Our old model (with lower standards) loved the just-traded Durbin! His low-K, high XBH approach played up well in the show, and his defense at third was decent as well. A low-EV hitter, adding more walks to complement his good discipline, could help him further improve!

Blaze Alexander is a good fit for the O's! In our piece breaking down the O's post-Alonso and Ward, we still highlighted the team's relative weakness vs. lefties. Alexander is both a strong utility IF and OF, and hits lefties well, and could see PT as 2B and CF!

Next division up: the NL East! We go in-depth into some guys we'll be watching closely in 2026, including Phillies speedster Justin Crawford and Mets big bat Ryan Clifford, both of whom are Oyster favorites! They're both in our top-15, and we're eager to see if our enthusiasm is warranted!

Check out our full podcast with @tigersmlreport.bsky.social! We talk about the progress of the Tigers' big three prospects, how our model evaluates Detroit's system, and highlight some sleepers to watch!

In a system with McGonigle and Clark, don't forget about the Tigers' Briceño! The powerhouse C both improved his glove and kept up his pop as he moved into AA as a 20YO. If he can keep lifting the ball and avoiding strikeouts, he has a power ceiling amongst the elite catchers!

This hot take Tuesday, don't sleep on Nelson Rada, who we believe is a T100 prospect. Sure, the power isn't there, but for possibly the most overleveled MiLB prospect, it could develop. His solid no-chase low-whiff approach, coupled with a + CF glove, gives a high floor!

Check us out on @oriolesontheverge.bsky.social as we talk about the O's top prospects, deeper sleepers, and how our model identifies talent! Thanks to Zach, Nick, and Bob for having us on!

Thanks again to @tigersmlreport.bsky.social for having us on their pod! Malgeri is the prototypical Oyster sleeper. Totally off the radar for most, his solid hitting profile and positional upside give him an outside chance at a utility role. Watch out for his sneaky gap power!

We loved Wilson pre-2024, and with the bag secured, he's more than on his way to "star" status! Still an elite contact hitter with some power and a decent glove, he's solidified himself as a key part of the A's core!

New breakdown hot off the press! We tackle the AL West's prospects, whom we will be following closely in 2026, from contact-oriented high-floor college bats to untapped toolsy talents and AAAA superstars we believe in!

Recently traded Eduard Julien was an example of what worries the Oyster Model. Despite MiLB success, he had three yellow flags: a near 30% K% even at lower levels, a walk-centered wRC+, and a high GB%. In his solid 2023, he had a .371 BABIP, unsustainable at 50.2% GB%.

This hot take Tuesday, we declare that the Guardians have the two top breakout candidates in the AL Central! Caceres had solid contact numbers as a 17-year-old in A-Ball, and offers complete contact upside, while Castillo showed developing power and good contact at 18 in the CPX!

In Keith Law's #94 rank of Seaver King, Law cites King's big AFL campaign in his aggressive evaluation of the SS, but we are a bit wary. In our AFL piece (link in replies), we looked at regular-season strugglers who went off in the AFL and found that they had underwhelming career outcomes.

Williams, who was our Mets #2 prospect and now Milwaukee's #2 (post-trade updates coming soon!), is one of our favorite players! He's a prime example of a sneaky hitting threat: he's got XBH power in spades, great lift rates, and has great BB ability. Also + SS or CF potential!

Check out our take on Baseball America's 2026 Top-100! We highlight some of our agreements and disagreements, and go deeper into how our model evaluates players. We also answer a burning question: Why is Konnor Griffin so low in our rankings?

In the lead-up to tomorrow's article giving our takes on some of Baseball America's 2026 top 100, we wanted to showcase our prior work on the major prospect ranking outlets, what they do well, where they miss, and the strengths and weaknesses of each!

What impact will Robert Jr. have on the Mets? Despite being worse vs. RHP, Robert Jr. upgrades the lineup more vs. righties, as Tyrone Taylor has well-below avg. splits vs. RHP. Robert Jr. projects to be a below-average hitter overall, and the Mets will hope he can find his old form!

The Oyster Simulator takes on the biggest signings of this free agency period: Tucker to the Dodgers and Bichette to the Mets! While both moves make their squads better, the Tucker acquisition is especially valuable, as he both benefits and boosts the Dodgers' elite bats!

Signing the top OF projects to have a big payoff for the Dodgers, who improve against both RHP and LHP. Adding .3 runs per game (with the ideal lineup) is a massive increase, even for a team as loaded as Los Angeles!

The AL Central may be the most exciting division for prospect hounds, with top-end talent rivalling any division. In today's article, we dive into the guys who we will be eagerly following in 2026, from MLB talent to R-Ball standouts looking to make the leap!

