I have a new working paper out today with Sean, David, and Abbie. It's something of an empirical user guide for people working with commonly used local labor demand shocks. A few key points... doi.org/10.26509/frb...

Ngl would be v funny if this is the thing that keeps Hassett from becoming chair

Anybody want to hang out in Philadelphia tonight?

Returned to @briefingbook.bsky.social today with @gsgoda.bsky.social to update on disability status and employment since the pandemic. Disability is still up, especially cognitive issues among young people. And, building on Gopi’s work with Evan Soltas… www.briefingbook.info/p/rising-pre...

Anybody know any econ of education journals that take short papers?

New job, new website kevinrinz.github.io

Some professional news: today is my last day with @equitablegrowth.bsky.social I’m excited to be joining @clevelandfed.bsky.social as a senior research economist on Monday. Also excited to be back in Cleveland in time to see the @cleguardians.com try to chase down the Tigers.

Anybody around DC have any use for some old econ textbooks? Or know of an institution that might?

Just sitting here listening to the Guardians game, thinking about this scene from Moneyball for no particular reason youtu.be/YwmsSAvkzGE?...

The Proliferation of Private Digital Money www.briefingbook.info/p/the-prolif...

Super interesting column @equitablegrowth.bsky.social by Alex Bell on how identification by anti-instruments reveals attribute tradeoffs, applied to job quality. Got to see him present it @upjohninstitute.bsky.social recently. New & interesting. #EconSky equitablegrowth.org/the-hidden-t...

The Heart of the Deal www.briefingbook.info/p/the-heart-...

For the next three years, an optimistic tariff-advocate scenario looks a lot like that 2001-style recession. That’s an important point: the transition advocates mostly want to gloss over may in fact be a recession, which research suggests would have long-term consequences.

I’ve been doing quarterly labor market updates at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social once all the data come in, and now is a weird time for one. Tariffs are coming and going faster than data can be collected. What we have shows a labor market that still looks solid, comparable to 2019. But…

Why do some jobs pay better than others? Think about what workers do! We tried to start doing this in an @equitablegrowth.bsky.social piece this week. We look at how skills, abilities, and work activities from O*NET relate to wages.

Why do some jobs pay better than others? Think about what workers do! We tried to start doing this in an @equitablegrowth.bsky.social piece this week. We look at how skills, abilities, and work activities from O*NET relate to wages.

Why do some jobs pay better than others? Think about what workers do! We tried to start doing this in an @equitablegrowth.bsky.social piece this week. We look at how skills, abilities, and work activities from O*NET relate to wages.

We’ve finally found Cade Smith’s kryptonite, and it’s… the Washington Nationals?

I know hitting the ball hard hasn’t worked out as well as Nolan Jones might have hoped so far this season, but I really don’t think bunting is the answer

Guys come hang out there will be lunch and Sherrod Brown and lots of other smart speakers web.cvent.com/event/a88d72...

The economic and geopolitical failings of Trump’s tariffs www.briefingbook.info/p/the-econom...

Glad never to have cared about the Browns

Cutting Medicaid is a Risky Move for Republicans www.briefingbook.info/p/cutting-me...

Asked ChatGPT to give me a bibtex citation for a NYT article at a link I provided, and instead it gave me one for a made-up @bencasselman.bsky.social article (that I would’ve been very happy to read, if it existed)

Is there a way to get the MLB app to stop serving me ads about oppo tacos between innings on radio broadcasts?

Good day to (re)read this post from @fkamal.bsky.social

Neither stable nor genius: the misguided legislative attempt to regulate stablecoins www.briefingbook.info/p/neither-st...

Days, ranked: 1. Opening 2. Election 3. Other

Okay, I like the muppet thing

Understanding job content, its link to compensation, and changes over time helps answer policymakers' questions on job quality. In this new series, @kevinrinz.bsky.social + Chiara Chanoi analyze labor market shifts, job quality, + job content using O'NET data.

Healthcare jobs have grown 2x faster than the overall labor market since 1980 Healthcare overtook retail to become largest industry by employment in 2009 New working paper w/ @gottliebecon.bsky.social, @kevinrinz.bsky.social and @victoriaudalova.bsky.social on the rise of healthcare jobs

Deliberate policy decisions have disempowered workers and increased labor market inequality www.briefingbook.info/p/deliberate...

@jasonfurman.bsky.social & @zliscow.bsky.social have responded to the piece on real infrastructure investment @ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I wrote in @briefingbook.bsky.social (links at end). We always learn a ton from J&Z, & this is no exception. They engage w/ thoughtful, data-driven pts. 1/23

Today @briefingbook.bsky.social, relating to debate b/t @jasonfurman.bsky.social & @ernietedeschi.bsky.social/@ericvannostrand.bsky.social. My best guess is highway investment didn't go up under Biden -this shows value of countercyclical infrastructure spending. www.briefingbook.info/p/has-us-inf...

Highway investment probably didn’t go up under Biden - this matters for future policy design www.briefingbook.info/p/highway-in...

@ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I are in @briefingbook.bsky.social on infrastructure. Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic. Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019. 1/11

Glad @equitablegrowth.bsky.social signed this letter on the importance of supporting our statistical system. Doing policy without good measurement is just flailing in the dark hoping something good happens. www.amstat.org/docs/default...

Today from me for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social: As the labor market stabilizes, many wage growth measures are now more than 2% above productivity growth, putting wages back in the inflation conversation at a time when progress toward the Fed’s target has stalled. equitablegrowth.org/as-the-u-s-l...

Good report. Labor market seems strong and stable. But we can only know that because we have a statistical system that is also stable, as well as transparent and expert. It would truly be a pity if something were to happen to it.

Data are also now unavailable. CPS ASEC, ACS, Pulse, SIPP, AHS public use files are all down.

What Census research is now unavailable? All CES papers are down: www.census.gov/library/work... All SEHSD, CED, ADEP, POP working papers published before 2024 appear to be down: www.census.gov/library/work... Some 2024 and 2025 papers are still up.

This specific example obviously isn’t life or death, but if you have even a limited personal interest in the ongoing operations of the federal government, this kind of thing could very much happen to you.

Robert Santos, thank you for your service

The number of pages unavailable is large, but I think doesn’t give the full context here. The full Center for Economic Studies working paper series is unavailable. That’s the work of CES staff and coauthors but also anyone working through an RDC. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/u...

No excuses for bad jobs/immigration punditry this week, courtesy of @jedkolko.bsky.social in @briefingbook.bsky.social www.briefingbook.info/p/population...

Population adjustments will cause the next jobs report to be misinterpreted and misconstrued www.briefingbook.info/p/population...

Beyond the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Why It’s Time to Rethink Business Taxation www.briefingbook.info/p/beyond-the...

Great deep dive into a previously under-covered aspect of the Federal Reserve system www.thesodafountain.xyz/p/which-fede...

Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Earnings and Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians,” by Gottlieb (@gottliebecon.bsky.social), Polyakova, Rinz (@kevinrinz.bsky.social), Shiplett, and Udalova (@victoriaudalova.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Today for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social, @ernietedeschi.bsky.social lays out the economy Trump is inheriting: where it is now and expectations for the future. Judge what happens next against what would’ve happened otherwise. equitablegrowth.org/benchmarking...