New post: Introducing RAPM for transition stats. Which players are pushing the puck up ice driving creating more time in the offensive zone? It turns out play on entries has a far greater impact that play on exits. open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

Top 10 Projected Players by Position for 2025-26: Defencemen Quinn Hughes begins the season as the Norris favourite for 2025-26. Dallas is the only team with multiple showings here, with Harley at 10th and Heiskanen in the top 5. 📈 lb-hockey.com

New post: Introducing RAPM for transition stats. Which players are pushing the puck up ice driving creating more time in the offensive zone? It turns out play on entries has a far greater impact that play on exits. open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

It appears the NHL has spent some time standardizing its shift reports over the past few seasons. Short OTF shifts (10 seconds or less starting and ending OTF without a stoppage in between) have steadily dropped over each of the last three seasons to just over 50% of the previous rate

It appears the NHL has spent some time standardizing its shift reports over the past few seasons. Short OTF shifts (10 seconds or less starting and ending OTF without a stoppage in between) have steadily dropped over each of the last three seasons to just over 50% of the previous rate

New post: Jason Robertson is really, really good at hockey, even if it's not always obvious puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/just-how-g...

New post: Jason Robertson is really, really good at hockey, even if it's not always obvious puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/just-how-g...

Why points are overrated as a stat (but still useful), and also a quick overview on how content at The Five Hohl will look like for this season. link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

New post: A statistical deep-dive into how Jake Oettinger compares to his peers over the past three seasons and where he should rank going forward puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/just-how-g...

New post: A statistical deep-dive into how Jake Oettinger compares to his peers over the past three seasons and where he should rank going forward puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/just-how-g...

⬡⬢⬡ New Model at HockeyViz ⬡⬢⬡ This year's new version of my model for estimating player impacts on 5v5 chance rates. Read all the details here: hockeyviz.com/txt/magnus9EV

The Modano is 14.99? Does Mike Babcock run this deli?

I'm gonna put a chapter in my (upcoming! soonly!) shot rate model write-up about this but as a preview: the player talent distribution in an apex league is not normal and in fact it's more skewed than would match the way we "normally" talk about talent. (This is forwards, generating offence.)

New Post: Estimating shot speed by shot type using game-by-game NHL EDGE data that I scraped myself. Plus, controlling for man power and blocked shots. Some surprising results and a possible source of improvement for public xG models puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/nhl-edge-e...

New Post: Estimating shot speed by shot type using game-by-game NHL EDGE data that I scraped myself. Plus, controlling for man power and blocked shots. Some surprising results and a possible source of improvement for public xG models puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/nhl-edge-e...

New article up on LB-Hockey! 🚨🏒 We showcase players’ willingness to engage in high-contact areas and ability to succeed when pressured, along with how it correlates to team success & player development. It also introduces a new free visualization: the Battle Grid! 🔗: lb-hockey.com/2025/08/13/d...

I also think it's worth emphasising that, as with all of these lists, the numbers are just random guesses. There is no empirical method, it's just "How likely do you think it is that computers will be able to do this task in the future?" and then the poll respondents pick a number at random.

New post: What happens when Analytics Darlings are promoted out of depth roles? puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/do-analyti...

New post: What happens when Analytics Darlings are promoted out of depth roles? puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/do-analyti...

New Tool for LB-Hockey! 🚨🏒 Free agency is fast approaching so what better time to launch our new viz: the Contract Projector! Here, you can project player worth over their current contracts, compare it with their market expectation, and predict the likelihood for extensions of various lengths.

Brad Marchand is a champian for the second time

For some reason I wrote 3,000 words about why I think Cody Ceci is uniquely valued in the NHL open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

For some reason I wrote 3,000 words about why I think Cody Ceci is uniquely valued in the NHL open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

The more I watch Skinner against 31 other teams, the angrier I get.

