Honestly though, I think this LC back and forth is a good example of one of the broader issues within liberal groups--it's people who don't have depth of expertise in NatSec arguing about things they clearly have no background in. NatSec is an afterthought for too many

Can we stop using "guanxi" like it's some esoteric concept? It just means relations, using the Chinese word for it doesn't make it something different. The PLA relied heavily on informal networks and relationships, that's all we need to say.

Ah glad Ive been so busy that I mostly missed the “knowing the engagement range of a DF-17 is fascist” discourse today. You know, the discourse that got us into this bc folks ceded understanding warfare to the crazies for fear of being shamed about Knowing Things: open.substack.com/pub/breaking...

Anyways this one I find fun, the PLARF uses different missile-range classifications than us. Which always drives me a little nuts when I see a US product on Chinese missiles 近程导弹 (short-range) <1,000km 中程导弹 (medium-range) 1,000-3,000km 远程导弹 (long-range) 3,000-8,000km 洲际导弹 (intercontinental) >8,000km

Wars start long before the first shots are fired

We can all quibble with some of the details, but @bafriedman.bsky.social nails the core of the problem--D natsec base is slim and unpopular, and the issue just gets punted. You can't not do this work and can't not have a serious plan, especially in 2026... Things aren't getting safer.

One of the most awe-inspiring things to be able to witness, and something generations of people have not been able to experience. Amongst all the other craziness, this is at least one thing we're doing right.

This sounds like it is, quite possibly, the most insufferable book of all time.

I do think they’re trying to kill Paparo with stress at this point.

🎶First it was CENTCOM soaking up funds dropping GBU on shit you could kill with guns then it was CENTCOM once again and then it was CENTCOM again and again and again it was CENTCOM and then again it was CENTCOM again fuck when will it end🎶 open.spotify.com/track/7HjR4I...

And so our return begins. To the next chapter of humanity beyond our pale blue dot. There is so much more out there for us than our screens and grievances limit us to day to day.

Man if you take a swing at Diego Garcia and dont understand missile operations well enough to use more than two...

lol USAID was already doing that also the “organization of public diplomacy” you’re looking for is (or was) the US Department of State.

Finally, some reasonable solutions--it's time to nuke a canal. www.chinatalk.media/p/its-time

I'm somehow seeing Trump conservatives quoting John Locke as if it's supposed to be in defense of their stances and... I don't know what to do with this.

I'm reposting this before even watching because Frank Kendall is always on my watch list and any decent administration next will have him front of the line to be SECDEF. That & the China Talk/2d Breakfast team always kills it.

Humankind: Engages in catastrophic warfare almost constantly for thousands of years Some weird sector of internet Christians: "OMG this is the one it's happening"

Honestly it's such a weird time to spent your career working China seriously

Look, what you've gotta understand is OBVIOUSLY the strategy is to bomb to regime change Iran so we can align them with us against China. 5D chessing everything

The only concern I have with a congressional candidate who wants to back Ukraine to the hilt, defend Taiwan, and impose costs on Israel for gross civilian harm is how much money I can donate to them. You fucking losers.

Well that's an unfortunate naming coincidence, but my Air Force days did not include flying planes or retiring in 1996. Don't train the PLA on how to kill us you fucks. www.justice.gov/opa/pr/forme...

This is the kind of things people say about the US before their entire fleet gets converted to coral reefs, they commit suicide in bunkers or get hanged for war crimes, or get buried at sea from the deck of an aircraft carrier.

Anyways, I'm very sick of having the majority of this field believe in shallow, universally applicable principles that seemingly solve everything, vs the understanding of nuance and complexity of unique situations that the field demands.

I really hate LinkedIn

Can we stop pretending "what would I do in their shoes" is a valid form of analysis? I don't care what you would do. I care about the decision from a complex system of foreign bureaucracies with differing interests, staffed by individuals with different cultures, history, and perspective than you.

Turns out it was there the whole time, who knew.

