Robust wave—Invest 98L—is entering Caribbean. While #hurricane models are not especially excited, global & AI ensembles are more aggressive, showing this system growing real fangs. Caribbean nations need to watch this one. 2025 season might go out with a bang. If it develops, it will be #MELISSA.

#Hurricane #IMELDA closing in on #Bermuda. Radar shows a deformed system: one super-long rainband & 1/3 of an eyewall. Ok. Strongest winds will occur within next couple of hours, I assume. Wx Nerd Note: Many of Bermuda's stations are very high above sea level, so readings there tend to be generous.

#IMELDA ain't exactly a work of art, but it should strengthen as it accelerates ENE. Models suggest it'll be transitioning into freaky hybrid thing as it nears #Bermuda late tomorrow, but it could have spicey gusts. Me: I'm not going for this one. Ain't feeling it. Focused on the Pacific right now.

Satellite & radar imagery show #IMELDA is starting to crank & will soon become a #hurricane off Florida, near the Bahamas. Thanks partly to #HUMBERTO, it'll accelerate away from the US—putting #Bermuda in the crosshairs. I haven't decided my next step—weighing potential targets around the world.

Final leg of my grand odyssey to hunt #Typhoon RAGASA in China: quickie dusk flight from Houston to Gulfport. I was deep in thought the whole time about one thing: what I'm hunting next. French Quarter of New Orleans shimmered down below. Hurricane House seemed to welcome me home as I pulled up. ♥️

Yeah, it looks sexy. But I'm not gonna sit here oohing and aahing over fish food all day. Ain't my style. P.S. Despite the "quiet" season, Cat-4 #Hurricane #HUMBERTO is the third top-quality specimen in the Atlantic this year.

#IMELDA hasn't even been named yet and I'm already over it.

NHC has started advisories on the thing which will soon be #IMELDA. Models are giving mixed signals in terms of intensity & path, with other pieces on the chessboard being the trough over the US & Hurricane HUMBERTO in Atlantic. Main takeaway: possible #hurricane near Southeast US coast by Tuesday.

My fixer Mr. Chen & me, the day after the typhoon—in his hometown of Foshan in Guangdong. He wanted to take me to lunch at his favorite neighborhood place. We worked well together. We had to communicate entirely thru translation apps, but we made it work. And, yes, he said he'd do it again! 谢谢陈先生!

Recovering from a brutal chase. My 82nd core penetration did not come easy, but it did come. Got into eye of #Typhoon #RAGASA on Hailing Island China 6 pm Wednesday. Storm was decaying but violent. Eyewall was gusty, explosive, micobursty. Lots of damage to hotel & trees. Now en route back to US.

Cat-5 Super #Typhoon #RAGASA raking the Babuyan Islands of the #Philippines with winds of 145 knots. Babuyan Island is squarely in the eye; the larger & more populated Calayan Island is in the inner eyewall—no doubt seeing extreme winds—& about to enter the lull. Next stop for me: China.

Night falls on #Philippines as Cat-5 Super #Typhoon #RAGASA heads for Luzon Strait—a place that's seen many such beasts. After it clears the Strait, a weaker RAGASA will threaten big population centers in China. Me: hanging in Manila. I've made no decision where I'm going to hunt. There's time.

#Typhoon #RAGASA is gorgeous—& difficult to chase. My target was Babuyan Islands (orange). There's no airport, but I had a plan—& then the plan fell through. Plan B: Hunt it in China (pink), where it could be a big impact. My possible targets: Hong Kong, Macau, Zhanjiang, & Leizhou. No decision yet.

P.S. Sorry I've been silent for a while. Bluesky isn't available in Mississippi due to some age-verification bullsh*t, and I haven't gotten around to setting up a VPN.

Hey from 35K ft over Pacific. I'm on the journey to hunt down #Typhoon #RAGASA. My plan: there ain't no plan—yet. Too soon. I'm just gonna land in Manila & look at it. From there, I have six distinct paths I can take—across different nations, etc. This is a tricky one. WPAC always a pain in the ass.

#ERIN: big, powerful #hurricane that'll stay out over Atlantic. However, it'll grow in size—typical as hurricanes move N—so parts of US East Coast will see gusty winds & coastal flooding—like NC's Outer Banks. Re: next Atlantic wave: I'm starting to get a fishy, briny scent from that one, too.

Two-sided perspective box, 1670. When seen through a peep-hole, the scene becomes an illusionistic 3-D room, w/ table set for tea, and artworks displayed on wallspace. Nice! By Pieter Janssens Elinga, born OTD 1623.

