An interesting Rule 5 contrast! Both are available, but Pinango has gotten far more buzz. We're higher on Jordan's contact, and, vitally, he's a year younger than Pinango. Pinango is like an Emmanuel Rodriguez lite. In '25, he swung at a low 39.2% of pitches (E-Rod at 37.7%)

We rate Harry Ford more than most due to decent power and contact to supplement elite discipline and a lack of chase. He'd be deeper in our personal T100 due to the below-average C glove, but we believe in the hitting skillset more than most. Key? Lifting like his comp, Paredes.

Using our Oyster Simulator to wade into the OBP vs power discourse, we show that wRC doesn't tell the whole story when looking at lineup-wide production! Even with Riley Greene's better wRC, it's Cronenworth who adds more value to a lineup full of Big Dumpers! Read more (it's a long one!) below:

Sometimes you don't have to be a standout to be a top prospect! Hao Yu Lee doesn't have any elite, eye-catching tools, but he's around average across the board as a AAA player at age 22! Not a ton of guys have this skillset, and even with a non + glove, we like his odds!

This #hottaketuesday, we beg you to buy the power of Xavier Isaac! He missed most of '25 after a "life-saving" brain operation, and he's an elite power man and walker. He showed contact progress in AA in '25, reversing backslides from '24. Still only 21, we expect big things!

I’ve been saying

In Milwaukee's stacked system, don't overlook Luis Lara! He's a plus fielder with an exciting combo of discipline and contact; upping his LD% will be key to his success. He's quick and made strides in SB, upping his efficiency in '25. Check out more here: downonthefarm.substack.com/p/black-frid...

Brennen Davis is a possible FA pickup that our model is high on. His power is exceptional, and as a non-minus fielder and average contact/discipline guy, he's more than a AAAA-type guy! Available at a low price, with difference-making pop! From Wed. piece: downonthefarm.substack.com/p/black-frid...

This Thanksgiving, we wanted to express our gratitude for the Baseball Analytics community! Since we started this work nearly three years ago today, we've loved being a part of a group so dedicated to exploring the possibilities of baseball and open to curiosity and learning.

Did we double-send today's piece because our title was spam-blocked? Yes. Should you read it anyway? Absolutely. In the spirit of the day after Thanksgiving (wink, wink), we look at top prospects who are underrated or underappreciated. Buy low!

Genao is displaying elite contact skills in the Dominican Winter League after a decent 2025 in AA. While he didn't rise quite as some hoped heading into last season, Genao had similar struggles in his A-Ball debut, but grew his game in the following season. Expect similar in '26!

As we continue to showcase our Next Gen Oyster Model, take a look at this comparison between two toolshed prospects! We love them both, but De Vries has shown an improved ability to tap into his raw power.

What prospects stand out to you? Who do you think we're too bullish on?

To celebrate the expansion of our relationship, we wanted to share our introduction of the Next-Gen Oyster Model, keeping our readers on the cutting edge of prospecting:

Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!

Check out Jordan's updated C/R/S percentages! For our soon-to-debut improved Oyster model, we retooled our WAR thresholds, going from .25/1/2.5 to .5/1.5/3. This, with our shift to measuring peak WAR, allows for aggressive and clearer evals. An article on the new model is coming!

Teasing the new model format with an unprotected prospect in Blaze Jordan. We love him; he makes our T100 with solid contact skills that give him a good ceiling. If he can turn some GB into LD or FB, he'll further boost his contact. Solid bench bat in year one, we'd pick him up!

¡Jadher es un prospecto enorme con el techo altísimo! He's small and has a unique swing, but don't let it distract from his hype: he's got great contact skills and decent pop, and nearly never Ks. With a plus glove as well, he deserves real buzz! If the power grows more... whoa!

The DUNOSAUR roars again! 4 dingers in 2 playoff games have turned around Duno's previously lukewarm fall, showcasing his top-end raw pop. An elite walker with great power and decent contact skills, Duno is a strong C and bilingual pitcher's pal behind the dish. One of our faves!

Check out yesterday's Arizona Fall League Analysis piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social! We look at the breakout performances and cold streaks to see how much the fall season affects a prospect’s future outcomes. Check it out below:

Our improved Oyster Model is still in production, but these two players are shining through! Tony Blanco Jr. has some of the best power/age/level of any prospect we've tracked, and William Bergolla has the best contact skills. Flawed? Sure. But the model believes!

Like most outlets, Florentino rocketed up our boards in '25. Our model loves his 50%+ FB rate but below 15% infield FB rate, and his plus power and discipline. Fears about K are diminished for us with his great contact rates for his power. If it travels to A+, he's T10 for sure!

Nate George nearly cracks our T100 with his great contact skills and respectable power. Still extremely raw, George plays a good OF due to elite speed, but went an inefficient 50 for 75 in SB. He hits a ton of GB (47%), but flashed a line drive, 5 tool profile. Polarizing for sure!

The @marlins.com Starlyn Caba has lit up the AFL, hitting .327 in 67 PA, but our model is concerned with his contact. While BB are nice, they're devalued in R and A, and he's struggled to impact the game with the bat.

Anderson has been another AFL superstar in 2025, but our model holds his age against him. Despite a high power ceiling and good bat-to-ball, he put up his best work in AA as a 23YO, less than a year younger than league average. His '26 in AAA will see if the B2B can translate!

Get ready for Game 3 with last week's World Series Preview! We yet again use the Oyster Sim to project the productivity of these two big-swinging lineups and highlight the difficulties of constructing the ideal postseason lineup.

