Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social

There is talk of an EU-US trade deal. The EU shouldn't agree to a WTO rule-breaking shakedown that undermines the multilateral system. Instead, it should build a coalition to push back.👇 NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.

Happening now ⬇️

Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

#Globalisierung unter Druck! 🌍 Wie muss sich Deutschland in einer "post-globalisierten" Welt aufstellen? @julianhi.nz & Aurora Li diskutieren über die neue, unsichere #Handelsordnung. 📌Berlin-Mitte 📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr Jetzt anmelden! 👉 share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...

unsere grundlagenfolge zu zöllen mit @julianhi.nz ist nun frei für alle: mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

🍕 Jetzt anmelden zum Pizza-Event mit @julianhi.nz zum Thema Welthandel & Globalisierung - bei unseren Büronachbarn in Berlin @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social 👇

Join us for the next Kiel Trade Talks! Laszlo Tetenyi @bportugal.pt presents research on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program and its impact on welfare, undernutrition, and resource allocation. Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

Looking forward to this @BrookingsInst event on Thursday on the state of the Russia sanctions ⬇️

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n

📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application. Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-... #RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU

Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University & Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data. Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏! @cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social

Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

Trump’s 'Liberation Day' marks a retreat from multilateralism. In this joint statement w/ @svrwirtschaft.bsky.social, CAE @cepii-paris.bsky.social the authors call on the EU to respond w/ strategic retaliation, support for EU firms & leadership in defending open trade www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

In dieser öffentlichen Vorlesung analysieren zwei Experten für Internationale Volkswirtschaftslehre – Professor Gerald Willmann, Ph.D., und Professor Dr. Julian Hinz (@julianhi.nz) von der Universität #Bielefeld – die wirtschaftlichen Hintergründe und Folgen dieser Entwicklung. 13.05.25, 18:30, H15

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: US-China 90-day tariff pause provides short-term relief. US real GDP impact improves from -1.6% to -1.29%, and inflation eases to +4.3%. 🇨🇳 China’s real GDP loss shrinks to -0.5%. 🇩🇪 Germany and 🇪🇺 EU hardly move compared to previous situation (-0.22% and -0.14%). 1/n

Happening now ⬇️

How do China’s rare earth export restrictions shape global innovation and trade? 📈 Join the next - very timely - Kiel Trade Talk with @janschymik.bsky.social 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

#WIFO Research Brief: neue Zollpolitik der USA konfrontiert die EU mit wachsender handelspolitischer Unsicherheit. Drei Szenarien, mit denen die EU auf protektionistische Tendenzen reagieren kann, werden analysiert. @hendrikmahlkow.com @sonalichowdhry.bsky.social @julianhi.nz buff.ly/m5eXspM

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis Update: Additional +34% tariffs by 🇨🇳 China on imports from 🇺🇸 USA, and in response an additional +50% tariffs vice versa (total 104% 🤯). Numbers largely speak for themselves, with relatively stable figures for bystanders (EU, also BRICS) hiding significant trade diversion. 1/3

The Kiel Institute is on fire – they modelled the impact of Trump’s trade war. Check out the chart. The numbers come with the usual uncertainty, but they give a good sense of the eye-popping inflation the US is now facing. Via @davideoneglia.bsky.social Paper here: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/kiel-...

@julianhi.nz & team on fire! Follow him for Insta-Analysis on all things trade - especially #tariffs right now. Also on 👉 www.kiel.institute/tariffs

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: New "reciprocal" US tariffs are serious. We ran both status quo (tariffs until April 2 incl. retaliation) and newly announced reciprocal tariff regime through the KITE model. (Non-) spoiler: 🇺🇸 hits itself the hardest. NB: Short-run, extremely ad-hoc. 1/n

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: New "reciprocal" US tariffs are serious. We ran both status quo (tariffs until April 2 incl. retaliation) and newly announced reciprocal tariff regime through the KITE model. (Non-) spoiler: 🇺🇸 hits itself the hardest. NB: Short-run, extremely ad-hoc. 1/n

„Nur ein stärker EU-Binnenmarkt schützt vor Trumps Handelspolitik," so urteilt unsere Handelsexpertin @sonalichowdhry.bsky.social. Was langfristiges Wirtschaftswachstum und die Widerstandsfähigkeit der EU stärken kann, lesen Sie jetzt in ihrem Statement: www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c....

