An essay on what happened in Hungary:

What are the stakes for One Nation - and perhaps more importantly, the Liberals - in the byelections over the coming weeks? Zareh Ghazerian & I on the big questions facing the parties here lens.monash.edu/pauline-hans...

What are the stakes for One Nation - and perhaps more importantly, the Liberals - in the byelections over the coming weeks? Zareh Ghazerian & I on the big questions facing the parties here lens.monash.edu/pauline-hans...

It is remarkable how reliable this is. ONP was up, and it was a question of the future of populism, now they’re down and it’s their failure, the actual government is ambiguously kind of supporting a war, there’s inflation coming, fuel prices are up, but through it all the Greens stay on 12

Some of the best journalism on party finance and organisational structure I've seen in a long time. Much of it aligning with a known pattern over decades, but still interesting to see - and adds to my suspicion of PHON as a lasting force. www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

If Matt Goodwin is speaking in Budapest, 5pm today, he has kept v quiet about being there. He posted extensively about Hungary's 2018, 2022 election results, but nothing at all on 2026

What a joy it was to wake up in Australia this morning to the news out of Hungary. A wonderful day for my Hungarian friends and colleagues, and a reminder for the rest of us that politics is always open and contingent, that nothing is destiny. What a great day.

The bleak trend in new openings in politics academic jobs should be clearly explained to prospective PhD applicants. Landing an academic job is much, much harder than it was a few years ago.

It's always good to have a target market

If we are lucky, Victoria might actually be able to elect a properly democratic upper house this November. Time to put old mate Glenn Druery out of business

🚨What you won't read in the British media: on X, journalist @twelves.bsky.social has looked at Matt Goodwin's new book, Suicide of a Nation, and found that is packed full of fake quotes and material that appears to have been made up by AI.

Following the SA election, keep seeing some version of "One Nation got 22% of the total vote, but only 0 or 1 or 2 seats haha". Sure. That's the electoral system. If we had proportional rep, people would not be laughing. They also got 24% in the Upper House, where they will win probably 3 seats.

Um, the second-biggest party in the polls right now is One Nation. Populism has arguably never been as "alive" in Australia as this very moment.

Um, the second-biggest party in the polls right now is One Nation. Populism has arguably never been as "alive" in Australia as this very moment.

Clive Palmer and Ralph Babet reunited at last

I keep looking at these projections thinking that the one big thing that could arrest ON's rise is seriously-well-funded community independents in the McGowan mode in every single Coalition seat. But there are real limits to waiting on one guy/organisation to fund those for the good of lib democracy

One Nation (Hansonist) One Nation (Ashbyist) One Nation (Joyceist) One Nation (Queensland) One Nation (City/Country) One Nation (MAGA) One Nation (Hansonist-Joyceist-Katterist) One Nation (Patriotic) One Nation (United Patriots) One Nation (Reform) One Nation (Parliamentary) One Nation (Bernardiist)

If this actually happened, within a year we would have more One Nation splinter parties than there are Nepali communist parties

Anglosphere agony vs Nordic nirvana. (PS Can't believe I'd never seen this graph before, so grateful to @stephenkb.bsky.social for sharing in his fab morning newsletter (www.ft.com/inside-polit...)

Matt Canavan elected as Nationals leader and Clive Palmer announces he will run again for Parliament. What a bumper day for right-wing populism in Australia.

I know I wrote the book on populism and performance, but god, I didn't mean the performance thing literally

🎉 New publication 😍 The 4th wave of the #farright is marked by #mainstreaming & #normalisation - but how can we distinguish between them? In our new article, @gefjonoff.bsky.social and I map the existing literature, introduce a conceptual framework & outline research avenues. doi.org/10.1017/S147...

Well done to Nigel Farage for convincing Matt Goodwin to run for an urban seat with a large ethnic minority population. I think we now can be sure who did the numbers for Revolt on the Right.

*deep breath* a hahah ahHahahahahHAhahahhahhhaaaaaaaaaheeheeeeee heehehe

Blimey. Looks like Matt Goodwin, who seems to think the Handmaid's Tale is an instruction manual, is in the pay of an Orban think tank, funded by Russian oil money.

