*** Presentation on Uncertainties in Climate Models and the Southern Ocean *** Really enjoyed presenting at the Challenger Society Ocean Modelling Special Interest Group this week. For more info see our recent preprint: essopenarchive.org/users/946271...

🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious. Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar. 📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST 🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

Great article in The Economist on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the impact of potential changes in it (a key focus of my current work). www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

It is good to see @economist.com highlighting the importance of climate tipping points, and the work being done to understand and prepare for them. It discusses the work being done by UK groups (including the @aria-research.bsky.social project which I am part of) www.economist.com/interactive/...

PhD Graduation!! Very happy to finally graduate from my PhD, focusing on Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”. I am incredibly grateful to all those who have supported me throughout, friends, family and colleagues (too many to name here,please check out my acknowledgements).

I am excited to announce our new preprint "Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections". This is the first paper on content from my PhD thesis and I am so happy that it is now submitted. essopenarchive.org/users/946271...

We're hiring! Research Officer on the RobustAssess project, funded by @aria-research.bsky.social . Join the @granthamlse.bsky.social and the London School of Economics as a Research Officer and work on climate tipping points and the future of climate model ensembles.

Fantastic work from the UK OBR and CCC, presented by Carbon Brief, showing how the estimated costs of climate change for the UK have increased from around 5% to 8% of GDP by 2070 under 3C of warming, while the cost of avoiding is much lower and has roughly halved since the last estimate!

Had some fantastic conversations following my talk on "Economic impacts of AMOC tipping and uncertainty" at the Global Tipping Points Conference at University of Exeter.

Thank you so much to @bas.ac.uk and @cambridgemba.bsky.social for inviting me to speak to their Executive MBA group about the economic impacts of climate change and the use of climate information in decision-making.

Lowest global sea ice area for the date on record 🧪

Really looking forward to presenting my work on the Economic consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7 at #EGU25, do drop by if you would like to learn more about climate model uncertainty and its relevance for economic modelling.

EGU Presentation: "Economic Consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7" I am presenting next week at #EGU25 on the economic consequences of climate and model uncertainty, do come and watch or get in touch if you are interested! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-... @egu.eu

Very happy to announce I have submitted the final printed and bound version of my PhD thesis “Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”! It is also now accessible online: www.repository.cam.ac.uk/items/f8e627.... More details in the thread:

Had a fantastic time at the TipESM and ClimTip Joint Annual Meeting in Paris. I really enjoyed the intense discussion on tipping point impacts and behaviour, as well as thought-provoking breakout groups and storyline sessions encouraging us to think outside the box and reconsider our assumptions.

Hybrid Talk, Zoom Link Available: "Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" I am very excited to be speaking at the ClimaTRACES workshop today 12:45 (Monday 10th march). Feel free to join us in person or on the zoom link available here: climatraces.org/events/works...

"A weaker current may also allow more warm water to penetrate southwards, exacerbating the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and contributing to global sea-level rise. Faster ice melting could then lead to further weakening of the current, commencing a vicious spiral of current slowdown."

🧪🌊🧵 Despite having his job at NOAA terminated @zacklabe.com has still brought his visualisations that show the alarming recent trend in Antarctic sea-ice extent up to date. zacklabe.com/antarctic-se... 1/2

If you would like to watch my talk on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" it is now available on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yvk...

Really enjoyed speaking on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" as well as some results from my recent paper on the uncertainties surrounding interacting tipping points (www.nature.com/articles/s43...). Thank you for the invite!

January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵

Latest data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social shows: January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record 🌡️ 1.75ºC above pre-industrial level 🌊 Second highest global SST, 0.19°C below January 2024  #ClimateAction 🧪⚒️🌍

I am really excited to be part of the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme @aria-research.bsky.social working with David Stainforth, the London School of Economics and @granthamlse.bsky.social.

Climate tipping points could have large consequences for human society, but we still have huge uncertainty around them. @climtip.bsky.social and I have put together a thread diving into more detail around my recent research on this uncertainty and how we should approach it:

"How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" at Evidence Week. This week David Stainforth and I are at #EvidenceWeek in Parliament with Sense about Science to present research evidence on "How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" to parliamentarians.

🆕 paper from @bas.ac.uk and PIK in @commsearth.bsky.social: "Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections" 👇

No one likes uncertainty, but we REALLY don't like it when it's about irreversible tipping points 🫣 New research by @jonathanrosser.bsky.social shows that the polar ice sheets are some of the most sensitive parts of our climate system, and most easily tipped into irreversible change. And... 🧪🧵 1/5

New Paper: Understanding polar ice sheets is critical for predicting future climate www.nature.com/articles/s43... Image Credit: Povl Abrahamsen