Forecasting lectures summarised in cartoons. 1. Introduction to forecasting

A non-Australian detected!

Getting tenure has its perks. For example, once tenured you get enough free time to cook your own pizza!

As the new Science paper is making waves, let me repost this working paper on the very same issue that we had made available back in January. For what it's worth, technically, *we* were the first to document the effect that USAID suspension had on conflict in Africa.

The 2025 Best Visualization Award has been awarded to Justin Hastings & @davidubilava.bsky.social (@sydney.edu.au) for their article entitled 'Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia'. Congratulations to the authors! 👏 📢 Read the full announcement: www.prio.org/journals/jpr...

The answer, to that question, is "probably no." Share of fertilizer in any food item is tiny, especially in high income countries. Farmers will bear the cost, no doubt. But much is going to depend on for how long this conflict lingers and, especially, if markets remain disrupted.

If there’s a major shock for the fertiliser we use to grow wheat, do consumers soon see rising prices of bread, flour and beer?

It's not just oil affected, it's critical commodities such as fertiliser disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Farmers are impacted, but what about the consumer at the checkout with rising prices of bread, flour & beer? 🌾 Read more from A/Prof @davidubilava.bsky.social @economicsusyd.bsky.social

We are live. A packed two-day programme, a great set of speakers, and a wide range of topics. Our 3rd #SCoPE workshop at @sydney.edu.au has a lot to look forward to. Register and stop by if you are in town. sydneyscope.org

Nice coverage--and replication--of our working paper "Aid, Interrupted" by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social in a revlcent @cgdev.org blog post. Here is the link to the current version of the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

It has been one year since the January 2025 suspension of USAID. In our new paper (with Annabelle Tan and @ashani.bsky.social), we treat this suspension as a natural experiment and examine how foreign aid withdrawal affects conflict dynamics. A thread: [1/7] papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

ICYMI #econsky #polisky

Call for papers: The Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop will be held at the University of Sydney on 31 March–1 April 2026. Please send papers (or extended abstracts) to the workshop email. Link to the call and previous programmes: sydneyscope.org

Our paper on harvest-time changes in conflict, violence, and social unrest has been assigned to a volume and issue (makes it easier to cite). It offers some valuable insights, in my opinion. Luckily, it is also open access, so feel free to check it out: doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Do commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average. This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9] davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...

Hi everyone! We're finally on bluesky! We heard this is now where all the cool people hang out, and even though we are just an economics department, we still would like to be cool.

1/ 🚀Big Update❗❗ Last year we published @NatCities, a systematic analysis of how countries are organized around multiple urban centres. That geospatial dataset is very complex. So we just launched the City-Region Explorer🔎... an easy to use platform for analysis. 🧵 #EconSky #Geography #GISChat

We have a superb lineup of 18 speakers representing 10 universities from across four countries. Really excited about this one!

Today at sydneyscope.org (organised by @davidubilava.bsky.social and @ashani.bsky.social). With @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social

Does conflict intensify during harvest in crop-producing regions?

1/ Does conflict intensify at harvest time in agricultural regions? Our new study explores this question in the context of Southeast Asia. Read the paper for the full story, or read this thread for tl;dr.

Great to see this one out in the wilderness. I will do a thread in due course. Until then, enjoy the free access to the full text. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

"Dear passengers, we apologise for a slight delay. We will soon take off, once we sort out a minor technical issue."

If you're the kind of person who waits until the last minute, the wait is over. Submit your paper or extended abstract for the 2nd SCoPE workshop to be held in Sydney on 3-4 June by the end of the day.

Don’t forget to submit your papers to the 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop at the University of Sydney School of Economics! Deadline: 31 January More info: sydneyscope.org Join our mailing list: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... @davidubilava.bsky.social

What has development economics become? Marc Bellemare presents his view in his recent blog post (one of many in 2025, by the sounds of it—in and of itself, great news for applied economists). marcfbellemare.com/wordpress/14...

Introducing my wonderful workplace where I've been for almost (gasp!) 30 years! Follow us for research on #foodpolicy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

#Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict #Klima, Ernten und Konflikte nach der Ernte

Wie El Niño Konflikte um Ernten in Afrika beeinflusst. ⬇️ #climate #conflict

Forgot to add the magic tag. Here goes: #EconSky

The climate–conflict nexus is an active area of research. I examine how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks affect political violence in Africa. Headline result: Exposure to a positive ENSO shock (an El Niño event) reduces postharvest conflict. [1/13] doi.org/10.1111/ajae...

My paper "Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict" is now forthcoming in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. A thread will follow. In the meantime, here is the link to the publication: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author...

One thing still missing on this platform is people treating it as an airline customer service portal for their complaints.

🗣️ Call for papers: 6th Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration, May 22–23 in Madrid Keynotes by the brilliant Leah Boustan & @deanyang.bsky.social Submissions due January 26th —> docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... #econconf #econsky

258/ @davidubilava.bsky.social has put together a starter pack of researchers working on the economic causes and consequences of conflict. bsky.app/profile/davi...

Created this starter pack of scholars who have worked on economic causes and consequences of conflict. The list is inevitably non-exhaustive, so please let me know if you would like to be added to it (or know of someone who should be on the list). go.bsky.app/PTSxCQf

You guys here's a starter pack of ag economists by @pablohutch.bsky.social go.bsky.app/LWvcnN8

This was mine:

A short guide on how to get follow-backs: - have a profile photo - have a proper name - have a brief description of who you are and what you do

Our SCoPE workshop series now has its own dedicated website (where you can also access the previous, 1st workshop details). If you work in the area of civil conflict and political violence, or a topic relevant to these societal issues, consider submitting your paper or abstract. sydneyscope.org

🎉 Thrilled to share our paper, "Relaxing Multiple Agricultural Constraints at Scale" with @joshdeutschmann.bsky.social, Maya Duru, and Kim Siegal, just accepted at the Journal of Development Economics 🎉 Link to paper here: https://tinyurl.com/ddst2024 Thread 👇🏼 📉📈 (1/12)

Is there a starter pack of the starter packs?

Oh, wow, didn't realize the power of being included in a starter pack in getting a visibility (i.e. follows) on this site.

pre-musk twitter was the best of twitter-like social platforms and no other platform, including this, can compare to it.

Submit your work on social conflict and political violence, their causes and consequences, to this workshop, which will feature talks from @raschky.bsky.social, @csalemi.bsky.social, Pauline Grosjean, and Ore Koren. Submission deadline 31 Jan 2025.

📢Workshop Announcement The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to [email protected] by 31 January 2025. dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...

how it started how it's going

ICYMI

My slides on academic presenting -- some advice and suggestions for what they may be worth. davidubilava.com/misc/present...