CSIS PONI's intro series have historically been quite good, and this follows in that tradition--worth a watch. Somehow large swathes of folks have lost the traditional Halperin/Schelling definition of arms control and adopted a narrow understanding of it that loses the actual aims and methods...

I don't understand how so many of the folks I know and talk to here clearly read a ton, but then still somehow post 10,000 times a day.

People would be wise to take all of the Zhang Youxia reporting with a grain of salt... There's a lot of speculation masquerading as authoritative analysis running around. Fact of the matter is very little is known besides the PLA's press releases, and Zhang and Liu are just the latest of many.

@jhu.edu just emailed out their alum magazine and gotta say, I was not exactly expecting the "ALUM ON ICE" cover story to be about... Ice skating.

Look, sometimes law enforcement issues get misinterpreted by folks with no experience in that world, but this seems incredibly clear and unambiguous.... www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...

I don't know who needs to hear this but please do not let the anon meme folks whose policy platforms include paying thousands of people to listen for enemy bombers over CONUS send you to the Ukrainian frontline.

Ok these clowns are either just a hilariously inept group of anonymous wannabes with laughable ideas, or the funniest recruiting op for the Ukrainian foreign legion around. I don't even know where to start with this. defenseanalyses.org/fellowship/

These DARC clowns were running around spending their time complaining about how useless and weak ideas coming out of think tanks were. Now they've started writing their own ideas and they're... 100 times worse. It's really easy to be a critic and complain, much harder to do. These are hard problems

It's been a... tiring year

Let's be real, this would solve a lot of problems--so long as it had a decent whiskey selection. The parties and happy hours are hollow, issues get hammered out a few whiskeys in at a dive on the back of a napkin.

As I get closer to the launch of my new book, THE MOST AWFUL RESPONSIBILITY, I have started to really in earnest update some pages relating to it. Here is one that contains photos relating to the book — some well-known, some unusual/rare. alexwellerstein.com/writing/book...

Separately, I remember when I was in grad school another student trying to make the argument that the Army was still the most important service in the PLA due to everything being called the People's Liberation Army, and having to try and explain all of this. Isn't language fun?

Gerald C. Brown examines the future trajectory of China’s #nuclear force as it shifts to a “world-class” #nuclearforce, including drivers, political objectives, employment, and capability developments in his chapter from the new book in NBR's PLA series. www.nbr.org/publication/... #China

Don't even know where to start

Folks are too busy wringing their hands about imaginary Chinese shifts to counterforce and not spending enough time countering actual PRC nuclear intent--checking US nuclear options to enable conventional ops.

In case you missed it, Kerry Brown wrote a book that plagiarized Shelley Rigger’s classic book title. I, along with others who were asked to review Kerry’s manuscript, said verbatim to change the title. In the most tacky and unprofessional fashion, he stole her title anyway.

What I never understand about these types of articles is the notion that these approaches are or should be mutually exclusive. The world's too complicated for that, and analysts and practitioners should not be observing global events through a singular worldview.

What is the CCP’s vision for the PLA as a world-class military, and how does it intend to use this force to attain other national goals? Read the intro to NBR's new book "The PLA's Long March toward a World-Class Military": www.nbr.org/publication/... #China #XiJinping #PLA

Curious about what China’s nuclear force is evolving into? Using Chinese primary sources, my latest publication from @nbr.org maps out what China is building and the goals it intends to serve. 🧵 www.nbr.org/publication/...

I've been yelling for folks to better understand the intersection of conventional and nuclear forces for quite some time, they don't work in isolation. Glad Adam dug into this, I'm looking forward to reading.

Really excited this is finally out, a breakdown of my own chapter on the direction, goals, and application of China's nuclear force can be found linked here: bsky.app/profile/gera...

NEW BOOK! "The PLA's Long March toward a World-Class Military" examines #XiJinping ’s requirement for the #PLA to achieve "world-class" status by midcentury and the role it will play in supporting the #ChineseCommunistParty 's pursuit of national rejuvenation: nbr.org/publication/...