and yet some escalation would actually be positive, or else the threats (and actions) will get worse. That's how bullies operate. We (@julianhi.nz @ckhead.bsky.social @schularick.bsky.social & I. Méjean) made this point in July, and it only got worse since then: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...

Thank you for coming, Christian. Any great session on export promotion ought to have you included!

Service Offshoring and Export Experience url: academic.oup.com/ej/article-a... Experienced exporters are more likely to source services at destination. Once offshoring, they exhibit reduced volatility and are less likely to exit foreign markets. @gberlingieri.bsky.social

J Hinz, @schularick.bsky.social, @ckhead.bsky.social, I Mejean, & @emanuelornelas.bsky.social‬ argue the only effective response to Trump's #tariffs is a united one. Unified retaliation by the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, & South Korea would be impossible to ignore. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Let’s not lose sight of the big picture. Appeasement won’t work. Instead of rushing to minimize short-term costs, we should stick to WTO principles and pursue a coordinated, proportional, multi-country retaliatory response against rule-breakers

A picture is (sometimes) worth just as the paper:

An example of the intricate consequences of a trade war between large countries (and this was the “mild” trade war of 2018-2020…)

"This study estimates the carbon-efficient forest cover in the Brazilian Amazon. A $10/ton carbon tax could preserve 95% of the efficient carbon stock, avoiding 42B tons of CO2 & yielding $1.6T in welfare gains." From @araujocrrafael.bsky.social , @franciscocosta.bsky.social & Sant'Anna #EconSky 👇

Trump justifies his protectionist policies as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country.” We show that the first US–China trade war indeed created jobs — in Brazil.