Nicholas Stephanopoulos
@profnickstephan.bsky.social
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📥 2406
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Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law School.
https://nicholas-stephanopoulos.com/
Very nice to see Andrew Gelman - who helped develop the "Gelman-King" bias of district maps - conceding that the metric doesn't work in uncompetitive states. Other scholars defended the measure's use in Utah, but the court saw through these claims.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/13/c...
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Being picky and careful pays off! (Utah redistricting story) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/13/court-ruling-appropriately-applies-our-research/
about 1 month ago
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This major new volume on campaign finance is now out. My contribution (
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
) argues that, even if legislative quid pro quos are rare, quintessential corruption remains common in the context of government contracts.
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
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Campaign Finance and "Real" Corruption
Courts and commentators often assume that “real” corruption—quid pro quo corruption—is largely absent in modern American politics. But it isn’t. In at least one
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4822687
about 1 month ago
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You can now explore different electoral scenarios on
@planscore.org
. For Dems to capture the House, they need to win the popular vote by about 1 point. The House's bias is tiny if 2026 is like 2024 (or more pro-Rep), but grows if 2026 is a better Dem year.
electionlawblog.org?p=154769
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2026 Scenarios for the U.S. House Election #ELB
Another PlanScore update that may be of interest to ELB readers: There’s a new “2026 Scenarios” feature that allows users to see how the U.S. House map as a whole would perform under different elector...
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=154769
about 1 month ago
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This NPR segment on which population counts for redistricting (
www.npr.org/2026/03/09/n...
) quotes a 2021 paper I wrote with Jowei Chen. We found that changing the unit of apportionment would have significant racial -- but more muted partisan -- effects.
www.californialawreview.org/print/democr...
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The next redistricting battle might be who is counted in state legislative districts
A Republican push to alter the census may lead to a radical shift in redistricting for state legislatures — drawing districts that don't take into account children and non-U.S. citizen adults.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/09/nx-s1-5613878/us-census-citizenship-question-redistricting
about 1 month ago
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What explains the Court's stay in the Staten Island case? 1. The Court could think that race-conscious districting is inherently unlawful. That's what Alito says in his concurrence (contradicting his own opinion in, e.g., Milligan). But no other justice joined Alito.
about 2 months ago
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Check out this very cool update to
@planscore.org
: You can now move a slider back and forth to simulate how a map would perform under any electoral environment. For more, see this post by
@mike.teczno.com
:
medium.com/planscore/pl...
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PlanScore’s New Midterm-Ready Vote Predictions
This week, the 2026 mid-term election season is kicking off in earnest with U.S. House primaries in Arkansas, Texas, and North Carolina…
https://medium.com/planscore/planscores-new-midterm-ready-vote-predictions-d2b2d10f5154
about 2 months ago
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reposted by
Nicholas Stephanopoulos
Votebeat
about 2 months ago
How much worse can gerrymandering get? Will the Supreme Court strike down a landmark voting rights law? We asked two experts.
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Chat: How a Supreme Court case could turbocharge gerrymandering
How much worse can gerrymandering get? Will the Supreme Court strike down a landmark voting rights law? We asked two experts.
https://bit.ly/4cAfaI5
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reposted by
Nicholas Stephanopoulos
Stephen Wolf
about 2 months ago
An informative interview with
@justinlevitt.bsky.social
&
@profnickstephan.bsky.social
. Among other things, they discuss how the Supreme Court could make seemingly small changes to the Voting Rights Act that make VRA§2 redistricting lawsuits virtually impossible without deeming it unconstitutional
add a skeleton here at some point
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After Bost, standing could largely disappear as an issue in election law cases -- at least if plaintiffs can get a candidate to join the suit. If only we had known this in Whitford, the whole history of partisan gerrymandering might be different.
3 months ago
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I wrote this essay for NYU's democracy project on the critical need to curb "misalignment" in American politics. Notably, misalignment is pervasive even when (as in 2024) the presidential candidate preferred by voters wins the election.
democracyproject.org/posts/curbin...
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Curbing Misalignment in American Politics
A broad range of views on democracy to help break the stalemate caused by partisan conflict.
https://democracyproject.org/posts/curbing-misalignment-in-american-politics
3 months ago
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I just posted "Redistricting Without Tradeoffs," forthcoming in
@columlrev.bsky.social
, on SSRN. The article relies on huge sets of computer-generated district maps to show that tradeoffs between redistricting criteria are much less common than is often thought.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Redistricting Without Tradeoffs
<div> The law of redistricting is built on the assumption that tradeoffs among line-drawing criteria are pervasive. This view helps explain crucial elements of
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5900143
4 months ago
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reposted by
Nicholas Stephanopoulos
Election Law Clinic at Harvard Law School
4 months ago
Watch how gerrymandering has changed the partisan skew of the U.S. House and state legislatures with the newest PlanScore update!
