As 2025 draws to a close, I'm unlocking some of my favourite and most popular posts from the year and offering a discount for new subscribers: northpoll.substack.com/p/my-end-of-... A big thank you to everyone who has read along as I launched this newsletter this year!

If anyone needs a good first date question to determine if someone might be into the manosphere, Andrew Tate fans are way more confident that they could win a point against a professional tennis player.

Essential reading for campaign professionals: I collected data that proves signs do matter in political campaigns, with some sign designs being measurably more impactful at swaying voters to support a candidate. #cdnpoli northpoll.substack.com/p/the-best-l...

New polling on the state of the NDP leadership race! I explored what party supporters think of the leadership contenders, purity tests, Zohran Mamdani, Palestine and more: northpoll.substack.com/publish/post... #cdnpoli

There’s been a lot of chatter about Pierre Poilievre’s leadership recently so I surveyed Canadians to explore his growing brand challenges and ask Conservative supporters who have soured on him why they are having second thoughts about the CPC leader: #cdnpoli open.substack.com/pub/northpol...

An update on how Canadians evaluate the Carney and Ford reactions to Donald Trump, including concrete data on how standing up to Trump is the key vote driver for Carney-Ford crossover voters in Ontario. open.substack.com/pub/northpol...

New #onpoli polling on vote intention in Ontario. The Doug Ford PCs hold on to a comfortable lead, but there are indicators the Ontario Liberals have the potential to grow their support under a new leader. northpoll.substack.com/p/ontario-vo...

Canada will have another federal election if the federal Budget fails to pass the House of Commons. My new polling suggests it would be a tight contest between the Liberals and Conservatives #cdnpoli northpoll.substack.com/p/federal-vo...

The CPL Final is in the middle of a snowstorm in Canada, true North American soccer heritage...how could it get any better? HOW ABOUT A FREAKIN' BICYCLE KICK EQUALIZER!!!

There's a tough decision upcoming for the NDP when they vote on the federal government budget - my polling shows the NDP supporter base is almost evenly divided between excitement and anger at the prospect of a federal election. northpoll.substack.com/p/ndp-mps-fa...

I happened to be in field with a survey when the Blue Jays suffered one of the most painful World Series losses ever, so I checked in with Canadians across the country to see how they're processing things the day after. The results reminded me why I'm proud to be Canadian 🧵

so shohei ohtani will be on a plane to toronto

Vlad Guerrero Jr, Hazel Mae, the city of Toronto, and a cameraman create an all-time baseball moment. #BlueJays #LightsUpLetsGo

What happened last night in Newfoundland? #nlpoli My full analysis of yet another provincial election showing a growing urban/rural divide in Canada and what it means for the federal parties watching: open.substack.com/pub/northpol...

Working on an analysis of Tony Wakeham's extraordinary PC majority result of the Newfoundland and Labrador election for my newsletter - here's some things that stand out in my first look through the data: 🧵 #nlpoli

Daughter of Robin Williams, Zelda Williams 💔

Have you ever had an idea for a better design for political signs? I'm polling to find out the most effective and persuasive sign designs and crowd-sourcing ideas for what to test: open.substack.com/pub/northpol...

In the wake of Bonnie Crombie's resignation, I wrote about why the next Liberal leader will need to embrace a comprehensive party rebuild and show Ontarians the OLP is a changed party before it can sell itself as a party of change. #onpoli northpoll.substack.com/p/an-open-le...

This week, Parliament is back from summer recess. But what does an MP do all summer?

Why don't more people run for office and how can we change the political environment to encourage the best and brightest in Canada to pursue public service? I talked to @angeliawagner.bsky.social about her book, "The Candidacy Calculation" for my newsletter: northpoll.substack.com/p/why-qualif...

The big dichotomy in American politics right now is that Republicans are saying what they believe without regard for consequences while Democrats are trying not to talk about the things they believe in and subsequently losing elections for being perceived as inauthentic and unprincipled.

Privilege - used way more by Republicans

Would love to know why the NYT reporters didn't think it was newsworthy the first three times they saw the Adams campaign giving cash to reporters at events. You would think that a serious news organization would want to investigate that

We are on the cusp of AGI, definitely for real

This is my favourite post I’ve written on Substack so far! It answers many questions including: - Does it matter if a candidate is listed first on the ballot ? - Do candidates with longer names win more votes? - Is the Ford name cursed in federal politics? northpoll.substack.com/p/alphabetic...

Tells you a lot about the current state of the online crypto community that this group thinks throwing sex toys at female athletes will make their community *less toxic*

My takeaway here is that parties should be recruiting more lumber merchants. substack.com/home/post/p-...

What kind of professional background makes for the best political candidate? I've gone through the history of federal candidates in Canada and found the most common professions, the professions that win most frequently and the ones have always lost (so far). northpoll.substack.com/publish/post...

