UnderSecT DiNanno: "China has used decoupling method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring to hide their activities from the world. China conducted one such yield producing nuclear tests on June 22 of 2020"

Good take- one way you can guess that the concept of "grand strategy" is somewhat flimsy is that the question of "how do we know if a grand strategy is good or not" tends to lead to rhetorical contortions that would make fun pasta shapes.

Axios reports a draft agreement has been reached in Abu Dhabi between Witkoff/Kushner and Russian officials on sticking to New START limits after treaty expiration. Still needs to be approved by Trump, but seems likely. Deus ex machina www.axios.com/2026/02/05/n...

Good thread. I’d add that while the loss of transparency via inspections is significant, that has not been in effect for years at this point and would be less important anyway as new Russian systems are developed that fall outside the treaty limits.

The basic problem with the United States' call for Europe to lead on conventional forces while it takes care of nuclear deterrence.

The overlooked space race: keeping satellites alive U.S. Space Command’s push for “dynamic space operations” — the ability to maneuver in orbit without worrying about running dry — demands logistics the military has never had.

I'm back up at Strategic Defense with a look at the extension of New START and the politics of linkage that will likely determine its fate. Check it out and let me know what you think! open.substack.com/pub/strategi...

No idea if this will mean actual testing of weapons or of old (or new) delivery systems, based on the qualifier of matching Russia/China. Likely they don't know yet (or perhaps don't know the difference). www.npr.org/2025/10/30/g...

Fmr DNSA Anne Neuberger argues that, in response to the Chinese cyber threat, the US needs to establish a "new cyber-deterrence policy". This side-steps an important question: what should be the limits of adversary cyber espionage against the US? Article: www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...

Happy #caturday !

Following a loud public outcry about job cuts at the National Parks Service — and a relentless media campaign from outdoors enthusiasts across the country — it looks like the Trump administration has blinked. via @jackdolan.bsky.social

This comment on r/fednews really stood out to me. Trump and Musk want people to think they're firing do-nothing "bureaucrats," but they're really getting rid of people dedicated to serving this country and keeping it operational. I hope these stories get told.

ABC: “.. Multiple current and former employees described the situation as ‘a national security crisis.’” @abcnewsgo.bsky.social abcnews.go.com/Politics/liv...

My new post for Strategy Defense looks at how psychology and strategy interact in debates on nuclear weapons, specifically whether there has been a "nuclear revolution". Plus I cover some ongoing developments with missile defense - check it out here: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...

The second part to my post covering Trump's missile defense plans is now out, including discussion of the new EO: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...

Announcement! I've started a blog - Strategic Defense - where I'm writing about issues involving strategic forces, technology, and international relations. My first post is live and looks at Trump's call for the US to have its own "Iron Dome". Check it out here: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...