Who are your biggest prospect prediction wins and losses of the year? We loved Jacob Wilson more than most before his great '25, and had Daylen Lile as a top 60 prospect! We missed on Drake Baldwin, who we weren't sold on due to his slightly older debut age. How about y'all?

Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?

The youngest of the Salases, Andrew had a tough 2025, hitting only .186 with a poor .564 OPS. Why do we still like him? He was the youngest player in Single-A, has a respectable K-Rate, and pulls the ball well. As he adds strength, we expect him to become a well-rounded player!

With the intro of ABS to the show, we're re-highlighting this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social; a comprehensive look at the system in AAA. From teams using too much caution, a lack of focus on high-leverage situations, and BB% != success, there are insights galore!

Here's part two of our 2025 preseason prospect rankings audit with @downonthefarm.bsky.social, this time, ranking ourselves! Our self-audit placed us on par with other resources, but with a much higher variance in our predictions. Catch more here:

A teaser on tomorrow's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on Luis Peña, who is likely our best prediction from our preseason rankings. We had him at 11th overall before he cracked mainstream T100 ranks, and it was his gap power that was a big reason why!

Mainstream or lamestream? With @downonthefarm.bsky.social we analyze mainstream prospect projection outlets to assess their preseason rankings, find some interesting trends, their biggest hits, and their worst misses. Check it out here:

Our model has waffled on new call-up Bryce Eldridge, but he's settled in the back of our T50. He has immense power and good contact skills, a rarity. The model is a bit spooked by his sub 10% BB% and 30.8% K% in a high-elevation AAA league. Raw skills are there, excited to see him hit bombs!

Here's what we thought of Martinez headed into '25. The model loved his power output, but seeing a power first no walk prospect get popped for roids had us a bit concerned about his future. He's had a poor '25, struggling at a level he dominated in '24. Blame it on his juice!

Don't forget about Moisés! He's up in the bigs again after a 120 wRC+ age 21 AAA season, and his ++ contact skills are among MiLB's best. He doesn't K, and while he lacks top-end pop, his XBH skills compensate. An all-fields hitter, avoiding GB is key to his success!

Lile has been raking as of late, but it's no shock to us! An incredibly well-rounded bat with fantastic XBH pop, Lile has jumped out to a 114 wRC+ in his first 300 PA in the show. His line-drive happy approach (27.9% LD in MLB) looks sustainable. BB are low, but the stick is hot!

Bergolla is a relatively unheralded prospect that our model LOVES. Why? He may be MiLB's best whiff-avoider and makes fantastic contact. While the total lack of power caps his ceiling, a strong gloved, good contact SS and league-average AA hitter at age 20 is legit!

New AA promoted Made is one of our top guys; his combo of toolsy potential and a sophisticated approach as a teenager makes him one of baseball's most exciting prospects! We anticipate him adding some power, but to be an above-average hitter with a + eye and + whiff is indeed "Correa-esque"!

Caceres has the signs of a guy on the rise: a R-ball campaign with great hit and low K's, a gap power skill that should scale up with age, and a league-average bat as a young 18YO in A-Ball. He has a decent but not fantastic glove and has shown all the signs of a future boom!

It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's our SUPER PROSPECT! We combined MiLB's best tooled stars to create a true can't miss prospect with power, speed, a great eye, no swing and miss, and the physique to match. Check out the piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social!

Rainiel Rodriguez has rocketed up our boards in 2025! He's an elite hitter with little to no early weaknesses. He BBs a lot, but also shows power and contact, key in the BB-heavy lower minors. The Moises comp is dead on, both have minus D but top bats. Add him to the @cardinals.com C army!

Bonemer is RED HOT! After dominating A-Ball, the White Sox's 2nd rounder in '24 has a 1.343 OPS in his first 5 A+ games. He loves a walk, but has the power and contact skills that should scale up well through the levels. He's still only 19 and should be rising fast in the rankings!