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: President Trump just announced an additional 25% on US automotive imports. While the industry has global visibility, short-run impact likely small, except for 🇲🇽 Mexico and 🇨🇦 Canada: -1.81% and -0.6% real GDP impact. Even Germany only -0.18%. Note: No retaliation here. 1/n

Translation of Trump's 232 autos executive order... 1. Are you bringing cars into the US? 25% tariff for you 2. Are you bringing parts from our special list into the US? 25% tariff for you

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: President Trump just announced an additional 25% on US automotive imports. While the industry has global visibility, short-run impact likely small, except for 🇲🇽 Mexico and 🇨🇦 Canada: -1.81% and -0.6% real GDP impact. Even Germany only -0.18%. Note: No retaliation here. 1/n

Was soll das Zoll-Chaos aus den USA? Neue Folge von #TonspurWissen, dem #Podcast von @leibniz-gemeinschaft.de und Rheinischer Post. Diesmal mit Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz vom @kiel.institute für #Weltwirtschaft und der Universität Bielefeld. pod.fo/e/2bba0d #Zölle #Handel #Wirtschaft #Handelspolitik

Mehr Analysen, Simulationen und Kommentare rund um das Thema Zölle und Handelskriege sind in unserem Themendossier zu finden - inklusive der Rohdaten hinter den Analysen 👇

🎧 Zoll-Chaos aus den USA? @julianhi.nz diskutiert im Podcast von @leibniz-gemeinschaft.de & Rheinischer Post: Was sind Zölle und wer zahlt sie am Ende? Sind Gegenzölle wirtschaftlich oder politisch? Und was bringt Trumps Taktik aus Drohung & Rücknahme? Reinhören! 👇

Happening now ⬇️

📢 Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk: @petereppinger.com @unituebingen.bsky.social will present research on how firms balance the risk of imitation with efficient sourcing in global supply chains depending on the IPR environment 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis Update: President Trump just announced an additional 25% on Canadian imports of steel and aluminum, bring the total to +50%. Overall effects similar, except for Canada: -0.62% vs. -0.39% real GDP impact. Note: No retaliation here.

1/ Trump's new 25% steel & aluminum tariffs hurt the US most—raising prices & cutting exports—while the EU remains largely unaffected. Canada & Mexico, however, face substantial repercussions @julianhi.nz 👇

🚨New paper: “Shooting down trade: Firm‑level effects of embargoes” – by @uguraytun.bsky.social & Cem Özgüzel, and myself – just published in JEBO. We ask: How do firms adjust when geopolitical shocks disrupt trade? 1/n

Re-upping this. No comment needed.

Well, looks like this is already out-of-date: “US to boost tariffs on China and push ahead with Canada and Mexico levies” on.ft.com/3EWXNT7 KITE update coming tonight.

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: Trump has announced his intention to put 25% tariffs on all EU goods. The impact would be significant for the EU, but the US would also face major costs—especially if the EU retaliates. 1/5 @kiel.institute

🌍 Exciting discussions at our #EconomicSecurity & Global Trade workshop! Over two days, we explored policy, globalization, labor markets, etc. Opening greetings from Consul General Shinsuke Toda & keynotes from Jota Ishikawa & Pao-Li Chang. Huge thanks to all speakers, organizers & participants! 🚀

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: Trump has announced his intention to put 25% tariffs on all EU goods. The impact would be significant for the EU, but the US would also face major costs—especially if the EU retaliates. 1/5 @kiel.institute

Kick-off for the workshop on “Economic Security and the Future of the Global Trading System” — extremely timely topic with papers on the impact of the democratic dividend and environmental policy on trade. @kiel.institute @rethink-gsc.bsky.social @joschkawanner.bsky.social

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: The US is imposing reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners and may count VAT as a tariff. Bottom line: The impact is largest for the US itself among large economies. Of course, big caveat: Very limited information at this point. 1/3

📢 Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk: @ignaciomarra.bsky.social (@ulbruxelles.bsky.social) will present research on Brazil’s 1995 FDI liberalization & its labor market effects. Spoiler: A skill-biased reallocation shock 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

Außenwirtschaft europäisch denken! Die neue Bundesregierung muss auf eine starke 🇪🇺 als Antwort auf geopolitische Spannungen, Protektionismus & wirtl. Unsicherheit setzen. Was das für den Umgang mit 🇨🇳, Afrika & 🇺🇸 bedeutet, beim Klima, Rohstoffen & Handelsabkommen 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikati...

🇺🇸 25% blanket tariffs on 🇨🇦🇲🇽. Impact will be significant. Scenarios below didn’t include retaliation and 10% on China — update coming soon. @kiel.institute

Now that's some real time analysis