Two thoughts tonight

Is it possible, and I'm just spitballing here that: Setting an artificial deadline for a ceasefire agreement and then rushing to meet it in order to save face creates a situation where: 1) Neither of the parties understand the exact agreement well 2) Misunderstanding creates ceasefire violations?

At least now I know what the Brits felt like watching their global prestige collapse during the Suez Crisis.

My off the cuff summary of the Iran War. I'm not an Iran expert. Seduced by tactical capabilities and pressure from Israel, Trump attacks. He thinks that protests will return to the streets and overthrow the regime or that if not, retaliation will be largely symbolic. Since he believes... 1/11

Me: "Ah, a peaceful, reflective Easter Morning. Christ is Risen." The President of the United States: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJC9...

There remains no viable alternative to having infantry go in with rifles and hold ground. Perhaps there will be on in the future. There is not one today.

The answer is that what they are trying to do is extremely hard, borderline impossible without ground troops. So the failure is not the inability to blow up every last missile, drone and launcher in Iran. The failure was political leaders thinking it would be easy to do so.

When I hear about top military leadership being fired, that the sitting President is running on "military buildup" for the November elections, my concerns are not limited to foreign policy.

I learned two things tonight: President Trump has embraced the long definition of the US in the Vietnam War (19 years, not just 1965-1973) The President and the SecrWar are paraphrasing Curtis LeMay. I am no clearer about our true objectives or policies toward Iran.

I really don’t want to see videos of American infantrymen getting hit with FPV drones. Keep our soldiers and marines out of harm’s way unless there is no other option. Supporting the troops doesn’t always mean supporting the war. Not every war is WW2.

I never served in the military. As a civilian, I did a 2 week instructor course at the CGSC so I could teach ROTC cadets. The instructors, and my fellow students, 95% of whom were in uniform, kept repeating, "the enemy gets a vote." I guess I need to update my slides.

I don't know if anyone cares but Re Iran: I am not sure if the US Gov't has a defined endstate in mind. I am not sure if the US Gov't knows what means should be employed to reach the unknown endstate. That could make for a short war. Iran gets a vote. I'm not sure it means a successful war.

I miss my father, but I'm a historian because of him, and we can mourn the present while delving into the grief of the past. I wrote a thing about a document I found @mhs1791.bsky.social and about how much the emotional weight of the journal meant to me--give it a read, if you're interested.

Pape is out in media noting that aerial bombing campaigns have never (not once) produced regime change in favor of the side doing the bombing

If you all have followed me for defense news, I'll take this opportunity to highly recommend starting on these reading lists.

Lots of people are surprisingly my speed

I've gained a ton of followers in the past couple of days: welcome everyone. At the risk of sounding ungrateful, does anyone know why?

The narrative that eighteenth-century soldiers were slow moving, ineffective automata who were only capable of engaging the enemy at insanely close range and quickly moved into hand-to-hand combat is one of the most widespread and damaging myths in military history. 1/6

Me when the messaging goes from: "This is a great economy, what are you talking about" to "This is Joe Biden's economy"

A lot of folks are comparing the shooting yesterday to the Boston Massacre. During the Boston Massacre, the 300+ protestors were throwing ice and chanting "fire" (ie, "shoot us") at the 9 British soldiers. Captain Thomas Preston, was trying to deescalate the situation without firing. 1/3

From my former student: “‘We must suppress leftwing protestors, make a non aggression pact with the Russians and make war with Denmark for territory’ Bruh America is just Bismarck’s Prussia at this point”

You literally can't make this stuff up.

"Young man, what we meant in fighting the British was this. We had always been free and we meant to be free always."-Captain Levi Preston on the Battle of Concord. www.forbes.com/sites/alison...

We are deep, deep trouble as a nation. I don't know what the answer to that trouble is. But I know it isn't continuing like this.

Man are we on a Hubris-Nemesis trajectory or what

The Donroe Document to the Monroe Doctrine, ladies and gentlemen

This is the content that keeps me coming back here

So like…now what? Is there a plan here exactly for what happens when you decapitate a government overnight? Or is this just the “Jesus take the wheel” school of military planning?

Love him or hate him he is clearly a keen student of the Third Century Crisis

I get that no one asked me, but: I don't think drone operators or missile strikes should kill men who show they want to give up, who are already badly injured and no threat, or who are shipwrecked. This isn't a 1 event issue, it's everywhere in war over the past 3-4 years.

Tonight on Ken Burns's American Revolution, Rick Atkinson is going is going to tell you: "Muskets are mostly inaccurate beyond 80 yards...so a lot of the killing is done with the bayonet... this is really eyeball to eyeball." The trouble is, this just isn't true. 🧵1/16

If you have a lazy Friday afternoon, I'll be streaming on youtube at 12:30pm EST, let me know your questions on eighteenth-century warfare. www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS31...

I'll be live here about 2pm EST, bring your questions about Frederick the Great and the Prussian Army.

Trick or Treater turnout was much lower than expected. If you have questions on eighteenth-century warfare, I'm back at it this evening. Come as you are, AMA.

If you have questions about the Seven Years War, or eighteenth-century military history generally, stop by the stream. www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjdV...

With Halloween upon us, did you know: Vampires turn 300 this year? This year, 2025, marks the 300th anniversary of vampires haunting public imagination in Europe. Read on for the origins of Orloc, Dracula, and of course, Nandor. 1/25

Master of Command releases today. You should go buy it on Steam.

Seeing your scholarship in a peer-reviewed journal: Broke Seeing your scholarship on a podcast: Woke Seeing your scholarship on a videogame loading screen: Bespoke

Sir a second Nazi Group chat has hit Politico

18th century officers when the enlisted men don't march into close range with shouldered muskets and attack with bayonets, but instead: Fire without orders at long range Take cover Run out of the line of fire

Hold up Have I heard this story before but with phrases like “ship money” and “long parliament”? Calm down it’s a joke

President Trump: "we have found the answer to autism, we won't let it happen anymore" Me, back to the wall, gripping my rifle, sitting on a throne of historical uniform books next to my pile of accurately painted historical miniature soldiers: "ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ"

My latest in War on the Rocks.

“Indeed, a spectacular and unexpected victory can build up expectations in a way that makes the usual reality of attritional warfare seem almost like a defeat.” Excellent insights from @kabinettskriege.bsky.social