We're still high on newly-promoted Jimmy Crooks, even after an average 2025 AAA campaign. A league average hitter in his age 23 (now 24) season is pretty good for a glove-first C with a fantastic arm. If he can up his walks and reduce the Ks, as he did in AA, he can make a big impact!

Our first hot take Tuesday was prophetic! McGonigle is now a universal top 5 prospect and is the consensus #1 pure hitter in the minors. His "worst" stat, discipline, is still nearly 1 full standard deviation above average! Ignore his size, he RAKES like few recent prospects!

Dynasty players are gonna want to read this one! We're breaking down the traits of sleepers to give you that fantasy edge. Everybody knows about the Basallos and Mades of the world, but how about the Bergollas and the Areinamos?

New AAA callup Walker Jenkins is that man! Very few young prospects have the contact and discipline skills that he has, and we expect him to add some juice as he ages. One knock is a low flyball rate limiting HR, but if he can maintain the absurd 30% LD% that he had in AA, he'll be a 2B machine!

Flashing ++ power in the upper minors at 22YO is rare, but Clifford's doing it! Perhaps even more exceptional, his contact rates and K% are near average, allowing the pop to show through. A below-average OF with a cannon, Clifford has the tools to be a 30+ HR MLB talent!

New call-ups, new model update, new site updates! After a recent model and site update (including sharper mobile formatting), we wanted to highlight this called-up pair. Garcia has the far better bat, but Williams' discipline, pop, and glove propel him into our top 30!

Mendez may be a sleeping giant! We love Mendez's profile, and he has sky-high bat potential as he learns to elevate. '25 has been progress in that department, and with electric EV numbers, Mendez is a real sleeper to be a scary big league bat!

Two of our top guys got the AA nod this weekend! They're both relatively close agewise, both play great D, and show signs of being top-end hitting talents! Our model prefers De Vries' discipline, but make no mistake, the pair (and McGonigle) are in a class of their own!

Basallo finally gets the call! A true force, he's dominated AAA in his age 20 season (just turned 21) and does it all well! Great EV, a 10%+ BB%, under 25% K%, and hits outfield fly balls at a 35% clip, massive given the power. Excited to see him in the show; will he get C time?

This week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social dives into the "high-pressure market" theory to assess whether tradees flounder in the bright lights of NYC, Philly, and Boston. Is the media microscope too much for new acquisitions, or is the impact overblown?

Jordan Lawlar is off the IL and back in AAA Reno. We’re concerned about the injury history more than his skillset, and we hope he can have a healthy end to 2025. ‘26 will be huge for Lawlar, and with some consistency, he should make a big league splash!

Caissie gets the call and is on fire! He's had two stellar years in AAA, and in '25 he's posted a 143 wRC+, adding power without adding Ks! He does a great job of lifting and pulling the ball, and cut his IFFB% to 13.4 in '25; he's crushing often. Watch the Ks, but he's a stud!

New DBacks AAA call up Tommy Troy is off to a hot start! He had a poor ‘24 but has answered the bell in ‘25 working walks and hitting bombs. He singled to start tonight’s Reno Aces game!

We love Rada as a prospect! He has a super high floor, and his hitting has been solid given his age. The swing decisions are a key high point, and we're curious to see if he's able to generate some more pop as he grows. His solid EV numbers on fly balls give us some hope!

Two current AAA breakouts (130+ wRC+) belong to Dylan Beavers and Jonathon Long! We give both 23YO a 25% chance of being a league regular, with both bat-first prospects threatening to break through soon. Beavers should get their chance, Cubs are more crowded, but watch for this pair!

The "Dunosaur" has been impressive in his second (no healthy) A-Ball stint, walking 18.2% of the time with a sub20% K%. He's swinging less, making more contact, and has a great 40+% FB%, optimal given his size. As he muscles up with age, those XBH will be HR. One of our top guys!