CALL FOR CHAPTERS! Me and @grahammacklin.bsky.social are putting together an edited collection looking at the use of pseudoscientific ideas by extremist movements. If you are interested, please send us your abstracts at this link: forms.gle/mAUtpDGNEj9i...

Great piece by the two academics in Oz who knows One Nation best. I am increasingly worried that we can't assume the infighting/dysfunction will continue though - and even if it does, whether relying on this position is too passive at a time when they are soaring in the polls.

I think there is something to this argument. The Greens have been almost invisible since the Federal Election in May - their return to polite 'constructive' reformism clearly isn't cutting through or working

What Sofia is too modest to explicitly say in her post below, is that - in addition to our PRR youth wings book - she has a solo one coming out with OUP in June on grassroots women in the PRR: global.oup.com/academic/pro...

Are visual strategies distinctive to populism? Francesco Melito & @mattiazulianello.bsky.social examine how political parties’ comms teams strategise, based on original interviews with professionals working directly with Italian parties. Read more: buff.ly/VNboEXh @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social

"The other iron law of reactionary centrism – beyond the asymmetry that is hiding behind the seeming evenhandedness – is that only the left and liberals really have agency." Brilliant column by @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social

A correction for the ages (from The Guardian's review of 'Melania'):

Reupping this now Bernardi has formally announced it. Seeing a lot of "hahaha this guy" in press coverage but I think unfortunately it's probably a very canny move and ON will get big numbers in the South Australian election in March. Not sure who the joke will be on then.

Coming out in June. (when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)

🔥 NEW ARTICLE ALERT 🔥 The five spatial political logics of populism: An analytical framework and research agenda for studying the populist politicisation of space from the local to the transnational in @bjpir.bsky.social with Benjamin de Cleen & Panos Panayotu journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Very good piece by Murray Goot on why compulsory voting has not 'saved' us from the rise of the far right insidestory.org.au/is-compulsor...

some large-sample survey work we did last year found that the best groups for One Nation were older renters, and older voters reporting high levels of financial insecurity

I should also note - I seriously doubt Hanson will be able to keep Joyce, Bernardi, and now possibly Antic & Giles, together & united in one party until the next election. But I also think "don't worry, they'll implode" is a risky & potentially stupid strategy to take, esp if ON polling continues

Re: Cory Bernardi joining One Nation - yes, he's a joke, but this will do the trick in terms of a) keeping the media focused on ON - and I think all this attention is helping them greatly in the polls b) adding a strong & prominent 'Christian values' face to the party

🔥 NEW ARTICLE ALERT 🔥 The five spatial political logics of populism: An analytical framework and research agenda for studying the populist politicisation of space from the local to the transnational in @bjpir.bsky.social with Benjamin de Cleen & Panos Panayotu journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Part 2, on the online right, out now: “The convergence of monetary incentives with ideologically charged engagement produces a kind of ambient extremism in contemporary politics…” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Well it finally happened. And you can't half tell Goodwin has studied populism listening to this speech - check out the grab - "I am not part of the establishment"(!) youtu.be/OtcnYXnPyes?...

Some people point to Reform UK as a scary example of what could happen in Aus if ON got on a roll, but if we had similar polls to what the UK has right now, our electoral system means the main question would be "will Labor govern with Greens+teals or will they seek a grand coalition with the Libs?"

There's polling today that suggests on current numbers One Nation could win 30+ seats. Here's a quick thread of why I think this is *very* unlikely to actually pan out Now, a federal election probably won't be until early 2028, and a lot could change, but here's why I'm not too worried now 1/14

Journalists covering local politics fall in this trap constantly. "Back to Basics" and even "The Three Rs: Roads Rates and Rubbish" are used by reactionary and far right actors because that's how they perceive of their own agenda.

New year and new article out in @ausjpolsci.bsky.social with Mark Chou, Rachel Busbridge & Luke Dean: Mapping the ‘fringe’ in Australian local politics We provide the first systematic analysis of fringe candidates in the 2024 NSW & VIC local government elections. 🧵

New year and new article out in @ausjpolsci.bsky.social with Mark Chou, Rachel Busbridge & Luke Dean: Mapping the ‘fringe’ in Australian local politics We provide the first systematic analysis of fringe candidates in the 2024 NSW & VIC local government elections. 🧵