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Check out this cool new feature on PlanScore, showing the U.S. House's aggregate bias over time. Here's 2024 (with estimated scores for the states that have redrawn their maps since then):
planscore.org#!2026-ushouse
5 months ago
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PlanScore has been updated to include 2024 scores for all congressional, state senate, and state house plans. Check it out:
planscore.org#!2024-stateh...
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PlanScore
PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...
https://planscore.org/#!2024-statehouse
5 months ago
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Victory in our New York VRA case against Newburgh! The Court of Appeals unanimously held that the town lacks capacity to facially challenge the statute. So our case continues to trial, and the dilution of the town's minority voters' influence may still be fixed.
www.nycourts.gov/ctapps/Decis...
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https://www.nycourts.gov/ctapps/Decisions/2025/Nov25/84opn25-Decision.pdf
5 months ago
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What an irony it would be if Republicans, by initiating this unnecessary and unprecedented mid-decade redistricting war, ended up costing themselves the House.
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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Possibly of more interest to election law folks: The court really understood the various measures of partisan fairness. It correctly dismissed the state's preferred metrics, partisan bias and the mean-median difference, as inapplicable in an uncompetitive state like Utah.
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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My response to Sachs and Kleinfeld's article advocating parents voting for their children is now up. My idea is to have young adults -- not parents -- vote on behalf of children due to their greater partisan and ideological similarity.
ndlawreview.org/give-young-a...
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Give Young Adults The Vote | Notre Dame Law Review
ARTICLE Give Young Adults The Vote Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos* Joshua Kleinfeld and Stephen Sachs make a significant contribution to the literature on children’s disenfranchisement by describing and d...
https://ndlawreview.org/give-young-adults-the-vote/
5 months ago
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Some more problems with this CA racial gerrymandering claim: - The suit's main evidence is some commentary by a mapmaker. But it's the LEGISLATURE'S intent that counts here, not what a line-drawer may have thought.
electionlawblog.org?p=152920
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The Complaint Filed By Republicans Against the Maps Created by California's Prop 50 Raising Racial Gerrymandering and Intentional Discrimination Claims Faces an Uphill Battle, Especially Given 2026 Ti...
You can find the complaint here. The main argument in the case is that plaintiffs engaged in a racial gerrymander by making race the predominant factor in drawing district lines without s compelling r...
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152920
5 months ago
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Nice story about the "billionaires' brief" filed by
@electionclinic.bsky.social
arguing on behalf of Mark Cuban and others that Maine's limit on Super PAC donations doesn't materially burden their speech and serves critical state interests.
www.sportico.com/law/analysis...
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Mark Cuban Joins Legal Fight Against Dark Money and Super PACs
Through a brief authored by the Election Law Clinic at Harvard Law School, Mark Cuban and 4 other billionaires argue in favor of Maine's SuperPAC law.
https://www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2025/mark-cuban-super-pacs-dark-money-maine-harvard-law-school-1234875671/
5 months ago
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HLS's Election Law Clinic filed this amicus brief yesterday on behalf of Mark Cuban and other wealthy Americans, urging the First Circuit to uphold Maine's limit on Super PAC contributions. Not all rich people want to distort elections in their favor!
www.hlselectionlaw.org/s/20251029_F...
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https://www.hlselectionlaw.org/s/20251029_Filed-Amicus-Curiae-Brief.pdf
6 months ago
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To clarify, this lawsuit is under the NY Constitution, NOT the NY Voting Rights Act (which only applies to political subdivisions in NY). The suit argues that the NY Constitution should be read to adopt the same vote dilution standard as the NYVRA.
add a skeleton here at some point
6 months ago
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Some more concerns about the SG's proposal in Callais: 1. At present, the first Gingles prong focuses on the availability of remedies. The SG's proposal would make it a probe for racial predominance -- the crux of the distinct theory of racial gerrymandering.
electionlawblog.org?p=152738
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More Concerns About the SG’s Proposal in Callais #ELB
I’ve already discussed a number of problems with the SG’s proposal in Callais (that plaintiffs’ demonstrative maps be required to achieve jurisdictions’ political objectives). Upon further reflection,...
