NOW HIRING a one-year, full-time post-bacc research fellow to work with longtime-coauthor Rob Johnson (Notre Dame) and me on on global supply networks, trade, and economic security. Econ + excellent programming skills (esp SQL) are a must. 📝 Details + application: apply.interfolio.com/168476

Exactly so.

The vibe in the Beige Book is an economy holding its breath, with tariffs mentioned 49 times and uncertainty mentioned 45 times within the 49 pages. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

Hard to believe in just 2 months, we've gone from imminent soft landing to the specter of stagflation. Policy matters. theovershoot.co/p/the-us-cho...

It turns out that when supply chains are deeply intertwined, tariffs are *really* expensive! This is especially true for carmakers in North America, who also own the factories in Canada and Mexico. See, e.g., cepr.org/voxeu/column... and www.restud.com/global-value...

I'm often asked, "but don't tariffs create jobs?"