Typhoon Fung-wong ( #32W /Super Typhoon #UwanPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 1500 UTC 9 November 2025: Extremely dangerous Category 3 Fung-wong quickly moving across central Luzon… Dangerous and life-threatening conditions will continue through Monday… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-fu...

Typhoon Fung-wong ( #32W / #UwanPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12: 0000 UTC 9 Nov 2025: Eyewall of enormous and extremely dangerous Category 3 Fung-wong moving over #Catanduanes… Landfall expected in #Aurora later today… THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

Typhoon Fung-wong ( #32W/ #UwanPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11: 1200 UTC 8 November 2025: Outermost rainbands of extremely large and dangerous Fung-wong beginning to affect the Eastern Visayas... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-fu...

If you are in the #Philippines, namely in any part of #Luzon, you should be taking this storm seriously. It is not going to be the Cat 5 beast the models initially called for, but it is going to be an ENORMOUS rainfall and wind threat. This is a HUGE storm. #UwanPH #32W

Typhoon Fung-wong ( #32W / #UwanPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 0300 UTC 8 November 2025: Fung-wong gradually intensifying as it continues approaching the #Philippines… Expected to be a massive rainfall threat late this weekend… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-fu...

Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12: 1500 UTC 6 November 2025: Kalmaegi rapidly moving inland over southern Vietnam and eastern Cambodia… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Typhoon #Kalmaegi (#31W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11: 0000 UTC 6 November 2025: Kalmaegi rapidly intensifies into an extremely dangerous Category 4 typhoon as it approaches the Vietnam coast… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Tropical Depression #32W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1500 UTC 5 November 2025: Enormous Tropical Depression 32W producing areas of heavy rainfall in Yap State… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1500 UTC 5 November 2025: Kalmaegi strengthening quickly as it moves away from the #Philippines… Potentially catastrophic flooding threat possible in #Vietnam on Friday and Saturday… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Tropical Depression #32W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 0000 UTC 5 November 2025: Tropical Depression 32W still consolidating well to the south of Guam… Tropical storm warning issued for portions of Yap State… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 0000 UTC 5 November 2025: Kalmaegi moving away from Palawan… Dangerous typhoon conditions still occurring over the northernmost portions of the island... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Tropical Depression #32W (formerly #90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1500 UTC 4 November 2025: Tropical Depression 32W forecast to intensify significantly during the next few days... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 1500 UTC 4 November 2025: Kalmaegi in the Sulu Sea and about to cross over Palawan… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Tropical Depression (Invest #90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 0000 UTC 4 November 2025: Depression forecast to strengthen significantly during the next several days… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 0000 UTC 4 November 2025: Kalmaegi moving across Negros and about to cross over Panay… Extremely dangerous conditions to move over Panay during the next hour or two… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

FWIW I have been doing data calls from the Aviation Wx Center site, and from what I can see, it looks like as of 2:30 pm CT 14 of the 58 sites listed in the NWS notice about this contract cancelation are no longer providing updated observations.

Tropical Depression (Invest #90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1800 UTC 3 November 2025: Tropical depression forms well to the southeast of Guam… willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Satellite imagery indicates that Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) has made landfall on Leyte southeast of Abuyog with winds of 90 kts.

Typhoon #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1200 UTC 3 November 2025: Kalmaegi becomes a Category 2 typhoon as it closes in on Leyte… Landfall expected in the next couple of hours... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Typhoon Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 0000 UTC 3 November 2025: Kalmaegi intensifies into a typhoon as it approaches Samar and Leyte... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ka...

Severe Tropical Storm #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 1500 UTC 2 November 2025: Kalmaegi expected to intensify at a faster rate beginning on Monday… Wind signals raised for much of the Central and Eastern Visayas... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/severe-tro...

Tropical Storm #Kalmaegi ( #31W / #TinoPH ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 0000 UTC 2 November 2025: Kalmaegi steadily intensifying as it passes well north of Palau... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Storm #Kalmaegi ( #31W, formerly #98W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 1200 UTC 1 November 2025: Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi as it moves away from Yap... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Depression (Invest #98W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 0000 UTC 1 November 2025: Tropical depression forms just east of Yap State... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Parents check your Halloween candy. I just found these Jay Jones texts in my kid's box of candy.

#Melissa (#13L) is rapidly losing tropical characteristics as it races northeastward away from #Bermuda. Melissa should quickly become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone later this morning as it interacts with a mess of frontal boundaries in the northern Atlantic.

Invest #98W located SE of #Yap is organizing, with an increasingly well defined LLCC present although the convection is still in scattered clusters. This will likely become a tropical depression by tomorrow, and it is definitely something to watch if you're in the #Philippines.

