This week I had the honor of being invested in a new position: The Clearing Corporation Foundation Endowed Associate Professorship in Derivatives Trading at the University of Illinois. I am extremely thankful to my department and college for entrusting me with this position.

Has the grain industry stopped investing in growth? I got to talk about trends in US grain storage capacity with Chad Moyer from Rural Radio Network. There is a concerning decline in the growth of total US grain storage capacity since 2020 that so far defies a single explanation.

The NCCC-134 Conference is live in the Loop in Chicago! It's two days of compelling research presentations and meaningful knowledge exchange on agricultural commodity markets, price forecasting, and market risk management.

End of spring semester is the season for thesis defenses. We had a great one this week from my Masters student Yu-Chi Wang. Her thesis "The Effects of the Renewable Diesel Boom on the U.S. Soybean Complex: An Equilibrium Displacement Analysis."

Each semester, I bring industry experts to my ACE 427 class on Commodity Price Analysis. Last Friday, we were fortunate to hear from Brian Splitt at AgMarket.net about the practice of technical analysis and the art of making a career change.

Higher corn/soybean prices got support from data in USDA's Plantings and Stocks Reports. Scott Irwin and I broke down the numbers in a post-report webinar, incl. corn use variability, pervasive soybean oil demand effects, and why US corn yields may defy expectations: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PfF...

Scott Irwin and I will be breaking down the latest USDA forecasts for corn and soybean plantings and grain stocks. Numbers are out at 11am CT. We'll be live at 1pm. (I can't speak on an empty stomach!) Register now (for free) and join us! farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

Interested in research on commodity markets, trading, and pricing? We are less than 6 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

Interested in research on agricultural commodity markets/trading/pricing? We are just 9 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

My latest for @farmdocdaily: US grain storage capacity growth has stopped after decades of storage growth matching crop production growth. Capacity utilization is up, especially for on-farm storage, with implications for supply chains and future investments. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/02/us-g...

Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/the-...

Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/can-...

Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/vola...

Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily

Shared my (uncontroversial?) take that US farmers would not benefit from tariffs on Canadian fertilizer. I had fewer thoughts when interviewed on the recently announced ad hoc farm payments. www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-pol...

This semester, I had the pleasure of advising a student team from the Department of Ag and Consumer Economics in the CME University Trading Challenge: www.cmegroup.com/events/unive.... Yesterday, we engaged with CME staff and industry experts during the CME Group Day of Market Education in Chicago.

Very cool to see our farmdoc Daily article on farmers' use of futures markets (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/12/risk...) cited by Joe Vaclavik this morning: youtu.be/WY0B3UD9Zhk?.... Data show the majority of grain farms, even large ones, don't have a brokerage account and aren't using futures.

After a successful 2025 edition, the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis will be back in Chicago, April 20-21, 2026. I'm co-organizing. The deadline to submit presentation proposals is Nov 21: farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/subm... Submit papers now and join us in April!

The farmdoc team at University of Illinois is fortunate to have great partners like FBFM who keep our analysis grounded in real-world data on farm finances and the agricultural economy.

I had the pleasure of speaking to an extraordinary group of state and provincial legislators at the International Legislators Forum in Deadwood, SD: agree.org/2025-interna... I talked about ongoing tariff shock and impacts on agricultural commodity trade. Hard to understate how big a change this is.

My latest for Farmdoc Daily: Are there really 97.3 million corn acres in the US this year? Jason Franken and I use acreage enrolled in Farm Service Agency farm programs to say yes. If anything, the 97.3 million acre guess released last week by USDA is a conservative one.

My latest for @farmdocdaily: How big is the 2025 US corn crop? Or at least, how much of a yield increase is the market currently pricing in to new-crop futures prices? It might not be six bushels more than current USDA estimates, but it's close. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/07/the-...

I'm here to tell you it's possible to grow bananas in New England in your home. I'm also here to tell you that purely in terms of time/labor it's the dumbest thing I've ever done, and that people who think indoor farming will ever make a major contribution to the global food system are nuts.

"To give a sense of the scale of the inefficiency, analysis we did in the Biden administration gave an example of Walmart’s blockchain usage that was up to 50 million times (not a typo) less efficient, in terms of compute, than a traditional database configuration."