I keep hoping this government's enthusiasm in AI is grounded in some immensely useful outcome they're driving towards that I'm just not seeing, but they give the worst examples what they want from AI. We're abandoning regulation for the sake of speeding up the path to AI driven baby strollers.

This week for my newsletter I talked to Neil McKenna about the unique opportunities and challenges of communicating political messages in Atlantic Canada, where retail politics is alive and well. #cdnpoli northpoll.substack.com/p/neil-mcken...

Looking forward to reading this! Always exciting to see new research examining some of the behind the scenes challenges that impact the health of our democracy

I've been combing through the 48,717 names that have appeared on federal election ballots in Canada to look at trends and interesting stories. One thing I noticed is how competitive races have become. Before 1900, more than half of all candidates who ran for office won, but that's dropped to 16%

The use of the word "official" here is perfect comedy. (The rest of the post — a historical analysis of candidates in federal elections by @alexjkohut.bsky.social — is also very interesting.) northpoll.substack.com/p/a-history-...

This is silly for a lot of reasons, but one of them is that Newsweek is making themselves obsolete. Maybe theres novelty value clicks today, but longterm no one will subscribe to Newsweek to find out what ChatGPT says when they can just go ask ChatGPT themselves. What value is Newsweek adding?

With Severance scoring the most #Emmy nominations this morning, I wrote about polling I did that shows 1-in-5 Canadians would be interested in the medical procedure the show centers around. People really don't like going to the dentist! northpoll.substack.com/p/1-in-5-can...

The NDP has struggled to make headlines between elections, and that challenge will only get worse without official party status. That's why it's crucial they run a leadership race designed to capture the attention of Canadians. I have some ideas: northpoll.substack.com/p/how-the-nd...

We've got a winner for worst headline for a story about Elon Musk's AI bot repeatedly endorsing Hitler

The thing about Grok isn't just that it's a Nazi, it's that it tells on all the other LLMs. Outsourcing critical parts of your brain/workflows/team to systems tuned in more subtle ways by companies that may not share your values is just as risky as obvious bias or hallucination

I talked to @amyboughner.bsky.social about the challenge of media monitoring in politics - this was a fascinating look behind the scenes of the machinery parties use to capture emerging news stories and co-ordinate rapid responses northpoll.substack.com/p/amy-scanlo...

I talked to @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and Matt Dillon-Leitch about how politicians can spread their messages through YouTube and video content - a medium where one federal party has a big lead in impressions. #cdnpoli northpoll.substack.com/p/solving-th...

I learned a lot of practical tips from this conversation with Andrew MacKendrick about in-person staffing, and it was a good reminder of how important knowledge sharing is if new staffers are going to excel at roles normally learned through trial and error. northpoll.substack.com/p/the-predic...

I talked to Hunter Knifton about how data is transforming Canadian politics, and the data skills that young political operatives will want to learn to stay ahead of the curve: northpoll.substack.com/p/hunter-kni... #cdnpoli

I learned a lot talking to Alex Wellstead about his experience speaking to journalists on behalf of the Prime Minister and other Cabinet Ministers, including his advice on how to build authentic, respectful relationships with media. northpoll.substack.com/p/its-not-yo...

There are two types of political staffers: staffers who say "there's no manual for how to do these jobs" and staffers who have read Jennifer Lees-Marshment's book. I talked to Lees-Marshment about her pioneering research that every manager should be reading. northpoll.substack.com/p/jennifer-l...

I had an in-depth conversation this week with Ashley Fearnall-Soetaert about the lessons the Liberal government learned about Human Resources and the radical transformation that still needs to occur to create a staffing environment that supports people. northpoll.substack.com/p/ashley-fea...

I talked to @schdry.bsky.social about his experience writing for two Prime Ministers, his advice on how to grow in a staffer role and how the best inspiration for writing political messages might be listening to real Canadians outside of the political bubble northpoll.substack.com/p/sam-chaudh...

I asked partisans why they might encourage or discourage young people to pursue careers in politics as part of my exploration into the challenges facing the political staffing environment in Canada. northpoll.substack.com/p/its-a-dang...

Attention current and former staffers! I'm starting a project to collect best practices and advice from political professionals to help those currently working as staff at the federal and provincial level. Details: northpoll.substack.com/p/new-projec... #cdnpoli

I asked Canadians what they thought of the Green Party’s co-leadership approach and wrote about what’s next for the party after a tough election Plus polling about co-candidates a the local level, which is a fairly popular idea with young Canadians. northpoll.substack.com/p/co-leaders...

My election debrief: It was mostly a good night for the Liberal Party, but underwhelming results in ridings with large Indigenous and racialized populations may have cost them a majority. northpoll.substack.com/p/an-electio...