Fifty-six years ago tonight, Category-5 #Hurricane #CAMILLE smashed #Mississippi. Eye passed right over my town, Bay Saint Louis. Community was devastated. I've been documenting the oral histories of neighbors who survived it. Check out their accounts here: www.facebook.com/share/p/1EfY...

Pic from Hurricane Hunters' mission into #Hurricane #ERIN. Spectacular stadium eye. ❤ But I've moved on from ERIN. It's over between us. I'm a chaserdude—so if I can't have it, I'm not into it. Ain't gonna oooh & aaah over sexy fish food. My new focus? Possible rebound romance models are hinting at.

San Juan radar shows #Hurricane #ERIN's tight core passing well N of #PuertoRico. Even so, outer rainbands are bringing heavy rain & gusty winds to PR & Virgin Islands. That inner core may collapse & give way to new, larger core—a classic eyewall replacement cycle. Either way, ERIN will miss US.

Say hey to #ERIN, first #hurricane of the Atlantic season, passing just NE of Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands. It's now a Cat 5, with winds of 140 knots. Check out that sexy pinhole eye. Fortunately, this monstruous specimen is fish food—taking the perfect path, "field goaling" between all landmasses.

TS #ERIN is looking much healthier. It's increasingly feeling like a fish storm, with models suggesting it may "field goal" between landmasses—N of Caribbean islands, E of Bahamas, between US & Bermuda, then S of Atlantic Canada. But outliers threaten E Bahamas, Newfoundland, & Bermuda.

Morning light reveals TS #ERIN lurking in far-E Atlantic. It's struggling right now but will become 2025's first Atlantic #hurricane. Most models bring ERIN on parabolic recurve that keeps it N of Caribbean Islands, threads it between US & Bermuda, then hooks it NE so it stays S of Atlantic Canada.

#Typhoon PODUL is approaching #Taiwan. It's still lopsided, but it's looking healthier than before: convection is trying to wrap around the broad center. I'm not chasing this one—couldn't quite justify traveling to the other side of the earth for this specimen. But it could be a decent impact.

African disturbance is now Invest 97L. Will likely become season's first #hurricane. Where's it going? Generally WNW. Will it impact North America? Unclear—although overnight models have trended more N & E, increasing odds of recurve into open Atlantic. For now: watch & wait.

Since the tropics are dead, I popped back into #LosAngeles for a quick visit. Reconnecting with my #SoCal loves: dry heat, stunning light, creative people, healthy living.

August fruit salad. A couple of these should become DEXTER and then ERIN. But I'm not gonna have much to say about 'em. It's against this here chaserdude's religion to waste energy talking about fish food. (The lemon could *possibly* be something more than fish food, but I ain't holding my breath.)

CO-MAY (EMONG) is pulling away from the #Phlippines. It's unclear exactly what happened, but it seems it was strong tropical storm (not a typhoon) as it passed near or over the W coast of Luzon overnight. (Compare JMA, JTWC, & PAGASA tracks—they're all different.) Main impact has been flooding.

Doing personal travel as I wait for hurricanes. In #NYC for a few days. Nice to see family & reconnect with the city where I was born. NYC today is so different from when I was growing up—now cleaner & safer—but it's still the random & cool mishmash of humanity. Feels like the whole world lives here

Get your natural sleep aid—now in weather-map form. Atlantic or Eastern Pacific flavors.

#WIPHA is scraping close to #HongKong this Sunday morning. Radar shows well-organized cyclone with apparent eye & eyewall. Hong Observatory & JTWC class this as Cat-1 #typhoon, but JMA is stubbornly keeping it as TS despite surface obs that suggest it is, in fact, a typhoon. Odd.

TS #WIPHA is now within radar range of Hong Kong. It ain't exactly what I'd call a fine specimen, but it has an easily identifiable center and decent banding. Estimated winds are 55 knots. It'll be a stormy Sunday morning in Hong Kong.

TS #WIPHA (called CRISING by Filipinos) is pulling away from the #Philippines (pink) after causing flooding & travel disruptions there. It's looking a little more organized as it crosses the South China Sea, & it could be near #typhoon intensity when it passes near #HongKong (star) in ~24 hours.

View from Hurricane House just before it poured yesterday. #Invest93L brought 2.79 inches here, with 2 falling in only about a half hour. Lots of lightning & thunder, too, but peak winds of only 22 knots. With that, I am officially done talking about this annoying, boring system. Next!

