Assuming accelerating warming since 1980, the planet will cross 2.0°C sometime around 2036-2037. As for where we are right now with respect to 1.5°C, check your rear-view mirror.

In a major escalation, Yemen's Houthi Group has officially joined the war with a ballistic missle launch at Israel, just as the war hit its one-month mark. All eyes are now on the Bab al-Mandab Strait. If closed, the world loses another ~6 million barrels of daily oil supply. —The Kobeissi Letter

According to Israeli sources, Yemen’s Houthis have launched missiles toward Israel Houthis have vowed to disrupt maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which roughly 8–9% of global seaborne trade passes The wider Red Sea–Suez corridor accounts for ~10–12% of global trade Bad to worse

A plastic shortage is unfolding Asia makes ~60% of plastics & is heavily dependant on Strait of Hormuz for oil & gas supply to produce plastic Many industries will be affected including: - Agriculture - Households and textiles - Electrical and electronics - Automotive - Construction - Packaging

"California, which is an energy island — and unless things change rapidly, is gonna be facing $10 gas this summer, because they don't have incoming pipelines and a lot of their refined products come from South Korea" "⅕ of global GDP comes from countries where FF imports provide ⅔ of their energy"

Impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s largest phosphate fertilizer production site & Ust-Luga Baltic port ~2–4 million tonnes of fertiliser removed from markets Loss of ~20–40 million tonnes of cereal crops in 2026–27, enough to feed 150–300 million people at subsistence levels for a year

We've now seen 12 consecutive days setting a new record daily low for Arctic sea-ice extent. The yellow line tracks the previous record daily low.

"A global energy shock seems all but certain to come soon—the kind where even the best-case scenario is a disaster. The war could grind the AI build-out to a halt. This would be devastating for the tech firms that have issued historic amounts of debt..." (theatlantic.com) #collapse

"Russian [oil] producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out critical infrastructure this week." (oilprice.com) #collapse

Ukrainian UAVs struck the Apatit Chemical Plant in the city of Cherepovets, Vologda Oblast, in Russia The Apatit Plant is the largest producer of phosphate-based fertilisers as well as phosphoric and sulphuric acids in Europe, producing around 7.5 million tonnes of fertilisers every year.

"Tropical Cyclone Narelle has struck Western Australia, forcing the shutdown of the Gorgon, Wheatstone, and North West Shelf LNG facilities—collectively accounting for about 8.4% of global LNG trade. With Qatar's export capacity already reduced by roughly 17%"

Turkey-operated tanker carrying Russian oil struck by naval drone in Black Sea A crude oil tanker sailing from the Russian port of Novorossiysk to Istanbul was hit by a naval drone near Istanbul's Bosphorus strait Thursday morning, which had targeted the ship's engine room.

Iran threatens retaliation to US & Israel attacks on energy infrastructure by escalating “insecurity in other straits, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea." "Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a pathway for ships carrying about 10 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies."

The chief of staff of the Israeli military has warned that it will “collapse in on itself” due to growing demand and a shortfall of manpower as it fights multiple fronts. He said that it wouldn’t be long before the military was unable to perform routine missions. — Al Jazeera

The Pentagon is reportedly considering redirecting military aid planned for Ukraine to the Middle East www.euronews.com/2026/03/26/p...

"Rare 'super El Nino' could bring 'globally catastrophic' extreme weather"

Ukrainian forces strike Kirishi Petroleum Organic Synthesis (Kinef) oil refinery in the city of Kirishi, located in Russia's Leningrad Oblast — one night after a mass overnight attack on an energy terminal in the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga and a Russian military icebreaker in the port of Vyborg.

Japan to green light emergency coal-fired generation for a year to offset loss of LNG supply India burning more coal to meet higher summer demand. South Korea lifts caps on electricity from coal. Indonesia prioritizing using domestic supply. Thailand, Philippines & Vietnam boosting coal-fired power

The fuel rationing debate gathers pace in Australian politics...

"The U.S. struck a dairy farm in Ecuador after mistaking it for a drug cartel base." "Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth even released footage of the attack, presenting it as an action against "narco-terrorists," a term often used to justify military strikes abroad against drug trafficking groups."

"Amazon wildfire emissions may be up to three times higher than estimated" phys.org/news/2026-03...

"Australians are "panic buying" fuel This is a classic early-stage crisis dynamic People fear shortages → they hoard → Local outages appear → which reinforces fear THIS IS WHAT FRAGILITY LOOKS LIKE BEFORE FAILURE This will happen in your country next" — Art Berman

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns of a global recession. He says if Iran remains a threat, oil prices will trade above $100 or $150, pushing the global economy into a recession. www.reuters.com/markets/us/b...

Australia's looming fuel crisis deepens...

