New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.

Your ESSENTIAL democracy conversation is my @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke about the latest Bright Line Watch report, Threats to #democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days. newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...

New podcast on threats to democracy and academic freedom in the US with my Bright Line Watch colleagues @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke

FABULOUS conversation with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke from Bright Line Watch about the April report on American democracy. @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast coming! Meanwhile, check out the newest report and follow @brendannyhan.bsky.social brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...

New report from BrightLineWatch.org with lots on threats to academic freedom as well as updates on the state of American democracy. With @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, and Sue Stokes

Republicans who say they are more aligned with Trump than the GOP are somewhat less likely to rate democracy favorably and more likely to view strongman rule positively. In total, 55% of Trump supporters endorse a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with Congress.

Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy. After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.

Political science and misinformation experts assessed technology-related threats to democracy similarly, though misinformation experts rated Meta's loosened content moderation rules and the revoking of the Biden AI executive order as more threatening to democracy than political science experts.

Experts rate Jan. 6 pardons and firings of executive branch officials as the gravest threats to American democracy, followed closely by the roles and influence of Musk/DOGE. These actions were widely approved by Republicans.

-Expert ratings of US democracy lowest since we began tracking in 2017 -The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.

Re-upping @brendannyhan.bsky.social alert on the new Bright Line Watch report on the first month of Trump 2. New data on attitudes toward democracy, executive aggrandizement, and political violence.

Read and heed from @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social. This is the best overview I've seen, not just of the last few weeks, but of what to expect in the next few years, and how history (ours and, yes, from other countries) can instruct us - www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

📣MORE OF THIS! Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...

“The president is openly violating the law & Constitution on a daily basis”- @brendannyhan.bsky.social messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend... “We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”

Right now: Phenomenal conference on the erosion of democracy & the rule of law. Many speakers emphasizing the critical need to "make legible" what is happening in the US today--those who have the freedom to speak out must continue to do so as many are being intimidated into silence.

@brendannyhan.bsky.social and brand new survey data from Bright Line Watch featured in @nytimes.com The Morning newsletter with German Lopez. We're on new and unfamiliar terrain here.

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/u... This is government by 8 year-old boys

www.nytimes.com/interactive/... Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this

Outstanding back and forth on current threats to democracy, pessimism bias among experts, and how to correct for it - featuring @brendannyhan.bsky.social, @smotus.bsky.social, and BrightLineWatch.org data. Catch it (recommending 1.75x speed) at www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...

How concerned should we be about backsliding during the second Trump term? Have past concerns come to fruition? Bright Light Watch asked experts to assign probabilities to concrete "bad" events in several past waves and the most recent one. We collaborated on a report summarizing these predictions.

Important, but also another way in which our politics are distorted by the Trump GOP's "heads I win, tails you lose" approach.

(joint with @johncarey.bsky.social, Brian Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and amazing Dartmouth students Elizabeth Chun, Alice Cook, Leyla Jacoby, and Lilian Sweeney)

Latest from @brightlinewatch just out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social @suestokes.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin - check out the Nyhan thread or read the whole report here - brightlinewatch.org/from-convict...

My public opinion undergrads will be working through this report in a few weeks.

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... If Trump wins, experts expect him to fire Jack Smith, pardon Jan. 6 insurrectionists, suspend ongoing prosecutions, pardon himself, and open criminal investigations into opponents. Rs overwhelming approve of these actions (6/9)

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... A majority of the public believes Biden would have been prosecuted for his handling of classified documents if he’d been someone else, including 43% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans, but just one-fifth of experts agree (5/9)

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Fewer than half of Americans think the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated (Rs ~80%, Ds ~25%). Experts generally don't agree – but more (40%) think the NY hush money case is. (4/9)

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... 54% of the public trusts the Supreme Court to make impartial decisions in Trump-related cases. Confidence higher among Republicans (69%) than among Democrats (44%). (3/9)

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Democrats and Republicans are polarized over disqualification from ballot and over Trump claim to criminal immunity. Overall support for immunity is lower. Experts regard immunity as a serious threat to democracy. (2/9)

New Bright Line Watch report with @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Sue Stokes, and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin. brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Nyhan's got the key points ...

New paper with outstanding colleagues @brian_fogarty @brendannyhan.bsky.social @jasonreifler.bsky.social - Trying to correct misperceptions about election fraud, statements from credible sources and providing basic facts both work. Factual content seems to work better. Evidence from US and Brazil.

This piece from Tyler Harper. Yes.

Listen up - Great insights on the state of American democracy from my @dartmouth and @BrightLineWatch colleague, @brendannyhan.bsky.social on the@538politics podast - open.spotify.com/episode/7DKQ...

Trump: Migrants "poisoning the blood of our country" www.snopes.com/news/2023/10... Mussolini: Parliament "poisoning the blood of the nation" tinyurl.com/5n96dexn Hitler: "great cultures of the past perished only b/c the originally creative race died out from blood poisoning" tinyurl.com/bdzn7nfm

Listen up, electoral reformers - @leedrutman.bsky.social is making more important points - https://open.substack.com/pub/leedrutman/p/a-healthy-democracy-requires-healthy?r=8zfho&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

30 months ago a violent insurrection inspired by the President sought to overturn a democratic election and prevent the peaceful transfer of power. Its leader is now not only the likely nominee in 2024 but openly endangering the life of a former Democratic president. We can't become numb to this.