Just how lucky was RJ Barrett's winning basketball shot last night? If it had been just 2.1 centimeters CLOSER to the middle of the hoop, then it would have bounced out, and the Raptors would have lost. See my explanation here. probability.ca/jeff/writing...

Fun fact: This international ranking of scholars has ranked me as fifth in the world of all time in terms of "Markov chain" research citations (and 57th in "probability" overall). It's probably a pretty questionable ranking algorithm, but I will take it. scholargps.com/rankings/hig...

After last night's tough loss, my statistical model now gives the #BlueJays a 56.84% chance of prevailing in tonight's seventh game. It'll be tight. Let's go Blue Jays!

With last night's convincing win, my statistical model now gives the #BlueJays an 81.4% chance of winning the World Series. Go Jays Go! :-)

A short fun interview about Blue Jays probabilities I did for QR 770AM Calgary radio on Friday: archive.tveyes.com/18120/455385...

I'm briefly quoted here. www.ctvnews.ca/sports/artic...

My simple statistical model currently gives the Blue Jays a 52.46% chance of winning baseball's World Series this year. Go #BlueJays!

I will be performing music and voices this Sunday afternoon in this fun Sherlock Holmes spoof radio play, at the Bata Show Museum in Toronto. Free! All welcome! Come check it out! batashoemuseum.ca/event/sherlo...

I’m a statistics professor who became embroiled in the world of online chess drama theconversation.com/im-a-statist...

A #UofT News piece about my recent statistical analysis of an online chess scandal. www.artsci.utoronto.ca/news/statist...

My article about the online chess winning streak controversy is now published in the Harvard Data Science Review. hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/ex6vbavk... @rmcleodb.bsky.social

I'm in this comedy show tonight in Toronto, performing improv comedy AND musical accompaniment AND storytelling. Come check it out! comedybar.ca/shows/CincoD...

Very interesting stuff!

13/ @uoft.bsky.social statistician Jeffrey Rosenthal (@jeffski.bsky.social) has a nice collection of "piems" here: probability.ca/jeff/writing..., while Mike Keith has some amazing (& long!) ones, here: cadaeic.net/cadenza.htm #PiDay #piems

Gareth O. Roberts, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal Quantifying the Speed-Up from Non-Reversibility in MCMC Tempering Algorithms https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16506

Ayup

For Maths fans, 2025 is a square. 45² = 45 x 45 = 2025 Also, 9² x 5² = 2025 40² + 20² + 5² = 2025 My favourite? 1³+2³+3³+4³+5³+6³+7³+8³+9³ = 2025 #Mathematics #teaching #education

Happy Friday the Thirteenth! I was actually BORN on a Friday the Thirteenth. In fact, "Born on Friday the Thirteenth" was my proposed title for my book about luck, eventually called Knock On Wood. Oh, did I mention that it makes a great Christmas present? 🙂 probability.ca/kow/

Exams done. Phew!

One final exam done, one still to go (tomorrow).

NEW: Bluesky has seen massive growth in the weeks following the US election. There are 24 million users on the social media platform. With great engagement comes great responsibility, which means Bluesky CEO @jay.bsky.team has a lot to do. She sat down with WIRED to talk about it.

Deep thought of the day: If you always expect the worst, then you will never be disappointed.

CAJ Mentorship Program is the best gift you can give yourself, and it's free for CAJ members. 6-week private mentoring by, omg omg: @conniewalker.bsky.social @nickhunebrown.bsky.social @sarahcrgr.bsky.social @adrianklee.bsky.social @shireenahmed.bsky.social MOAR. Apply now: caj.ca/programs/men...

Is Bluesky the real deal or just more of the same? For the Toronto Star, a dispatch on my first two weeks hanging out in this space. www.thestar.com/news/canada/...

"My new career is going great! I'm making MILLIONS! Why, just yesterday, I took in 0.00001 million dollars!!"

I performed some music at my department's holiday party today. (With graduate students recruited as my backup singers.) More of my music at: probability.ca/jeff/music/

Just taught my last class of the semester -- phew!

Doug Ford’s absurd efforts to rip out Toronto’s bike lanes capture international attention, via the @theguardian.com: Backlash after Ontario premier threatens to tear up cycling lanes in Toronto www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n... #topoli #bikeTO

This is my first-ever Bluesky post. Hello everyone!