Despite a pair of 120+ wRC+'s, we're low on both of the new Marlins. Why? Both are quite old for their levels (Jones 23 in AA, Lewis 22 in A+). The big knock on both guys is very high IFFB% (27.2% for Jones, 34.8% for Lewis). Both have potential, but must pass upper-level tests!

With the Cubs signing Alex Bregman, we ran our Oyster Sim to assess the signing. Despite the big paycheck, our simulator believes that the addition of Bregman will only marginally help the Cubs, who already possess solid RHH infield depth. Check out the full piece here:

While all big signings are exciting, big-time international FA signings are volatile to say the least. From our piece on all amateur signings, here's the top 10 by bonus received. A mixed list that shows how hard it is to ID talent at age 16!

Over the next few weeks, we'll be writing about one prospect from each team that we'll have our eyes on in '26. We started with the AL East, focusing on some of the league's big-swinging prospects (and one elite defender in Orioles orange). Check it out!

On the Cabrera deal, if we were the Marlins, we'd have our eye on the (rumoured target) Owen Caissie. Ballesteros fits poorly with MIA, as they already have a poor glove, great bat C in Agustín Ramírez, but Caissie provides a solid corner OF option.

Once upon a time, we were big fans of Noel! His plus power and acceptable K rate were great, although the close cont. & reg. ratings indicated bust risk. In MLB, his chase has been his downfall (48%!! in 2025). Less chase or improved in-zone contact is the path forward!

We're higher on Melton than most! His well-rounded play is a serious asset, and he's a rare player with + power and good contact and discipline. He also plays a decent CF and swiped 37 bags last season. He's had slow promotion performances before rebounding. MLB more of the same?

Our final piece of 2025 recaps a fun year in baseball research and prospect analysis! Highlighting the best of our 47 articles, we give you some concise takeaways to prime your 2026. Simulations, steal strategy, sticky traits, sending runners, and more!

This #hottaketuesday, stay high on Nimmala! He faded from the spotlight after a slow finish, but the underlying numbers still look good. He cut a poor ~30% K% in '24 to 21.4% in '25, and has + pop for a then 19 YO. If he can up his lift and pull in '25, look out!

We wrote about the O's new acquisitions in last week's piece, and these two prospects are the next up! We love Basallo; his AAA output is in an elite class. Our model is unkind to Bradfield Jr, as it ignores his ++ fielding upside, but as a BB-driven non-masher, MLB may be tough!

Hot off the presses, we use the Oyster Simulator to predict how the Orioles' new signings, Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso, will impact an offense looking for redemption in 2026! Spoiler: both signings fit the Orioles' righty bat need while boosting production across the board!

Susac was the lone position player selected in the MLB Rule 5 Draft, picked up by the Twins with the #4 pick. With a good glove and solid power, even for the PCL, he's a solid bench option for the Twins. High K and low BB limit upside, but he offers a stable backup C floor!

What hitter would you roll the dice on in the Rule 5 draft? We are high on Christian Cerda's power and backup C potential. Who are you high on?

An interesting Rule 5 contrast! Both are available, but Pinango has gotten far more buzz. We're higher on Jordan's contact, and, vitally, he's a year younger than Pinango. Pinango is like an Emmanuel Rodriguez lite. In '25, he swung at a low 39.2% of pitches (E-Rod at 37.7%)

Don't let the lack of plus tools scare you off; we still like Ford as a hitter!

Using our Oyster Simulator to wade into the OBP vs power discourse, we show that wRC doesn't tell the whole story when looking at lineup-wide production! Even with Riley Greene's better wRC, it's Cronenworth who adds more value to a lineup full of Big Dumpers! Read more (it's a long one!) below:

This #hottaketuesday, we beg you to buy the power of Xavier Isaac! He missed most of '25 after a "life-saving" brain operation, and he's an elite power man and walker. He showed contact progress in AA in '25, reversing backslides from '24. Still only 21, we expect big things!

Did we double-send today's piece because our title was spam-blocked? Yes. Should you read it anyway? Absolutely. In the spirit of the day after Thanksgiving (wink, wink), we look at top prospects who are underrated or underappreciated. Buy low!

Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!

Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...

Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement? downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...

Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?

Here's part two of our 2025 preseason prospect rankings audit with @downonthefarm.bsky.social, this time, ranking ourselves! Our self-audit placed us on par with other resources, but with a much higher variance in our predictions. Catch more here:

With the intro of ABS to the show, we're re-highlighting this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social; a comprehensive look at the system in AAA. From teams using too much caution, a lack of focus on high-leverage situations, and BB% != success, there are insights galore!

It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's our SUPER PROSPECT! We combined MiLB's best tooled stars to create a true can't miss prospect with power, speed, a great eye, no swing and miss, and the physique to match. Check out the piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social!

First a Breakout, Then a Star? An analysis of which Triple-A superstars conquer MLB downonthefarm.substack.com/p/first-a-br...

2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...

2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...