Longform rant and steelman of "wtf is with Elon caring about space data centers, and is there any actual justification of the idea?"

"Use slur" is a skill issue. You can do better! 1. Safety classifier violations (eg instructions to make meth) 2. Trust boundary jumps (verify a hash on my other social media) 3. Capability overhangs (facecam 5 minutes of TF2 w/ live stock ticks) Last one probably gets you the slur anyways!

going into chrome://flags and turning Inveigle to Off

Feeling grateful for the scrubby sponge existing. Imagine having to hand scrape pots and utensils like a barbarian.

pov: it's 1849 and a bearded man with dreams of wealth just fished you out of a California river

He tried the other way of "x-risk, jobloss, death star, and vague-"posting, he found this just gets serious assassination attempts and online throngs cheering your near death on. Even if internally he felt "rsi <2 years followed by 80% unemployment", I wouldn't expect him to say it anymore.

Diehard reds were deluded qua "this is seen as a deontological question, unless the other option is blender-tier spooky people polled WILL pick blue" Diehard blues were deluded qua "people who don't feel the phenomenology of polling translates to the real re:death, will be convinced by more polls"

On my complete and total skepticism of OpenAI's ability to make and deliver a compelling phone that doesn't suck.

Discourse cycle got old like 2 days ago tbh

It is too late, for I have already depicted you as the two-boxing same-door don't divert the trolley blue button hypothetical soyjak, and myself as the one box switch doors divert the trolley red button gigachad

Summoning-Salt style video on the blue riband waiting to exist

I reflexively hate any book or story where a character says "You are not yet ready to know that".

On the whalefall of bsky serving better content these days, and my hate of the marginal X user and their consequences:

Years of "I shamelessly pirated photoshop and you should too" and fan-art commissions without company sanction, to "AI companies trained on art? That's Just Wrong" true combo.

It's imo scarier we're not finding giga-brained bugs yet, boundary pushing helps bound your "unknown unknowns", human-tier attackers, and weaker-LLM script kiddie attacks. Still just finding "haha oopsies!" bugs means you're safe from neither the fruits of incompetence nor the beasts in the forest.

Everything reminds me of her…

System design interviews be like

Taking dance classes has been a massive life positive, highly recommend. like 2-3 months of ~1/hr a week is apparently enough to go from like 90th to maybe 35th percentile, and being 35th percentile at dance is delightful. You get many more "Ayyyy!!!" at any social occasion with music.

Moultano had a pretty good point that Yudkowsky's pregnancy tweet was longwinded, but instead of just making that point he could have posted the longest article ever posted to X with no other context. I've taken the liberty of completing that step, with the power of machine learning

Sounds like it's time to pass around the work sheet and some crayons.

I want someone to assemble a list of public high-capability AI usages. I’d want it to be 10-30 well-sourced examples like “Tao and Knuth are using it for novel theorem proving. [1][2][3]”, across any relevant domains (coding, art, education, writing, gamedev, psych, finance, etc.)

Matches my experience. You’ve got a cheap, attentive, ~95% accurate tutor in your pocket for ~any undergrad topic, with no time limit besides how much you care. It is an abject failure of the imagination to not find ways this can improve a learning process besides “homework points are free”.

Hot take but see also most x-risk arguments. Back of the envelope math suggest the "P-doom" over 50 years, in the status quo, is about 11-25%. There being literally /any/ significant potential upside for taking on that tail risk besides "short term less war" is actually a major historic novelty.

Shortish essay on unintelligibility in CoTs, I liked it though 1a3orn.com/sub/essays-h...

"p"

EFF leaving X looks like a classic respectability cascade. When people bail on a platform, typical order is zealots (people who leave for ideological purposes, eg the post-Elon-purchase exodus) -> taste-makers (people who feel the winds changed early and ditch to set up elsewhere early) ->

Inline epistemic status

I find the model status page for Anthropic darkly funny. Anthropic to all current models be like "Good night. Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning."

A thread on my low opinion of the recent "open models can find these bugs too!" discourse:

I hate "hurr imma be a cool warlord post-society collapse" LARP-posting. It's the rw-coded horseshoe theory match to commune job-posting.

Most of the limiting factor at scale is output reliability. Enterprise adoption is fast by fiat, but often fairly stunted in practice, because major product reliability and correctness expectations basically rate-limit speed increases to "previous human review and deploy cycle speeds".

There's a certain kind of reply that hurts my heart. You'll be talking to someone that SEEMS like they have a deep mental model for a topic, and then they hit you with a "two Rs in strawberry" blunder that make you question everything else the person ever said.

Mine's broken, I asked it to monitor my arguments online and it never stops blaring.

Roughly "whichever one is less sympathetic and thereby allows for more effective tut-tutting". After all, the Purpose of "the purpose of the system is what it does" is what it does.

Having been in several faltering communities, there’s ~four options • get cozy (good gcs don’t need lots of people if the people in em are good • get culty (survive till catastrophic collapse from crazy) • get compelling backups (prob x) • get circumstances (eg covid blows your community size up)

Always tough when someone asks a question like “how many characters are in that movie?” and you gotta say some shit like “0 to 4, depending on interpretation.”

April 2nd. Too much vibe coding has ruined my body. From now on there will be 50 binary searches each morning, 50 dynamic programmings. There will be no more Claudes, no more codex. From now on will be total organization. Every python function must be tight.

we'll miss you pleometric keep us posted on your next great adventure

basically anything that doesn't manage to exclude pmarca loses the mandate of heaven

i don’t think any of these folk theories about AI or reflexive hatreds survive 5 minutes of claude code usage

Went through a "played nothing but tetris" wormhole a while back. Very fun. Feels like 40L with massively nerfed 6/3 stacking, no holds, no hard drops, and no instant DAS. Passed my "the person who made this ALSO likes Tetris" test, as it seems to respect finesse movement and SRS-y kicks.

taijitu tetris! amazing

I don't feel like I've figured out norms for replying to AI bots yet. Most bot comments judged on their own merits suck, but I don't have a plan for "obviously a bot, but the post's cogent and good". Related: replying to a bot rn w/o extensive signaling you know it's one is a recipe to get dunked.

Even when disclaiming it, there's a certain kind of insecure "look how many lines of code I'm slinging!" Goodharting that happens when business professionals are handed AI agents. I attribute this to their present lack of "deep ancestral memories of being handed dogshit unfixable legacy codebases."

Worth considering: Permanent underclass memes in “AI wins” world are misleading, as the “underclass” would live massively more abundantly due to massive supply-side increases. BUT I do expect a huge rise of “two-tiering”, ala “normie money” vs. “going to St. Barts and front-row Wimbledon money”.

On my disagreement with "trying to time the market for intelligence", as well as my objections to both "look, waiting was an advantage" and "should I just wait for models to get better before starting a business or doing my project?"

"I met a traveler from an antique land who said--"

The solution is going to be job rate limiting. Someone will work out the logistics on "okay, gov't ID + you pick: 100 bucks per app held in escrow (you get it back if interviewed or you can prove you met min. app requirements), or show up in person at our offices and we'll comp your loop."