Can't wait to see Peña & Made in action at the next level! We've been all in on both for a year now, but have to go with Peña as our favorite, the hit tool + EV combo is just so exciting! Check out our full rankings: t.co/9IoTw5NOfv

Of course Leo De Vries was our highest ranked prospect on the move during the deadline, but #2 and #3 might surprise all but our biggest fans! Check out our deadline summary ⬇️

2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...

We think recently debuted prospect C.J. Kayfus has a good shot to be a regular! He's a solid all-around hitter with strong contact and decent power skills, as well as a 10%+ BB%. He'll need to keep his K% down, and he's likely a below-average corner OF or 1B, which are negatives.

"The Password" is red hot! Homers have been his calling card, and he's also hitting just under .300 in AAA! His discipline metrics are less flattering, and he's riding a high .369 BABIP right now, which is likely what keeps him out of the top 50. A good OF who can drive them in!

Another Oyster stud on the move! Mendez's top-class contact is his best trait, and he's added some slugging in his jump to AA in '25. He's reduced his absurd ~60% GB% to a high but better 52.7% in '25, and if he can tap into more lift, he could be a bat-to-ball beast in the show!

In the biggest prospect trade of recent memory, De Vries goes to the A's!! He's our #1 guy for a reason, above-average stats at an extremely young 18YO are elite. He could stand for more contact, but the power, discipline, K rate, and glove are all there! A jaw-dropping Blockbuster!

We talked about Baez a few weeks ago as an underrated talent without eye-popping stats; he's our #48 overall hitter for a reason! He's a young player with power and average contact who doesn't K, a rare and sought-after combo! Here's the piece: downonthefarm.substack.com/p/five-prosp...

New Twin Eduardo Tait is one of our favored C, and our #40 in MLB hitters. He's a power and contact machine, and while he doesn't BB, he avoids Ks well. He's held his own in A and A+ despite being only 18, and he lifts the ball well to tap into his pop. A good positional C, he's one to watch!

Today's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social researches the impact of inning length on hitting in the next half inning. We found that both short and extra-long innings affect hitters, with hitters thriving after quick innings and languishing after long ones. Read more here:

Model update is out (with a snazzy baseball card format). Don't forget about Walker Jenkins! While he hasn't lit the world on fire in '25, he's been an above-average 20YO in AA, a feat in itself. He looks like a solid all-rounder, don't let the hype reduction fool you!

Just shipped off for Jansen, Jadher is our #13 prospect, a lofty rating! He does everything well: solid contact, solid pop with respectable homer power, and minimizes Ks. He's a smaller guy, but we think he has the tools to be an offensive threat and a strong middle IF. Rays got a gem!

With Jansen possibly moving, Rays AAA C Keegan has put together an excellent '25, showcasing above-average power and solid, line-drive powered contact numbers. Our model is spooked by his career-high K% (29.3%), fueled by a high 33.5% chase rate. Can he avoid the bad swings enough to be a producer?

Who's the last minor leaguer to club 4 HR in a game? None other than... Hogan Windish? In '24, he hit nearly a quarter of his 15 HR in one night in June. He's unlikely to make a big league impact, but for a middling power guy to have a big day is awesome! Scooter Gennett anyone?

We still like Rada a year and a half after posting him as an MLB lock! Few players have his bat-to-ball skills at age 19, and his BB% and K% are both exceptional for his age/lvl combo. He's hitting more XBH than before, equalling last year's total in 151 fewer PA. Glove is good, will avg. pop come?

He's back! Adamczewski has been hot in '25, but our model isn't quite sold. While he does have great contact and few flaws, he's 20 (but a young 20) in A-Ball. If the contact plays up, he's a gem, but being a 2B only in A-Ball is a big minus; he's unlikely to have glove value.

The member of the @tigers big 3 with the most industry hype, Max Clark continues his rise! He's making more contact in 2025 than ever while remaining a discipline demon. We'd personally bump him up further in our ranks with his elite CF play; he's a high ceiling, high floor dude!