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Yikes! The strong El Niño is materializing and has the potential to become the strongest in observed history. We'll definitely cover this Climate Chat today.

What subjects would you like us to cover today on Climate Chat? Please post your questions below or in the live chat on YouTube later today. www.youtube.com/live/Gn_m-2m...

Sunday 6/7 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Ask Us Anything #3 with hosts Dan Miller & @leonsimons.com. Leave your questions or requested subjects in the thread below, or ask questions in the YouTube Live chat. #Climate #AMA @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social youtube.com/live/Gn_m-2m...

Experts lied and millions of people died. And hundreds of millions remaining chronically ill from a disease obtained through exposure to COVID virus aerosols, which could have been avoided. The disinformation around aerosols by climate media darlings will do much harm still.

Western Mediterranean at +3.6°C. Again...

The most outspoken critics we've faced are highly educated individuals who clearly don't grasp basic energy physics, but are completely oblivious about their own ignorance. As someone who works on energy every day, it's hard to grasp. Also makes me think about where my own confirmation bias lies.

'Global warming acceleration in satellite observed lower-tropospheric temperature' (Preprint) "Projections based on the accelerated trend estimates suggest the potential for an additional 0.5–1.0°C of warming within the next decade [...] roughly three to five times the 1981–2024 linear trend." 📎👇

At the current Earth's Energy Imbalance of +1.4 W/m², the heat needed to melt the Thwaites/Doomsday Glacier (~84 ZJ) and increase global sea levels by 65 cm accumulates in only 4 years! Besides the amount of heat added, what happens with that heat is crucial.

New: Climate change literacy has not budged in years. Largely the result of a huge coordinated disinformation campaign. The science is crystal clear: ALL of the warming is due to humans… 1/

Always fun to look at projections of energy over time. This natural gas one has me somewhat puzzled. The change from 2025 to 2026 is rather...impressive. Do we really have any idea? www.theclimatebrink.com/p/nobody-kno...

See our conversation with Detlef van Vuuren about the new scenarios. We could still end up with a forcing of +8.5 W/m² around 2100 if we are stupid (continue with record high GHG emissions) and unlucky (strong initial aerosol forcing and carbon and climate feedbacks) www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

The Creation of Adam/El Niño

This year will be an acid test of how 'fine' our global civilization is prepared against rapidly accelerated climate change, an historic Super El Niño, record high biofuels production on agricultural land AND fertilizer and fuel shortages.

Sunday 5/24 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Throwing Shade at Global Warming: Risks & Reality of Planetary Sunshades with Ross Centers. @leonsimons.com @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social #SRM #Climate #Geoengineering youtube.com/live/hlqBBRI...

Our great friend and fighter for climate justice, Marjan Minnesma, passed away yesterday. 💔 She fought all the way to the Supreme Court of the Netherlands to prove that climate agreements are legally binding. My heartfelt condolences to the amazing @urgenda.bsky.social team. ♥️

Insightful writing by @climateofgavin.bsky.social on the new and old (e.g.. @drjamesehansen.bsky.social et al. 1988!) scenarios and their use in climate modeling. I do wish it covered the comparison of satellite observations w models as he proposed in CERESMIP 2023. Detlef van Vuure was unaware:

Indeed, assuming a massive industry based on technology that doesn't exist at any meaningful scale (yet?) is all but helpful imo. Especially when these "negative emissions" are not transparently presented in the emissions scenerios. I almost missed this: youtu.be/L8EuYhK-ilU

Single sentence: “We probably shouldn’t assume billions of tons of Carbon Dioxide Removal to happen in the decades ahead, which is what the new low emissions scenerios do, in order to ‘keep global warming below 2°C’” Backed up with a 1.5h chat with the lead author: www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

The ask is not to abandon CDR. It is to stop using it as a modeling shock absorber for delayed fossil phase-out. Residual emissions only. Build the 1,000x honestly, or cut the assumption. https://www.captaindrawdown.com/posts/captains-cdr-log-141/

People have been calling me a 'fossil fuel shill', 'doomer', 'geoengineering peddler' and worse for highlighting real risks associated with rapid sulphur mitigation combined with record high greenhouse gas emissions. If we can't talk about existential risks, we'll face them unprepared.

A new study by Allen et al. shows just what the New Scientist headline says. That's in fact not unexpected: warming slows #AMOC, and that's what removing aerosol pollution does. 🌊 The paper 👉 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... New Scientist 👉 www.newscientist.com/article/2526...

