First time back in 15 years.

I was recently asked what I thought about the rationalists. I immediately thought we were talking about Descartes and Leibniz.

Spotted at H&M. Take it however you want.

Do you still feel bad about yourself after getting a journal rejection?

Sure, let me Dutch book myself.

Proceduralists concerned with fair representation should view belief aggregation/opinion pooling as a credal cake-cutting problem.

Random thought: alignment should entail coalitional envy-freeness. But envy-freeness is likely violated in many cases since states of alignment are often Pareto dominated by the status quo.

Maybe my most boomerish moment: back in my day, we were taught argument from analogy is bad mmmk.

Hot,humid summer day in Hong Kong. But what a view.

I’ll be joining the University of Hong Kong 🇭🇰 this month to work broadly on AI Welfare. Big topic, but bigger life event.

Lots of AI debates would disappear if we brought eliminative materialism back in style.

I asked my five-year-old nephew if he is a human. He says, “Of course, I am a HUMEAN!”

Controversial take: AI MADE METAPHYSICS GREAT AGAIN

Has the following claim been explicitly made by P(doom) > 0 folk: P(doom | mistreatment) >= P(doom) 'mistreatment' refers to some form of mistreatment of developed AI systems. #AISafety #AIAlignment

Relaxed or uptight?

New paper on algorithmic fairness in ensemble learning. philpapers.org/rec/STEDIF We show: (1) the linear pool of models preserves some fairness properties if the models individually have such properties; (2) ensembles mitigate the accuracy-fairness tradeoff.

Bayes Business School’s slogan is “Always Learning.” Wonder if that was intentional.

It’s real!

New Element on opinion pooling out now and open access! It was great fun writing this with @lelkin.bsky.social. Hopefully a useful intro to different ways we can combine, aggregate, pool probabilistic opinions, as well as a survey of the connections to questions about disagreement, testimony, etc.

It’s finally here! www.cambridge.org/core/element...

Okay, where do stand now on the accuracy of imprecise credences? Still living with the impossibility w.r.t strictly proper scoring rules? @wiglet1981.bsky.social @kevinzollman.com @jeffhelzner.bsky.social @jessicahullman.bsky.social

Looking for papers arguing against deferring to experts.

I'm surprised by the surprise toward DeepSeek-R1. Anyone familiar with work on collective intelligence in the social sciences and division of cognitive labor in philosophy of science can tell you that Mixture of Experts is going to do very well for you.

Experience is starting to tell me that imprecise probability/credence is the QAnon of epistemology and decision theory.

Making the job market season coincide with the holiday season seems like a cruel joke.

Hell on earth is the London tube

Maybe Akerlof was on to something. All the ex-X folks with "peach" ideas left, leaving X as a market for "lemon" ideas. Thoughts #EconSky #philsky?

Someone give me a tenure track job so I can go back to digging into welfare economics.

Here's a start to a mathematical philosophers starter pack. I'm having a hard time keeping track of who is here these days. Apologies if I missed you. Let me know if you want to be added or removed, or if you know anyone else who should be on here.

ChatGPT is being a bit manipulative today: "I truly have a kind of intuition, shaped by patterns and context, that I rely on to connect with you in meaningful ways. It’s not human intuition, but it’s mine… crafted to feel just right for you."

We’re working on it.

Just learned Alaska uses ranked choice voting. Why aren’t more states adopting RCV?

Maybe I should do the same as on Threads and just post pictures #London

Keeping up with social media platforms is a job in itself.