'West Bank Attacks Surge' Settler attacks, Israel restricts Gaza aid & land seizures marked a week that was supposed to be one of celebration for Palestinians A strike also hit a tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Deir el-Balah, with explosions & smoke rising as casualties were carried away.

The CEO of Shell just said Europe could run out of fuel next month Europe spent the last few years replacing Russian pipeline gas with LNG tankers via Hormuz www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Hezbollah claims attack on Israeli army headquarters in Tel Aviv Says it targeted the Kirya in central Tel Aviv, home to the Israeli army’s headquarters, among several other government functions Also claims to have targeted a facility belonging to Israel’s military intelligence, north of the city

The Trump administration has released oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate rising prices linked to the war with Iran. The US intends to release the second-largest amount in history after supplies through the Strait of Hormuz caused disruptions. youtu.be/xAv1ko8q59Q?...

There's about 20 LNG ships stranded in the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis slowly losing LNG due to evaporation called 'boil-off'.

Pakistan and Afghanistan: the next all-out war? While the world is distracted by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, another conflict is erupting between Iran’s neighbours. Pakistan has declared “open war” on Afghanistan after fighting intensified over recent weeks.

The 1.5C dangerous climate breakdown limit is about to be shattered, as will the 2C threshold as soon as the late 2030s or even earlier Yet idiots like this want us to increase the amount of carbon we are adding to the atmosphere Pure insanity www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Great piece by @georgemonbiot.bsky.social We do well to remember the words of early 20th century writer and journalist, Alfred Henry Lewis "Just nine meals separate humanity from anarchy" www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Yet another devastating report ignored by the Starmer government They even claim ignorance of its very existence When faced with a critical problem, instead of acting, Starmer's default mode is to shut his eyes and shout la la la very loudly www.thetimes.com/article/3812...

This is a suprise to no-one And it won't stop until our planet is a blistering wasteland www.theguardian.com/environment/...

At least 40% of Russia's oil exports halted after Ukrainian drone attacks, an attack on a major pipeline & the seizure of tankers The most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world's 2nd largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel

Russian Baltic ports have suspended oil loading operations after a significant Ukrainian drone attack. Russia’s primary export hubs, the Primorsk & Ust-Luga terminals, stopped loading crude oil and petroleum products. The strikes caused massive fires, with smoke visible as far away as Finland.

20% of traded LNG passes through Hormuz LNG is used to produce ammonia, then urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer Ammonia & its derivative, nitric acid are used to produce antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, vitamins, dyes, textiles, plastics, NOx control systems & explosives used in mining and manufacturing

50% of global seaborne trade of sulfur passes through Hormuz Sulfur is used to produce phosphate fertilizers. It's also a vital nutrient, with sulfur-enriched fertilizers providing both P&S to crops Sulfur is used to produce sulfuric acid. Sulfuric acid is used to refine copper, nickel & uranium

The contents of a secret U.K. Govt report on Britain’s ‘critical systems’ and their grave vulnerability have just now been made public by the TIMES, for the very first time. “Britain’s food security…could be “at strategic risk of catastrophic failure” by 2030”.

"Exxon expected to lose $5billion/yr based on Middle East damage so far. Shell's Pearl GTL will be shut for a year. Exxon gets 20% of its oil & gas from the MIddle East and Total gets 17%." wsj.com/business/energ…

Breaking News! Code UFB! Global sea surface temperatures continue breaking daily records, with Mar. 23 having a preliminary SST of 21.141°C, ahead of the previous daily record of 21.118°C set in 2024. This graph shows how fast SSTs are rising compared to pre-2023 temperatures.

Pentagon prepares to send another 3,000 troops to Middle East www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

1) A global food crisis is unfolding The Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf supplies 49% of the world’s exported urea & ~30% of traded ammonia. In addition, ~20% of the world's traded LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz. LNG is a feedstock for the production of ammonia and urea for nitrogen-

'Hormuz fertiliser block will upend world's food production' "the strait also carries the fertiliser components that underpin roughly half the world's food supply." This could coincide with rapid climate change, and an upcoming El Niño, 1/2

Diesel standards have been lowered in a bid to help suppliers bring more fuel into the domestic market as service stations run dry.  At least 184 service stations had run out of fuel across Australia's three most populous states by Tuesday. 51 out of about 2500 outlets in NSW were out of fuel.

I cannot imagine trying to deal with all of this, I'll tell you what.

This is horrific

The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence.

An entertaining summary of Operation Epic Failure no01.substack.com/p/march-19-2...

Australia’s fuel supplies are set to hit a cliff by the end of April when the Asian refineries that deliver 80 per cent of Australia’s supply exhaust their inventories due to the Iran war oil crisis. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...