We probably shouldn't assume billions of tons of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) to happen in the decades ahead, which is what the new low emissions scenerios do, in order to "keep global warming below 2°C" Find the current level of CDR in this figure:

I never thought that President Trump would comment on a specific subject (RCP8.5) we covered on Climate Chat! See our interview with Detlef van Vuuren who wrote the key paper that removed RCP8.5 from the set of future emission scenarios. @leonsimons.com youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

Climate Chat with Phil Duffy is now live! www.youtube.com/live/tTdOOVm...

Climate Chat with Phil Duffy is live in one hour: www.youtube.com/live/tTdOOVm...

Climate change denier in chief

This could very well be the worst impact from shipping desulphurization, the unmasking of greenhouse gas warming caused AMOC slowdown: www.newscientist.com/article/2526...

Accelerated warming and sea level rise: youtu.be/PAcOqAsJEOo?...

Sunday 5/17 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: "The White House Scientist Scaling Climate Solutions" with President Biden's Climate Science Advisor Phil Duffy. @leonsimons.com @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social #ClimateCrisis #WhiteHouse #ClimateSolutions youtube.com/live/tTdOOVm...

In the Netherlands we now on average have an hour more daily sunshine compared to the 1980s. We get 20 W/m² more energy reaching the surface, which is the the day and night, 365-day year average. The global greenhouse gas forcing is "only" 4.1 W/m², to highlight the importance of regional change.

It's been strange to witness how someone who clearly hasn't read our actual paper has such strong opinions and feelings about our paper... academic.oup.com/oocc/article...

I was quite surprised to learn that Detlef van Vuuren wasn't aware of the CERESMIP protocol, see timestamped link ofbthe conversation we had with him last Sunday. How is/can this be integrated? www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

This explains a lot... You can just pick a friend who's not even a subject expert to review you @pnas.org paper.. Like asking a Professor of Cognitive Science to review your climate paper, for example. What could go wrong? 🤷‍♂️

This is the climate science equivalent of Wikipedia citing itself: A post using a simple model that wasn't build for assessing regional forcing changes, using outdated climate sensitivity and only produces global averages is cited by scientists and journalist around the world..

New Mann et al. @pnas.org study misrepresents our @drjamesehansen.bsky.social et al. 2023 research. And the source they cite on a low shipping forcing states: "We do not explicitly account for the introduction of strict fuel sulfur controls brought in by the International Maritime Organization"

Why should we care that Earth's Energy Imbalance has more than doubled? Because that's what drives the climate to change. It's really that simple!

Fact-check: Many scientists have been denying the 'acceleration' of global warming for years. Even now that their own evidence supports it, many are still downplaying it. The Earth's Energy Imbalance more than doubled. NASA's satellite data is not in line with models!

"Even with a lower emissions scenario you can still end up at with a forcing of RCP8.5 (~8.5 W/m² by 2100), only as a result of having "bad luck" on climate feedbacks" Listen to our conversation with @detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social about the new emission scenarios here: www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

We had a great conversation with @detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social on Climate Chat. Watch it back here if you want to understand what the new emission scenarios are really about: www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

However, they do bring up an issue that we addressed on Climate Chat regarding how forest fire emissions are counted: CO2 Accounting Scam? with Dan Miller & @leonsimons.com youtube.com/live/Vcx6Wyj...

There has been quite some buzz around the new emission scenarios proposed to be used for future climate modeling work. We will speak with Detlef van Vuuren lead author of the new paper about this on Climate Chat, live soon: www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

We’re now into the public safety portion of climate breakdown. The arguing online to “keep hope alive” ship sailed, hit a rock and sank a few years back. We need real time, actionable plans.

That's "completely wrong"! The positive Energy Imbalance is what adds energy/heat to the Earth system. Temperature increase is specific heat increase, by definition. Temperature can only increase without a positive imbalance if latent heat is converted into specific heat.

Why should we care that Earth's Energy Imbalance has more than doubled? Because that's what drives the climate to change. It's really that simple!

Just waking up to another day where candidates for all kinds of offices & major news media pretend this extremely predictable, civilization wide disaster isn’t going to slam into us like a bullet train hitting an ornate tea party. In other words, just a normal day in 2026 America. #ClimateCrisis

Forecasts are only increasing. More and more of the latest Niño 3.4 forecasts are crossing 4°C at their peak!

Sunday 5/10 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: New Global Emissions Projections: Scrapping the Highs & Lows with climate scientist Detlef van Vuuren. Also on all audio podcast platforms (recorded) @leonsimons.com @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social #Climate #CO2 youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

"This is fine"

For 1850-2025 the graph uses Berkeley Earth data, one of the common datasets used by scientists. Bottom line: Earth is warming at rates never experienced during the reign of humans, and it’s us humans who have become Earth’s greatest force of nature.