Wow. Hadn't looked at the radar since KMLB came back online & when I did, I was kinda surprised. That convective pattern is definitely giving cyclonic vibes. Excited to see #hurricane models run this afternoon, now that this has been designated Invest 93L. Getting some tingles from this one.

This thing's gonna move W, across Florida & into Gulf. once there, it could spin up this week. Computer models are mixed. Euro ensembles don't care for it, but GFS ensembles develop it—& naughty ICON shows a #hurricane! Whatever it is, it'll move generally W, across N Gulf, toward Texas.

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on the NE Gulf, where low pressure may form and develop during the coming week. Computer models aren't exactly screaming it out, but GFS and Euro ensembles are hinting at cyclone development in this region. 'Tis the season.

#Typhoon DANAS approaching #Taiwan. Core pounded Tainan & other cities as it swept up populated W coast. Wind reports were impressive; Yulin Co. had gust to 120 knots. No, I did not chase this—didn't see this situation coming. Computer models tricked me. Too bad. I love Taiwan & love chasing there.

#Typhoon DANAS made an unexpected landfall on W coast of Taiwan. It's a bit of a surprise—both in terms of track & intensity. Surface observations suggest it came in hot. It looked great on radar. This is 2nd typhoon landfall on W coast of Taiwan (side that usually gets less action) in last year.

TS #CHANTAL made landfall 5 am EDT near Myrtle Beach, #SouthCarolina. It has sheared, asymmetric structure, with most of the wx right (NE) of center. It ain't pretty, but it's a legit TS, with a couple of stations reporting sustained gales. Main threat is flash flooding across the eastern Carolinas.

Spent July 4th in solitude, working out hard and cycling. I'm American because my ancestors came here to escape slaughter in Europe. I've always felt lucky to be American. And I've always associated our nation with kindness, charity, and goodness. May we not lose sight of these values.

This mess has a closed circulation—so it's now TD 3. Hurricane models are not enthused about it—not even normally excitable ones. It's likely to become TS #CHANTAL but likely to remain early-season trash before limping ashore in SC late Sat or early Sun. Eastern Carolinas could see flash flooding.

If you want to know all the gory details of hunting a dangerous storm in a faraway place, here's my complete tale of chasing Hurricane ERICK in Mexico. Enjoy! LINK: www.facebook.com/share/p/1CCN...

Heavy rain from Gulf disturbance. Just got 2.25 in in ~1 hour in Bay Saint Louis, MS (HH = Hurricane House). It's funny—I was just thinking Bay was allergic to thunderstorms this season. Don't like this weather? GET OVER IT. It's gonna stay unsettled for next couple of days while Gulf thing festers.

Watching thing over NE Gulf—a decaying frontal boundary. Sometimes these can spin up into something dangerous if they fester long enough over water. 12Z model runs are not enthused about this blob, but previous runs of GFS & Euro ensembles have shown interesting scenarios. Gonna keep an eye on it.

Sunday Nite Chaserdude Roundup: 1)FLOSSIE will become hurricane—but models have shifted away from Mexico & it'll likely be fishfood. 2)Scrambled Eggs BARRY is coming ashore near Tampico bringing heavy rain, I guess. 3)LEMON THING is rotting front which may fester enough to create mischief this week.

All known Cat-5 #hurricane landfalls in N America: * 5 in US: San Felipe 1928, Labor Day 1935, CAMILLE 1969, ANDREW 1992, MICHAEL 2018. * 1 in EPAC: OTIS 2023. * Strongest: Labor Day 1935 & DORIAN (160 knots). * US & Mexico are tied for most (5 each). * I penetrated 3: DEAN 2007, MICHAEL, DORIAN.

By the way... It's very early in the season, but the Gulf is already plenty warm to support a #hurricane —all except a small sliver off the Yucatan Peninsula. Interestingly, waters just off Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, & Florida are boiling—in many places over 88°F (31°C).

I was just in Vero Beach, so I was curious about area's hurricane history. Interestingly, JEANNE 2004 is farthest-N landfall of major (Cat 3+) on Florida's East Coast. But it had fat core, so eyewall reached N to near Melbourne. Honorable mention: DORA 1964, which hit St. Augustine just under Cat 3.

Cyclones brewing either side of Central America. In Bay of Campeche, TD 2 should become TS BARRY before moving into Mexico. In EPAC, Invest 95E will become #Hurricane FLOSSIE. Computer models earlier hinted at possible Mexico threat, although afternoon runs have shifted track away from coast.