#Melissa (#13L) is racing away from the #Bahamas and toward #Bermuda. The #hurricane is beginning to lose tropical characteristics as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, and the convection is shearing off to the north and east. This could still be a hard hit for Bermuda.

I love it when a model has a spread of 135 mb among all its members. 06Z Google DeepMind for invest #98W has members ranging from 876 mb to 1001 mb at 102 hours.

#Melissa (#13L) has emerged from the NE coast of #Cuba and is headed for the #Bahamas. Unlike the passage over #Jamaica, Cuba really did a number on its structure. Although it's back over water, it won't have an opportunity to recover as it's about to encounter strong shear.

A look at TDR observations of Melissa over the last few days shows just how impressively persistent and compact its inner core was - while the lack of eyewall replacement cycles helped Melissa intensify right up to landfall, it also kept its wind field fairly small.

#Melissa is recovering from its passage over #Jamaica quite quickly. The eye is still cloud-filled, but it is warming fast and the eyewall appears to be intact. Another brief spurt of rapid intensification is starting to look very possible before it reaches #Cuba in ~6 hrs.

#Melissa (#13L) is back over water off the northern coast of #Jamaica. It has weakened significantly (winds down to 125 kts, probably closer to 110-115 kts by now) but still has a fairly impressive structure. It could regain a bit of strength before reaching #Cuba early tomorrow.

Thanks to @bmcnoldy.bsky.social & @drkimwood.bsky.social for help with this story. We were all struggling to find sufficient words. “It’s this frustrating combination of, scientifically speaking, we know this is possible, but as humans we are flabbergasted at seeing manifest in this way.” -Kim 🧪

Once #Melissa (#13L) is done in #Jamaica, the danger is far from over. Depending on how much passage over Jamaica disrupts it, Melissa could still be a high-end Category 4 hurricane as it approaches Eastern #Cuba early tomorrow. Another potentially catastrophic situation looms...

#Melissa (#13L) has officially made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica at Category 5 status, with winds of 160 knots (185 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb. Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most intense landfalling Atlantic #hurricane on record.

I was worried for my crew mates when I saw them circling in the eye for over 20 mins. Looks like the very rough ride was confirmed. Plane had to leave early. They reported svr turb and a "sawtooth" eye. Looks like they moved 600-700ft up & down during this stretch in ~1 min.

Center of #Melissa's eye is just about to make landfall. I would expect an update from NHC in the next few minutes.

#Melissa should make landfall within the next 30 minutes or so. The NE eyewall is on shore and remains just as potent as ever.

Key messages from the latest discussion on #Melissa. For #Jamaica, this is about as close as it gets to a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) #hurricane warning, if it existed. Widespread destruction is very likely, and higher elevations could see even stronger winds.

#Melissa (#13L) is about to make landfall in #Jamaica. This is a catastrophic situation. It's hard to come up with any more words to describe this. Position: 17.9°N 77.9°W (40 mi SE of Negril) Movement: NNE at 7 kts (9 mph) Intensity: 160 kts (185 mph) Central pressure: 892 mb

Eyewall of #Melissa is on the coast - landfall is imminent. Good luck to everyone on the ground there because this is going to be devastating. Tied for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record.

This dropsonde is absolutely INSANE. The mean wind in the lowest 150 m of #Melissa is 188 kts (216 mph). These are some FIERCE winds and some higher elevations in Jamaica could very well see 175-180 kt winds.

The latest update shows #Melissa with winds of 160 kts (185 mph) and a pressure of 892 mb - tying the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane as the third most intense on record in the Atlantic. The headline reads "LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE." This is NOT hyperbole. #Jamaica

One last NOAA plane has made it to #Melissa before landfall, so we've got one more opportunity for some observations before we shift gears to people on the ground like @icyclone.bsky.social.

Finally, we get a dropsonde in #Melissa's eye and it indicates a pressure of 893 mb with winds of 13 kts. This reduces to a central pressure of 892 mb, which ties the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane for third most intense on record in the Atlantic basin.

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica. rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/... #hurricanemelissa

The 12Z ATCF update for #Melissa (#13L) indicates winds of 155 kts (180 mph) and a central pressure of 896 mb. As it stands, Melissa is the seventh most intense Atlantic #hurricane on record, just behind Milton from last year (895 mb). And it could be stronger.

The Air Force recon plane is currently circling the eye, most likely trying to confirm the extremely low pressure they just recorded. Given that all the pressure observations on this pass are in the 892 to 897 range, I'd say they've confirmed it. #Melissa

Recon just measured an extrapolated pressure of *893.5* mb in #Melissa...and they haven't even gone through the eye yet! Holy crap!