Pionk

How could anyone see this coming? He says in only partial jest.

I'm going to be in Toronto in 2 weeks for 2 weeks. Not a lot of free time but some. Any suggestions? Food, entertainment, etc.

I feel like this blog from @garrethohl.bsky.social is analogous to batting average in baseball: it isn’t an outcome statistic for how good a hitter is, but that doesn’t mean it is useless for analyzing how good a hitter is. thefivehohl.substack.com/p/points-are...

Why points are overrated as a stat (but still useful), and also a quick overview on how content at The Five Hohl will look like for this season. link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

Ken Dryden played only 7 full NHL seasons, and this is what he did in them: 1971: Conn Smythe + Cup 1972: Calder Trophy 1973: Vezina + Cup 1974: Sits out (contract dispute) and earns his law degree 1976: Vezina + Cup 1977: Vezina + Cup 1978: Vezina + Cup 1979: Vezina + Cup

A sneak peak, the tentative title is: Player Points Totals Are Extremely Overrated (but still useful and meaningful)

Ugh wrote a The Five Hohl article but it's not quite ready for tomorrow. Sorry...

Jets best defender doesn’t get an invite but their 5th best does.

Quick look into the #NHLJets extending Samberg, Vilardi, and Barron, plus a look into year four with the 2025-26 season for The Five Hohl. #GoJetsGo open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

FYI: There's some polls at the end and comments are open to give some insight and direction for TFH moving forward.

Quick look into the #NHLJets extending Samberg, Vilardi, and Barron, plus a look into year four with the 2025-26 season for The Five Hohl. #GoJetsGo open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

👀

Wheeler was fun as an analytics proponent as I was told I was overly positive for that 28-33 seasons, and then by the same people was told I was a hater for 34-36.

Happy retirement to Blake Wheeler. He had one of the better age-thirty seasons that I can think of.

Kevin Kan one of the two viz people that relentlessly make me say "damn I should have done that, even if I would not have done it as well". Deserves to have money poured on his head, inverse scrooge-mcduck style. (The other is An Nguyen but this post is about Kevin.)

May be old news, but I saw Carolina announced some hirings/promotions. Dennis King, part of the old school Oilogosphere, was hired. Kevin Kan, created cool vizs under Data Rink, was promoted.

The secret to adding 165lbs to your squat in 4 weeks: Step 1: get decently "not weak" Step 2: get injured and/or take a lot of time off Step 3: start working out again Step 4: ???? Step 5: Profit

Not letting kids in the backyard for a few days. That’s basketball sized!

Who is Gustav Nyquist? Where does he fit on the #NHLJets? What does the organizational depth look like now and how do we project the #gojetsgo to perform next year? Link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

Looking back at Ehlers tenure as a Jet, I'm just sad they never tried the Niederreiter-Lowry-Ehlers line I always wanted to see.

Who is Gustav Nyquist? Where does he fit on the #NHLJets? What does the organizational depth look like now and how do we project the #gojetsgo to perform next year? Link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

Great work. I brought up two questions here:

Anhorn is a good AHL re-signing. I was also just about to edit my article on Winnipeg/Manitoba’s organizational depth so now to rewrite lol

After years and years of doing this hockey analytics thing I keep finding evidence suggesting experts are actually very good with determining direction of impacts but struggle with the relative scale with trade offs.

Jets lost their best player relative to usage, but his usage was limited... Sure, that sucks that they didn't get the most they could have from him... BUT, if you want a silver lining, it means that his actual loss isn't as bad because they didn't get optimal value anyways.

This is neither criticism nor complement. Just a funny coincidence.

This also suggests the #NHLJets are also out on the Ehlers sweepstakes.

#NHLJets add a veteran forward in Nyquist who helps special teams but is quite leaky defensively at 5v5. Useful middle-six forward, more of a 3rd liner than 2nd line.

Quick Free Agency Review Grading the #NHLJets first day in free agency, and looking at what the team needs moving forward. #GoJetsGo Link: open.substack.com/pub/thefivehoh…

There's no such thing as a "nothing" contract. You either add or subtract value in proportion to cap. And that player either adds or subtracts on-ice value in proportion to minutes. The Florida Panthers make it seem obvious. The rest of the NHL doesn't.

Alright folks. Going to the beach with the girls. Have fun.

Any questions for my post-opening-FA day analysis?

Any questions for my post-opening-FA day analysis?

If it’s one thing the Jets have done lately, it’s focus on speed… oh

#NHLJets Tanner Pearson was one time a good hockey player, and well before that a teammate of Scheifele.

#NHLJets Koepke has good results for a depth forward in limited usage last year. Always have to be careful with such players but worth a depth gamble.

Every year I have people (including analytics leaning individuals) telling me that we should reliably trust decision makers and give them the benefit of the doubt... And then every year I stare at free agency/trade deadline in disbelief. The NHL market is still very inefficient.

Informal, non-academic poll: How long do you view Jets' competitive window at this moment in time?

Who are the #NHLJets, what do they need, and who should they add? What would I do if I were Kevin Cheveldayoff (Part 2: Free agency)... Link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

Day two of the Draft: Who did the #NHLJets pick and what does the organization depth look like now? #gojetsgo link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

So... is Ehlers the best UFA now?

AFP analytics estimated a 700k discount for Ekblad based on "tax-free state" while actual AAV discount was $1.7M. State taxes have a real impact, but there's a lot more there than just that. Winning, city desirability (which semi-correlates with income taxes), role, family wishes, etc. all matter.

There's three tiers for the top UFA wingers looking at the last two seasons performance: Tier 1: Marchand, Marner, Ehlers Tier 2: Drouin and Mangiapane Tier 3: Boeser

10 years ago I looked at 2 groups of mid-to-late first round drafted defenders: Above avg height but below average scoring versus the opposite. The idea that certain types are “safer” because they potentially have lower depth roles is both lie (safety) and truth (lower roles).

10 years ago I looked at 2 groups of mid-to-late first round drafted defenders: Above avg height but below average scoring versus the opposite. The idea that certain types are “safer” because they potentially have lower depth roles is both lie (safety) and truth (lower roles).

A little noisy with the player detail but here is the average age of the 2025 NHL draft class by team.

It’s a hard life

Who is Sascha Boumedienne? How does he fit in the #NHLJets' cupboards and what should they target today? #GoJetsGo Link: open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...