*refs miss call, call major penalty to review* Dave Jackson: That’s the right call, you want to get it right *refs miss call, don’t review* Dave Jackson: That’s the right call, you don’t want to rely on replay review

Are Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner too "soft" for the playoffs? Just based on the distribution of Toronto's unblocked shots when they're on the ice, it would appear so, as both players have consistently had more trouble getting to the dangerous areas than they do in the regular season

The 'this core can't win' narrative emanating from Toronto is lazy. They drafted a good contention core with high picks from 2012-2016. The current leafs rebounded from their bottom similarly to recent cup champions and were positioned to become a true contender 5 years ago (1/2)

Are Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner too "soft" for the playoffs? Just based on the distribution of Toronto's unblocked shots when they're on the ice, it would appear so, as both players have consistently had more trouble getting to the dangerous areas than they do in the regular season

The NHL's API includes more detail about shots than ever before, including detail about how shots missed the net.

The NHL's API includes more detail about shots than ever before, including detail about how shots missed the net.

It’s LB-Hockey’s 1st birthday! So what better time to cover all the tools hosted on the website 📈 As a thank you to all who support the site, everyone who reposts this thread will receive a free 1-month trial to lb-hockey.com! Now let’s explore some visualizations 🧵

Mikko Rantanen's contract puts a lot of pressure on the Stars to win now. A look at the upcoming cap crunch and whether Rantanen is a $12m/year player: www.defendingbigd.com/lets-talk-ab...

Mikko Rantanen's contract puts a lot of pressure on the Stars to win now. A look at the upcoming cap crunch and whether Rantanen is a $12m/year player: www.defendingbigd.com/lets-talk-ab...

Jake Oettinger's just going through his usual game 60-70 slump

Wrote a full article about this: a look at in-zone versus possession/transition play, how correlated are they and when is one not enough to make up for the other? Who excels at both? open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

NHL power plays are the best they've been in 40 years prashanthiyer.substack.com/p/nhl-power-...

Wrote a full article about this: a look at in-zone versus possession/transition play, how correlated are they and when is one not enough to make up for the other? Who excels at both? open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

Aaron Ekblad has been suspended for 20 games, without pay, for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.

If you want something to kill time during deadline day, here's a pretty good chat from the summer we had with Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky that gives you an idea on how he operates. www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-X-...

We can also look at team offensive styles using zone time and in-zone xGF rates. Carolina is again a huge outlier relative to the rest of the league. The correlation between the two is slightly stronger for offense than defense (0.07) 1/7 bsky.app/profile/lady...

Of course, goaltending has a huge impact too, and Florida's goaltending compared to its two most likely first round opponents (Toronto and Tampa) has not been good this year

We can also look at team offensive styles using zone time and in-zone xGF rates. Carolina is again a huge outlier relative to the rest of the league. The correlation between the two is slightly stronger for offense than defense (0.07) 1/7 bsky.app/profile/lady...

Using NHL EDGE's zone time numbers, we can look at how well every team defends at even strength when they're in their own zone. Interestingly, defensive zone time and in-zone xGA/60 are almost completely uncorrelated (correlation of -0.01 atm) 1/6

Using NHL EDGE's zone time numbers, we can look at how well every team defends at even strength when they're in their own zone. Interestingly, defensive zone time and in-zone xGA/60 are almost completely uncorrelated (correlation of -0.01 atm) 1/6

New for DBD: the Stars’ defense is built on feet of clay, but can the rest of the roster keep it from toppling over? www.defendingbigd.com/can-the-star...

My plan to build a one stop shop for NHL Salary Cap and Analytics continues. I have enhanced the Player Stats tab on team pages with the addition of skater, goalie, forward line and defense pair advanced statistics. Simply select the desired report. thestanleycap.com/teams/edmont...

New for DBD: the Stars’ defense is built on feet of clay, but can the rest of the roster keep it from toppling over? www.defendingbigd.com/can-the-star...

Hits are a silly stat, but NHL teams are still fascinated with them. With the trade deadline just 3 weeks away it’s worth revisiting them in the context of playoff performance. 1st step is trying to remove some of the noise in one of the NHL's most subjective stats open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

Hits are a silly stat, but NHL teams are still fascinated with them. With the trade deadline just 3 weeks away it’s worth revisiting them in the context of playoff performance. 1st step is trying to remove some of the noise in one of the NHL's most subjective stats open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

My conclusion has shifted on this a bit. I think right handedness specifically has minimal/no impact that’s not already captured by macro stats bsky.app/profile/lady...