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152738
6 months ago
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This is a nice story about our ongoing anti-competitive gerrymandering suit against Wisconsin's congressional map. I like the demonstrative map in the piece -- look how much more competitive WI's districts could be!
urbanmilwaukee.com/2025/10/22/d...
6 months ago
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Another problem with the SG's proposal in Callais is that it's refuted by Section 2's legislative history. Lots of participants in the '82 hearings thought of the SG's idea that political goals excuse racial vote dilution. And they all believed the idea didn't apply.
electionlawblog.org?p=152656
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Section 2’s Legislative History Refutes the SG’s Proposal #ELB
I’ve previously noted a number of problems with the SG’s proposal in Callais, under which demonstrative maps would have to achieve the enacted plan’s political goals in order to satisfy the first Ging...
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152656
6 months ago
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The deputy SG drastically understated the number of districts that would be stripped of legal protection under the administration's proposal in Callais. He said about 15 districts would be affected -- the actual number is close to 70.
electionlawblog.org?p=152614
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Misleading Claims About Affected Districts #ELB
Toward the end of his argument in Callais, Hashim Mooppan seemed to assert that neutering Section 2 would affect only about fifteen congressional districts. In his words, “there are only 15 majority-B...
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152614
6 months ago
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reposted by
Nicholas Stephanopoulos
Rick Hasen
6 months ago
Watch Archived Video of
@law.ucla.edu
Safeguarding Democracy Project Webinar: “Redistricting and Re-Redistricting Controversies and the 2026 Elections”
www.youtube.com/watch?v=x063...
@mcpli.bsky.social
@profnickstephan.bsky.social
Guy Charles and Moon Duchin
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Redistricting and Re-redistricting Controversies and the 2026 Elections
YouTube video by Safeguarding Democracy Project UCLA Law
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x063QgJv84I
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I wrote this ELB post on a less radical resolution to Callais that may be appealing to some justices. The idea is just to hold that compliance with Section 2 isn't a compelling interest that can justify what would otherwise be unlawful racial gerrymandering.
6 months ago
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Would anyone still sue under Section 2 if the AG's proposal was adopted? You already need an alternative map (matching the challenged plan's partisanship) to win a racial gerrymandering claim. To win a Section 2 claim, you'd have to do that -- plus satisfy the rest of the Gingles prongs and the TOC.
6 months ago
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Ironically, VRA plaintiffs would be better off if they had lost in Milligan. Alabama's "race-blind baseline" is legal nonsense. But it's much better for VRA plaintiffs than the SG's proposal -- under which southern states can just erase *all* minority representation.
6 months ago
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As I recently wrote, the SG's "moderate" proposal to merely "modify" the Gingles framework would still end Section 2 as we know it. By requiring plaintiffs to match the partisanship of challenged plans, it would block essentially all Section 2 claims in the South.
electionlawblog.org?p=152332
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Destroying Section 2 in Order to Save It #ELB
At first glance, the SG’s brief in Callais seems less radical than those of the appellees and of Louisiana. The latter argue that Section 2 is flatly unconstitutional, while the SG’s brief merely reco...
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152332
6 months ago
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The stakes were lower than in today's Callais argument, but I had the opportunity to argue for the New York VRA's constitutionality yesterday before the NY Court of Appeals. Case summary:
www.nycourts.gov/ctapps/summa...
Plaintiffs' brief:
static1.squarespace.com/static/60a55...
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https://www.nycourts.gov/ctapps/summaries/Daily/2025/October14.pdf
6 months ago
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I just posted a new paper, "Aligning Constitutional Law," exploring how the alignment principle could be incorporated into constitutional (not just election) law. I'll be giving the Constitution Day Lecture at Drake University today on the same subject.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Aligning Constitutional Law
At present, American constitutional law gives short shrift to the democratic value of alignment (congruence between governmental outputs and popular preferences
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5502803
7 months ago
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@nedfoley.bsky.social
has written this insightful article on Bracket Voting as a method of achieving what I call "alignment" between voters' preferences and elections' winners.
7 months ago
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I filed this amicus brief in Callais today. The main argument is that Section 2 doesn't require a court-imposed time limit because -- thanks to the Gingles framework -- it's already inherently self-limiting.
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
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https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-109/373466/20250903115330158_Sept%203%20Callais%20Brief%20FINAL.pdf
8 months ago
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My article, "Election Law for the New Electorate," is out in the Journal of Legal Analysis.
academic.oup.com/jla/article/...
Here's the abstract: The American electorate is transforming—undergoing its most sweeping changes in half a century.
