Interesting the role of young men on Twitter and TikTok here. Much more research required into precise pathways. Appears to be a similar group to those who are anti immigrant and believe conspiracies in previous research

Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...

Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️ #Aras25 analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-... @kevcunningham.bsky.social

Trying something open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

Connolly 55 Humphreys 35 Gavin 10 m.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race www.independent.ie/opinion/anal...

It is with profound sadness that RTÉ announces the death of radio presenter and actor Seán Rocks. Seán died last night following a brief illness at the age of 63.    Seán is survived by his beloved Catherine and sons Christian and Morgan. May he rest in peace.

Not all analysis!

New piece for @dublininquirer.com about Dublin City Council's well-regarded Neighbour Transport Scheme, that quietly went away.

Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent 'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?' Yes 55 No 37 Don't know 8

Nearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017. The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now. @news.sky.com

The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.

Yup.

What a sad sight

Turns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t.

One of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe.

always a NO to gen AI

Hi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908

My latest analysis in the Sunday Independent on where the median Irish voter stands on defence and housing issues. Covering the Triple Lock, NATO, Defence spending, Neutrality, EU Army, Log cabins & one-off-housing planning, tax cuts, derelict buildings... www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Hard to say it but, notwithstanding one's position Zelenskyy really f**ked up today and in a way in which I'm not sure we'll recover.

I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these.

Exploring the decline of immigration as an issue in Irish politics: analysis.irelandthinks.ie/drop-in-asyl...

In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️

Opining again as the gov get winner's bump. m.independent.ie/irish-news/f...

It's officially 'very cold'

Interesting job: Applications to be the next Political Editor of the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent... mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud/job/politica...

For your post-Xmas #rstats reading: idealstan now has an updated vignette showing ideal point marginal effects: a new way of understanding how covariates ➡️ latent variables with noisy indicators. + an easter egg about old vs. young Democrats in the Senate 😁 saudiwin.github.io/idealstan/vi...

Everything You Didn’t Really Want To Know, And Therefore Didn’t Really Care To Ask, About The Seanad Elections! (🧵)

In relation to turnout and polling. The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.

Fine Gaelers really feel the Paschal Donohoe push over the last few days was effective - this might back that up.

Great analysis by @kevcunningham.bsky.social I’d no realised there was also a Sindo/Ireland Thinks exit poll www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both parties

The 2024 election produced a much less proportional outcome due to the relative inefficiency of the Independent/Other vote.

Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week.

The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG. Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys. pollingindicator.com#validation

Expecting these odds for ff/fg/Independents to start moving in quite quickly? #ge24

Fitzgerald to elect Paschal Donohoe, with some transfers closing to gap. Donohoe's surplus might just about put Marie Sherlock over Gerry Hutch..?

There it is. Gannon's surplus and Fitzpatrick's elimination.

My article in @TheSundayIndo attempting an explanation of yesterday's vote together with some fresh data. m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...

RTÉ Election Marathon Fantastic teamwork with @kevcunningham.bsky.social throughout the day! 🙌 #GE24

Great work with Stefan working on our votes to seats model taking into account the individual's vote share/quota, their ranking relative to seats, number and vote share of running mates. Transfer friendliness of FF FG may change this further. We'll have to see!

@businesspost poll 27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov) Fianna Fáil 21% (=) Fine Gael 20% (-2%) Sinn Fein 20% (+2%) Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%) Soc Dems 6% (=) Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%) Green 4% (=) Labour 4% (+1%) Aontú 4% (-1%) PBP-Solidarity 2% (=) Others 1% (=) Moe +\- 3% FW 20th-26th

Our final general election Business Post/Red C poll. Fianna Fáil takes the lead as Fine Gael falls back and Sinn Féin eyes government- www.businesspost.ie/politics/red...

'I mean they've had their ups and downs, but when all is said and done they're destined to be together.'

Prime Time Debate poll conducted today... m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...

Gosh

A bit ambitious

I’ve a round up of the digital campaign for #GE24 in the Irish Times; some nuggets > FF have an attack ad on SF housing they don’t want Dubs to see > Harris uploaded 60 TikToks in 2.5 wks, plus 45 to LinkedIn, yet viral moment dominate > IFP go big on YT ads www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024...

Previously published this housing figure before looking at this breakdown. Perceptions on who best to tackle housing entirely dependent on your housing status. Owners/non-owners. "Which of the following do you think is best to tackle each of the following issues? Housing"