Delcy Rodriguez to run things after Maduro’s removal. Looks like I’m right… I look at her rise, use her role as VP to understand the Bolivarian regime, and make some guesses about what comes next. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

VP Rodriguez cut a deal. With Maduro gone she’ll deal to get sanctions relief. She’ll be publicly defiant, but that’s for show. She’s a pragmatist. Meanwhile, the awful Venezuelan regime will continue, just under new management. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Trump will not ultimately overturn U.S. democracy because he is his own worst enemy. That’s my optimistic take. Also, the Farrell I refer to is the brilliant political scientist Henry Farrell substack.com/@henryfarrell aaronmannes.substack.com/p/its-going-...

Started something big for the New Year--I'm watching West Wing as my workout series. Didn't see it when it was on, and now I teach about White House decision-making. So I guess it's research? Analysis coming...

Some New Year’s Day hope—on why Trump will fail and we won’t slide into authoritarianism. I give some political science reasons. But it really comes down to knowing that the United States of America is a remarkable and unprecedented entity in world history. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/its-going-...

Starting 2026 with a feeling of hope! I’m re-upping my top post of 2025 which does a bit of political analysis that show why the U.S. isn’t sliding into authoritarianism and how we’ll continue to be the messy imperfect democracy we’ve always been. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Here’s a rundown of my most read posts of 2025. My readers love punditry: who is up, who is down, and who to keep an eye on. But my most read post of 2025 is something different, it’s a message of hope. Top 5 Down the Hall Posts of 2025 open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

In my Veeply Roundup, I have a capsule review of the Netflix nuclear crisis movie House of Dynamite--some serious food for thought. Also a look at Vance’s 2028 prospects and some non-Veep stuff on writing. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/vance-risi...

First Veeply Roundup in a while, top story is on how Vance is rising, but he faces troubles ahead. But we also look at Chile, which just elected a new president, but doesn’t have a VP and my own brief brush with literary greatness. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/vance-risi...

We haven’t done a Veeply Round-up in a while, so there’s a lot. We've got takes on Vance brokering the Trump-Musk feud (double-edge sword), Chile’s VP (there isn’t one), the National Security Strategy (it’s bad), and a movie review! open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Anything named after Trump should be boycotted, until he is erased from our public life.

Shorter version of lengthy NYT article in MGT leaving MAGA: She discovered what most of us already knew—Trump is a dick.

What the world needs now is TRUST, strong trust! Ultimately society and civilization rests on trust, it’s such a powerful thing. But we are running short of it. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

If you aren’t familiar with this guy, he’s been buying up domains with the names of various right wing figures and orgs and making his own websites for them and it is making them crazy. Here’s his insta www.instagram.com/wordclown?ig...

Society, institutions, it’s all rooted in trust. There is nothing more valuable than trust. Some practical wisdom touching on the spiritual—my Christmas gift to everyone. It's Trust all the Way Down: A Sermon open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

I thought this administration wanted a Christian nation? Why are they deporting so many Christians?

JD Vance is doing really well, key member of the White House team with the confidence of the president. Or, he’s not doing well, wrestling with increasingly Nazi-adjacent MAGA-core. It’s a tale of two JD Vances in Down the Hall. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...

Been a while since this Veepologist looked at the doings of VP Vance. The latest installment of "Down the Hall" makes up for this. Best way to describe it is from Dickens: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..." aaronmannes.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...

My lord, when you’ve lost Josh Blackman

There were very devout Christians in both sides of the Civil War. Just saying.

Hanukkah is one chapter in the ancient tension between Athens and Jerusalem—Greek and Jewish civilization. In my regular Hanukkah post I examine this conflict, and of course turn it to vice presidents. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/hanukkah-a...

Does Hanukkah offer some perspective on the vice presidency? I make a connection, give it a read and see if you think it holds up! open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Indiana standing up to Trump on gerrymandering gives me an excuse to write about the Hoosier state. There’s something special about Indiana, and not just because it is a top producer of vice presidents—although really, that should be enough! aaronmannes.substack.com/p/indiana-pr...

Everyone else go home — this is the year we secure ABOLISH ICE on a Chicago Snowplow chicagoshovels.org

Why are so many VPs from Indiana? Why are so many TV shows set there? Why did the Indiana state Senate stand up to Trump? Is there something deeper to all of this? Is there even some hope, maybe? Indiana: Profiles in Veepness open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Define largest. I think the Brits would like a word. Falklands Armada was pretty big, at least in total numbers of ships.

In the Caribbean, tactics overshadow strategy. This occurs across policy issues for deep-seated, human reasons. At the core of Veepology is the idea that a good VP can help a president overcome this challenge and provide a broader perspective. aaronmannes.substack.com/p/the-tactic...

Trying to figure out what White House chief of staff Susie Wiles was thinking talking candidly to Chris Whipple. @beijingpalmer.bsky.social (who would know) gives one answer. But I wonder if she has some kind of long game here.

TIL nearly all of the "Miracle Max" scene from Princess Bride was improvised by Billy Crystal, and it took three ten hour days to shoot, because they couldn't get through his improv without everyone (cast and crew) laughing so hard it ruined the audio. Mandy Patinkin bruised a rib holding it in.

Dealing with Technology’s Hazards – Wed, Dec 17, at 2 PM ET REGISTER (FREE) teachprivacy.com/video-dealin... @Daniel-Solove.bsky.social Excited to talk to Dan about my book!

Excellently put. Thanks @beijingpalmer.bsky.social

Are we asking the right questions about US military ops in the Caribbean? It's hard for political leaders (or anyone) to escape the tyranny of the immediate—but good policy looks at the wider picture. VPs are uniquely placed as advisors to do just that. open.substack.com/pub/aaronman...

Waking up to news of another antisemitic mass shooting, this time at a Hanukkah event in Australia. I’m heartbroken and angry and I don’t know how many other ways to say it: antisemitism is a crisis that is threatening Jews, every single one of us, and the core of our society.

Same! I am also immobilising all Russian assets on my soil!

Japan is in a war that it cannot win!

Once again, can't stress enough how rare it is for a GJ to refuse to indict. The probable cause standard is low and the vote need not be unanimous. In a normal DOJ this would be a screaming sign to drop the case - no way you will convince a unanimous jury at trial beyond a reasonable doubt.

1. Notice that the FBI’s Glasheen gets *very* uncomfortable when Congressman Thompson asks him some basic questions about “Antifa.” They can’t define it. He claims Antifa is the biggest domestic terrorist threat, but that’s inconsistent with the FBI just now “building out” its analysis.