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Election law for the new electorate
Abstract. The American electorate is transforming—undergoing its most sweeping changes in half a century. These shifts include the disappearance of income
https://academic.oup.com/jla/article/17/1/42/8244991
8 months ago
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My new article, "Redistricting Without Tradeoffs," has found a home in
@columlrev.bsky.social
. Here's the abstract; I'll be posting the piece soon.
8 months ago
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It's striking that members of the CA commission now agree that CA's congressional map should be redrawn if other states enact mid-decade gerrymanders. The goal here should be national partisan fairness. A redrawn CA map can serve that goal by offsetting gerrymanders elsewhere.
8 months ago
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We filed this brief defending the constitutionality of the NY Voting Rights Act. I'll be arguing the case in the NY Court of Appeals in October. The issue is pretty important: If the NYVRA somehow violates the Equal Protection Clause, then so do all disparate-impact laws.
t.co/3A2Vy4JvB4
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https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60a559b59cfc63389f67f892/t/689600d4885354540e6d3a4d/1754661076451/Clarke+v+Newburgh-RespBrf.pdf
https://t.co/3A2Vy4JvB4
8 months ago
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reposted by
Nicholas Stephanopoulos
Michael Albertus
8 months ago
My interview with election law expert
@profnickstephan.bsky.social
on
#Texas
Republicans' extreme partisan
#Gerrymandering
. Why the rare move threatens representation and the balance in the US House – and could spark widespread partisan redistricting. 👇
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“The mugger asked for a billion dollars, the keys to my house, and my first-born. I got him to agree to $200M (for now). I’m such a savvy negotiator.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/n...
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Columbia Agrees to $200 Million Fine to Settle Fight With Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/nyregion/columbia-trump-funding-deal.html
9 months ago
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The decision to reargue Callais is confusing. The most plausible rationale for reargument is getting into the Section 2 merits of the preceding lawsuit. But this case simply isn't about Section 2. So it's a terrible vehicle for a blockbuster ruling about the VRA.
10 months ago
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My reaction to the HLR leak is that they take article selection extraordinarily seriously. 400+ memos totaling 2000+ pages? And that’s just one stage of their process? Geesh. When I ran YLS’s international law journal, we just met and talked about submissions.
10 months ago
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The unpopularity of the Republican megabill highlights the distinctions between different kinds of alignment (the subject of my recent book). In partisan terms, the unified Republican government aligns with voters' preferences. Voters wanted a Republican President and Congress.
10 months ago
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This is one of many stories on how Trump could use the government’s power to injure Musk—without ever mentioning the legality of these tactics. They’d all be illegal! As with Trump’s attacks on Harvard, he can’t try to hurt Musk because of his political views.
www.axios.com/2025/06/07/t...
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Musk has money, but Trump has power
Virtually everything Musk does has huge exposure to the levers of government.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/07/trump-musk-feud-tesla
10 months ago
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This new suit brought by
@electionclinic.bsky.social
, Law Forward, and Stafford Rosenbaum LLP alleges that Wisconsin's congressional plan is an unconstitutional anti-competitive gerrymander. The plan mirrors its 2011 predecessor, which a federal court found had the aim of protecting incumbents.
10 months ago
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While the court (plausibly) held that there was no impending attack on the FEC's independence and bipartisanship, the court agreed with
@electionclinic.bsky.social
's amicus brief (filed on behalf of
@ellenlweintraub.bsky.social
) that these aspects of the agency are vital.
10 months ago
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There's a bad take in this Crimson article that the administration's latest attack on Harvard is legal because, unlike the original Trump travel ban, it isn't motivated by religious animus. But religious animus isn't the only way to violate the First Amendment!
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
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Trump Issues Proclamation Banning International Students at Harvard From Entering U.S. | News | The Harvard Crimson
United States President Donald Trump issued a proclamation Wednesday evening barring foreign students from entering the United States to attend Harvard, citing national security concerns and accusing ...
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/6/5/trump-international-students-ban/
11 months ago
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It doesn’t matter how many more ways the administration comes up with to hurt Harvard. They’re all violations of the First Amendment: attempted punishments of Harvard for its political views, which would be rescinded in an instant if Harvard bent the knee.
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11 months ago
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If we’re going to start making up exceptions to a made-up theory that forbids independent agencies, the Fed shouldn’t be the only one. E.g., there are excellent reasons why electoral agencies (the FEC and EAC) should be independent — so the President can’t manipulate elections in his favor.
11 months ago
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