“We are only the 7th largest defence exporter in the world, well behind France and even slightly behind Italy.” …which is important as it underpins the national Defence Industrial Base needed for wartime resilience. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

This is incredible. Knock yourself out, Russian intel services. “A person familiar with the matter …said analysts at the agency were verbally informed that they were not to follow or report on Russian threats, even though this had previously been a main focus for the agency.” Cc @ciaranm.bsky.social

rusi.org/explore-our-... Agree all written here by @MTSavill 👇 Book mark it too, as it is a good reference doc for hard numbers on defence spending.

‼️ EMERGENCY EDITION ‼️ Is NATO finished? Can Europe defend itself without the USA? Air Marshal @edstringer.bsky.social talks to @gavinesler.bsky.social about the enormity of this moment in history… and why there might be hope. Listen 📲 linktr.ee/DrillPod

Hi All, Just sent this out. Its been more than a year since the narratives of Ukraine about to collapse started. These were always overblown and overestimated Russian strength and seemed set on undermining Ukrainian resistance. And yet, they did great damage. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

A half-hour conversation with @gavinesler.bsky.social Both of us hoping not to be overtaken by events before the end of the day… podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Insightful interview by @gavinesler.bsky.social with @edstringer.bsky.social: »Can #Europe cope with the threat of an expansionist #Russia on its Eastern flank, and a #US President who shows no interest in shared values and alliances?« for @thisisnotadrillpod.bsky.social.

Worth doing a careful audit of two things: The current state of the Russian front-line forces. The trajectory of the Russian economy and its likely capacity to adjust that. Otherwise one is negotiating blind.

Worth reposting this now we are no longer talking about contingent risks…

“The danger to Europe lies in the interplay of three crucial factors: American disengagement, Western European denialism and Russian determination.” Hard to disagree with @keirgiles.bsky.social Who will defend Europe? on.ft.com/3EG3xR4

A very good article from the FT that looks in some detail at how European Defence needs to reshape itself as the USA shifts focus - and loses patience… I contributed a few thoughts.

Worth a read👇 foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/r...

Macron has posed a good question recently: why do 500M rich Europeans seem to have events and outcomes imposed on them by Trump, Putin and Xi?

And the article goes far beyond the usual “something must be done”. I thought it was very balanced on individual countries involved. Do I still hope that none of this will be necessary? Of course

Some, quite senior, folk have objected to our article’s ‘scare-mongering’. I disagree, we may want to maintain the status quo but it is negligent not to prepare for foreseeable ‘events, dear boy…’ I explained this position in an article back in February: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02...

Thank you @helenebismarck.bsky.social

Interesting point from @edstringer.bsky.social: "land battles in war reveal national strength, they don’t determine it."

"Assuming, as CDS does, that the associated economic drag on Russia’s economy will pull it down before the factors already mentioned force Ukraine to sue sounds like banking on a damn close run thing." @edstringer.bsky.social

This is worth reading

I’ve just looked at getting down to London some time this weekend…🫣and😱

My latest short piece for PX: What the UK Chief of Defence Staff’s annual lecture did, and didn’t, say… policyexchange.org.uk/blogs/annual...

Where is the betting on the UK Christmas No1?

Absolutely Lord Cameron. The UK Govt has had 645 days - more if you add in the pre-invasion warning time - when as framework nation of the Joint Expeditionary Force it could have built such a coalition of defence supply. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

This is vitally important. Interesting too that the conclusions push for an industrial policy that makes the UK a welcoming home for high-tech businesses. I agree. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Time to revisit the geopolitical calculus over ‘The West’s’ support for Ukraine. Some appear to be havering - which looks as if transactional considerations have overtaken the genuinely strategic.