US Amb to Canada, last week: annexation saga is “over”—“Move on. If the Canadians want to keep talking about it—that's their business. I'm not talking about it; Donald Trump is not talking about it. We've got too much on our plate" Trump, today: “They are considering the offer!”

Doing that sports fan thing where I occasionally remember last night's Game 7 and then have to stop what I'm doing to shake my head and go "holy crap, that actually happened".

The 2025 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis (farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/attend) met this week at the Illini Center in downtown Chicago. We had 54 researchers attending and 25 presentations on new research in commodity markets.

Get ready for today's USDA WASDE report release. Read my recent article for farmdocDaily and remember that the April report tends not to move markets, and that's okay.

Last chance to register for the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis. This academic conference on agricultural commodity markets meets April 14-15 at the Illini Center in Chicago. Program, venue and hotel info, and registration here: buff.ly/3Qx6Qg3

Arise, centrist dads!

President Trump's ‘reciprocal’ tariffs make no sense. How is it in America’s national interest to let other countries decide what duties we pay? by Doug Irwin www.wsj.com/opinion/reci...

Interested in research on commodity markets/trading/pricing? We are just 8 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

Elon hired Clarence Beeks of Lyndhurst Security to deliver the crop estimates on time with no deviations.

Poem by Joseph Fasano

Peace, order, and Overtime Goals🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

Hear my latest thoughts on the grain markets. Todd Gleason and I will be live tomorrow morning with the first of our Illinois Farm Economics Summit online webinars. Register here: https://buff.ly/4aln8Sf

Every year, grad students in my ACE 527 class take their research on agricultural and resource markets and adapt it for non-academic audiences. Then we share their work with the world over the holidays on @farmdocdaily.

Every year, grad students in my ACE 527 class take their research on agricultural and resource markets and adapt it for non-academic audiences. Then we share their work with the world over the holidays on farmdocDaily.

Every year, my grad students take some part of their research on agricultural and resource markets and adapt it for non-academic audiences. We take their work and share it with the world over the holidays on @farmdocdaily.

Every year, my grad students take some part of their research and describe it for non-academic audiences. It's often the useful insight that isn't yet a full-blown research paper. I take them, edit, and share them with the world over the holidays on @farmdocdaily.

2/2 This isn't such a big deal as I don't think there are many people who follow Chinese markets who didn't already take this for granted but, as the FT notes, for someone to say this out loud is "highly unusual even for a retired senior official."

Last call for submissions! The paper proposal deadline for the 2025 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in Chicago, Illinois is this Friday, November 22. Full details on how to submit are on our website: https://buff.ly/3ARmgYo

As a current search committee chair for an agricultural economics position (which you can apply to here: illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...) I wholeheartedly endorse this.

With trade prominent in the post-election zeitgeist, my latest for farmdocDaily explores the pre-election surge in US corn exports. How much did importers front load their purchasing activity? farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/11/corn...

Many people assume that the incoming Trump admin will supercharge US oil and gas production growth by praising the industry just as the Biden admin saying occasionally critical things slammed on the brakes (it did not) Because all industries have a presidential vibes-based throttle

Doing research on commodity markets/trading/pricing? I’m organizing the next iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference. We’ve been gathering researchers to discuss all things agricultural markets and prices; we’ll do that again for the 43rd(!) time next April 14-15 in Chicago.

Saving my favorite twitter 🧵as a bluesky one (w/ added ALT)! This #ThrowbackThursday, my favorite @IowaStateU story of all times (and I have A LOT). It has it all: craven administrators, powerful lobbies, principled superstar academics & of course, ag policy impacts! #PlusçaChange #PamphletNo5 1/

Hey #econsky folks,there's the beginnings of a starter pack for Agricultural Economics from @pablohutch.bsky.social. DM him if you'd like to be added, and check out this fun group: go.bsky.app/LWvcnN8

ACE at Illinois is hiring. We want a strong researcher who can support our undergrad programs in agribusiness. This person gets to join me, @pablohutch.bsky.social, @hopecm.bsky.social, and our other awesome (but not yet on bsky!) faculty. Contact me with q's. illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...

Having finally understood what a starter pack actually is, here is the actual starter pack: go.bsky.app/LWvcnN8 DM to get added if you are in ag econ or are ag econ adjacent!