It's not hot take Tuesday, but... Valdez has been the star of the AFL, clubbing 8 dingers with flattering metrics, but the Oyster model isn't entralled by his regular season work. The power is there for sure, but most of his power was at age 21 in a hitter's park in A+.

For this #hottaketuesday, we have a mystery player! His closest comps are the solid company of Franklin Arias, Colt Emerson, and Miguel Vargas, and he's been a solid hitter at the R and A levels. Unheralded and unranked by most, we think he's got a great shot. Who is this player?

Game 7… who do we got? One admin is rooting for the M’s! A lifetime Julio fantasy owner, I’ll be cheering for the Mariners. How about you all?

One qualm we had with the Mariners' lineup was Arozarena in the leadoff spot; we like Rodriguez's added pop there a bit more, especially with their playoff performances thus far. They've made the change for game 5; will it pay off?

Farmelo is a rarity: an underappreciated power bat and good fielder with acceptable contact and discipline skills. Battling injuries, he had an above-average '25, but had his K-rate rise and avg fall. '26 will be key for Farmelo; can he raise his con% to a more sustainable level?

The Jays jiggle their lineup for game 3, moving Santander to the cleanup spot, Lukes to the 2 hole, and moving Barger down. As we mentioned below, the M's likely still hold a hitting advantage, especially against the righty Bieber. Check out our piece:

Despite favoring facing lefties this season, the Brewers were shut down by Blake Snell last night. Today, they face Yamamoto and counter with Peralta, a RHP vs RHP showdown that favors LA's bats. Read our Oyster Simulator's take on the matchup:

We've got ALCS predictions! Through our new Oyster Simulator, we compare the Mariners and the Blue Jays to see which squad has the best bats. One of these teams outperforms its wRC projections in our simulated seasons. Can you guess who?

The big swinging Mendez comps to Josh Naylor, and Mendez can learn from Naylor's success. Both guys had good contact, high EV, took BB (Mendez better), and hit too many GB (Mendez worse). Naylor has upped his game by trading GB for FB; if Mendez can do the same, bat is monstrous!

Walcott is a beast and one to watch in the AFL! He's a rare combo of well-rounded hitting and exceptional athleticism. He was an above-average hitter (111 wRC+) at AA at over 4 years younger than his competition, and had none of the flaws that plague young players (has pop+BB+low K). Future star!

This #hottaketuesday, we encourage you to remain higher than high on Franklin Arias! While his overall numbers weren't incredible, he held his own in A-AA with elite contact numbers. An 89.1% contact rate in '25 is standout, and with age comes power. Top 5 prospect potential!

ABS Challenge Thread! First off, we're pro ABS challenges. As a frequent MiLB attendee, the system may be the best in American sports (bar tennis). It's quick, visually appealing to the fans, and adds some fun drama to the game without the tedious redundancy that plagues

This week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social introduces the Oyster Simulator, an analytical tool we use to project how players' production changes in context with the rest of their team's lineup. Read why the sim would swap Cronenworth and Arraez here:

Playoff debuted DeLauter has been one of our fav prospects for a while; he was T20 for us until injuries stalled his dev in 2025. He's a rare breed of player who walks, hits HR, and has solid contact ability. With an odd but powerful swing, we're excited to see him contribute in the playoffs!

Who are your biggest prospect prediction wins and losses of the year? We loved Jacob Wilson more than most before his great '25, and had Daylen Lile as a top 60 prospect! We missed on Drake Baldwin, who we weren't sold on due to his slightly older debut age. How about y'all?

Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?

The youngest of the Salases, Andrew had a tough 2025, hitting only .186 with a poor .564 OPS. Why do we still like him? He was the youngest player in Single-A, has a respectable K-Rate, and pulls the ball well. As he adds strength, we expect him to become a well-rounded player!

With the intro of ABS to the show, we're re-highlighting this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social; a comprehensive look at the system in AAA. From teams using too much caution, a lack of focus on high-leverage situations, and BB% != success, there are insights galore!

Here's part two of our 2025 preseason prospect rankings audit with @downonthefarm.bsky.social, this time, ranking ourselves! Our self-audit placed us on par with other resources, but with a much higher variance in our predictions. Catch more here:

A teaser on tomorrow's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on Luis Peña, who is likely our best prediction from our preseason rankings. We had him at 11th overall before he cracked mainstream T100 ranks, and it was his gap power that was a big reason why!

Mainstream or lamestream? With @downonthefarm.bsky.social we analyze mainstream prospect projection outlets to assess their preseason rankings, find some interesting trends, their biggest hits, and their worst misses. Check it out here:

Our model has waffled on new call-up Bryce Eldridge, but he's settled in the back of our T50. He has immense power and good contact skills, a rarity. The model is a bit spooked by his sub 10% BB% and 30.8% K% in a high-elevation AAA league. Raw skills are there, excited to see him hit bombs!

Here's what we thought of Martinez headed into '25. The model loved his power output, but seeing a power first no walk prospect get popped for roids had us a bit concerned about his future. He's had a poor '25, struggling at a level he dominated in '24. Blame it on his juice!

Don't forget about Moisés! He's up in the bigs again after a 120 wRC+ age 21 AAA season, and his ++ contact skills are among MiLB's best. He doesn't K, and while he lacks top-end pop, his XBH skills compensate. An all-fields hitter, avoiding GB is key to his success!