Hot off the presses, we use the Oyster Simulator to predict how the Orioles' new signings, Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso, will impact an offense looking for redemption in 2026! Spoiler: both signings fit the Orioles' righty bat need while boosting production across the board!

Susac was the lone position player selected in the MLB Rule 5 Draft, picked up by the Twins with the #4 pick. With a good glove and solid power, even for the PCL, he's a solid bench option for the Twins. High K and low BB limit upside, but he offers a stable backup C floor!

What hitter would you roll the dice on in the Rule 5 draft? We are high on Christian Cerda's power and backup C potential. Who are you high on?

An interesting Rule 5 contrast! Both are available, but Pinango has gotten far more buzz. We're higher on Jordan's contact, and, vitally, he's a year younger than Pinango. Pinango is like an Emmanuel Rodriguez lite. In '25, he swung at a low 39.2% of pitches (E-Rod at 37.7%)

Don't let the lack of plus tools scare you off; we still like Ford as a hitter!

Using our Oyster Simulator to wade into the OBP vs power discourse, we show that wRC doesn't tell the whole story when looking at lineup-wide production! Even with Riley Greene's better wRC, it's Cronenworth who adds more value to a lineup full of Big Dumpers! Read more (it's a long one!) below:

This #hottaketuesday, we beg you to buy the power of Xavier Isaac! He missed most of '25 after a "life-saving" brain operation, and he's an elite power man and walker. He showed contact progress in AA in '25, reversing backslides from '24. Still only 21, we expect big things!

Did we double-send today's piece because our title was spam-blocked? Yes. Should you read it anyway? Absolutely. In the spirit of the day after Thanksgiving (wink, wink), we look at top prospects who are underrated or underappreciated. Buy low!

Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!

Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...

Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...

Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?

Here's part two of our 2025 preseason prospect rankings audit with @downonthefarm.bsky.social, this time, ranking ourselves! Our self-audit placed us on par with other resources, but with a much higher variance in our predictions. Catch more here:

With the intro of ABS to the show, we're re-highlighting this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social; a comprehensive look at the system in AAA. From teams using too much caution, a lack of focus on high-leverage situations, and BB% != success, there are insights galore!

It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's our SUPER PROSPECT! We combined MiLB's best tooled stars to create a true can't miss prospect with power, speed, a great eye, no swing and miss, and the physique to match. Check out the piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social!

First a Breakout, Then a Star? An analysis of which Triple-A superstars conquer MLB downonthefarm.substack.com/p/first-a-br...

2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...

2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...

Today's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social researches the impact of inning length on hitting in the next half inning. We found that both short and extra-long innings affect hitters, with hitters thriving after quick innings and languishing after long ones. Read more here:

In our latest piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social we predict with perfect accuracy the 2030 NL All-Stars! Luke Adams is our under-the-radar 1B pick. Friend of the program Luis Peña makes the cut but isn't playing where you'd expect. Read on to see the whole team!

It's no shock to see tons of HS SS off the board early in today's @mlbdraft.com! These premium position players outperform their peers, and teams are wise to acquire that value. Read more about draft trends in last week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social.

Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...

Excellent read on prospect development signals. Probably things scouting people know, but nice to see it from an analytical perspective. @downonthefarm.bsky.social downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...

Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...

Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud? What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...

Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud? What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...

Goldilocks and the Nine Prospects: A Projection Comparison -- Who do we think Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline are "too hot" on, "too cold" on, and who do they get "just right?" downonthefarm.substack.com/p/goldilocks...

The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...

This is quite sobering, but I wonder if teams consider that ~5% probability of meaningful strikeout improvement to be acceptable?

The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...

Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...

Check out today's piece, an all too early reflection on some of our year's hottest takes!

Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...

Evaluating Our Pre-2025 Hot Takes at the 25% Mark: An audit of our model predictions, with some "inside baseball" on the evolution and flaws of our model 🎯 downonthefarm.substack.com/p/evaluating...

Evaluating Our Pre-2025 Hot Takes at the 25% Mark: An audit of our model predictions, with some "inside baseball" on the evolution and flaws of our model 🎯 downonthefarm.substack.com/p/evaluating...

Our recent piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social spotlights the Carolina Mudcats, who may be MiLB's most exciting team! We take you on a gameday experience with analytical evaluations and the good old' eye test. Read it here: downonthefarm.substack.com/p/take-me-ou...

MiLB Weekly Update, 4/29/25: A snapshot of performances across the minor leagues so far this season 🔽 downonthefarm.substack.com/p/milb-weekl...

MiLB Weekly Update, 4/29/25: A snapshot of performances across the minor leagues so far this season 🔽 downonthefarm.substack.com/p/milb-weekl...

2025 organizational winning percentage so far, MLB through Low-A. Thoughts?

2025 organizational winning percentage so far, MLB through Low-A. Thoughts?

Do strikeouts really increase pitch counts and shorten outings? Today, we investigate whether another conventional wisdom really holds up: Is "pitching to contact" both efficient and effective? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/do-strikeo...

Do strikeouts really increase pitch counts and shorten outings? Today, we investigate whether another conventional wisdom really holds up: Is "pitching to contact" both efficient and effective? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/do-strikeo...

MiLB Weekly Update, 4/22/25: A snapshot of performances across the minor leagues so far this season downonthefarm.substack.com/p/milb-weekl...

MiLB Weekly Update, 4/22/25: A snapshot of performances across the minor leagues so far this season downonthefarm.substack.com/p/milb-weekl...

The (Abbey) Road to the Show: Who Has the (Rubber) Soul to Be a Star, and Who Could Use Some Help! downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-abbey-...

MiLB Weekly Update: 4/15/25. A snapshot of performances across the minor leagues so far this season downonthefarm.substack.com/p/milb-weekl...

The Rankings Audit: How Good Are Mainstream Prospect Rankings Really? We look back on Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline rankings between 2017-2021 and discuss how they compare, what they do well, and what they miss downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-rankin...

The Rankings Audit: How Good Are Mainstream Prospect Rankings Really? We look back on Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline rankings between 2017-2021 and discuss how they compare, what they do well, and what they miss downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-rankin...