Just shipped Voronoi geometry + real urban/rural settlement networks to MemeLabV3 Ebola modeling Same parameters. Same everything. At Day 100: • Low vs High Urbanization 984-1,642 deaths The high-urbanization run burns hotter and faster (ends Day 149). thememeticist.github.io/MemeLabV3/

Ebola virus forecast:

"Independent modeling confirms it: A May 2026 medRxiv preprint that specifically modeled the MV Hondius outbreak (using early case data, ship layout/contact patterns, and serial interval from the Epuyén outbreak) estimated R₀ = 2.76" @thememeticist.bsky.social www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...

For those who want a quick recap on #epidemiology: It was plumbing that ended the cholera epidemic, not drinking sewage to strengthen everyone's immune system. Thanks for coming to my #tedtalk.

here's the dramatic difference between CA and mean-field simulation, same assumptions: Assuming today is day 60 of the outbreak (fitted to current observed deaths), projecting 6 weeks ahead of today: • lattice: 970 🪦 • Mean-Field: 33,665 🪦 A massive 34× difference between the models!

@thememeticist.bsky.social is right! I've never seen flu doing this.

I can't believe I'll be exposed to hoards of coughing maskless people today.

@thememeticist.bsky.social and @radcentrism.bsky.social are spreading kale fear over at the other side. But I stood firm

Volunteer at the #Arizona Zoo is concerned they've been exposed to #H5N1 www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_Avian...

Introducing the Airwareness Support App a free, browser-based tool that simulates indoor air quality scenarios. Customize room size, ventilation, occupancy, & pathogens. Visualize airborne infection risks and make smarter decisions for healthier indoor spaces. airsupportproject.com/app/

Another mystery case of #h5N1 in #california.

Its now nighttime in the Congo. Still no confirmation on what the disease is.

Mystery illness in #Congo will be confirmed in about 48hrs. Currently the CFR is around 38%. #h5N1 can't be ruled out.

Wondering if StatCan will give an updated report this year! Let’s review the numbers they gave last year … (Data pertaining up to June 2023) 1 in 9 🇨🇦 have LC representing 3.5 Million people (excluding minors, those in the territories. Armed Forces etc) www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-00...

It’s pretty wack that The Billionaires are simultaneously demanding that women produce more babies while agitating to increase the infant mortality rate by reducing access to vaccines.

B.C. teen stable, but still in very sick with bird flu in critical care. #H5N1

Maybe this is where people are getting it. I can't believe raw milk is even legal in the U.S>

If a human-to-human transmissible #H5N1 variant with an R0=2 emerged today, starting from patient zero, it would take approximately 4 months for the entire U.S. population to be infected, assuming no interventions.

According to all the armchair evolutionary biologists, viruses always evolve to become mild; otherwise, they would run out of hosts. So this shouldn't be possible. www.unmc.edu/healthsecuri...

Excessive virulence can limit a virus's spread by incapacitating or killing hosts too quickly. However, in well-connected networks with large host populations, the evolutionary pressure to reduce virulence may be weak.

Immunologist updates their risk assessment of h2h #H5N1 from 2-3 years, to this flu season or next! www.instagram.com/reel/DCpatsw...

This is the largest increase on record.

440 N95s. Hand sanitizer. Lysol wipes. 2 weeks of food. If #H5N1 becomes a pandemic this winter, we'll be ready to help our neighbors.

18%+ increase this week in #California cows testing positive for #H5N1. It's certainly an epidemic among U.S. cattle.

South African scientists, who first discovered Omicron & publicised it—at considerable risk—describe how the US's failed attempt at controlling H5N1 now encompasses info suppression about ongoing viral adaptations. "The World Is Watching the US Deal With Bird Flu, and It’s Scary: archive.ph/N9WLx

#Philipines sets up #H5N1 checkpoints abs-cbn.com/business/202...

Has a new pandemic started? If these are human cases I would expect to see massive hospitalizations in the next 3 weeks.

Has a new pandemic started? If these are human cases I would expect to see massive hospitalizations in the next 3 weeks.

I don’t know, but the case of the infected teenager with #H5N1 in Canada, now a child in California, both without a known infection source is giving me bad „maybe we missed something“ vibes. I hope it is just coincidence but I am also a bit afraid something is just taking off.

Looking at the average CFR reported by each country for #H5N1, the mean sits at ~40%, with a 95% confidence interval of 25-55%. @who.int calculate the total CFR to be 49%. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_m...

I am one of 100s of scientists in the the World that is Watching the U.S. Deal With Bird Flu, and It’s Scary! Today, my opinion piece on the NY Times. Let's hope we take more serious epidemics and pandemics and deal with them before they emerge. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...

I mask everywhere. Teaching. Going to the theatre. Museums. Even haunted attractions and theme park rides. COVID shattered my life and my health. And I'm still doing better than many. I won't abandon myself or others to this virus by unmasking - no matter bans, social pressure, ridicule.

Can anyone steer me to a starter pack that addresses COVID/H5N1? I am hovering over at the dark place so I can stay hooked in

Just days after #Canada reported its first #H5N1 case, the #UnitedStates reports #BirdFlu in the first child. No known links to sick animals and not in an agricultural area either. This is on the heels of massive spikes in wastewater detections across #California.

The Cornish countryside has seen a recent outbreak of the avian influenza virus H5N1, also known as bird flu. This highly contagious strain has been found in several poultry farms in the area. insightfullnk.online/bird-flu-h5n...

More cases could show up any minute.

H5N1 hits Quebec flock It’s coming east 😱

In recent weeks, there have been reports of increasing bird flu hospitalizations, new mpox strains, deadly foodborne bacterial outbreaks, measles cases up 20%, and Long COVID prevalence may be much higher. And yet the US plans to appoint an anti-vaxxer as its top health official.

more rumors that a dog may have spread #H5N1 to a human

anti-jabies would rather have every cell stabbed with ten zillion spike proteins that turn them into little spike factories inside their body, than be poked with a lil needle containing a comparatively homeopathic amount of non-replicating spike bunch of illiterate crybabies

In humans, the recent U.S. cases the use of antiviral treatments has significantly reduced mortality in many cases. However, the potential for the virus to develop resistance to these meds poses a serious risk, not a sustainable long-term solution.

We are in so much trouble!

This indicates that the changes found at residues 226 and 228 in the HA of the avian viruses that has transmitted to a human (BC teen) MAY have acquired the ability to recognize receptors in human trachea, which would enable human to human transmission.

Reminding you that there is no mRNA vaccine available yet for #H5N1. The H5N1 vaccine uses an inactivated platform, still being developed in eggs. What that means? For the U.S. alone, it will take hens laying 900,000 eggs every single day for nine months. That's if the hens don't get...bird flu.

COVID minimizers (the majority of ppl) will be in disbelief there is another pandemic already because they don't believe repeatedly catching COVID damages the immune system making them and the entire planet more vulnerable to future pandemics.

Now that I've had #COVID 15 times my immunity is fully trained and ready for a bird flu pandemic! It's the Navy Seals of immune systems!💪

#H5N1 mutations in the sequence from the teen are hugely consequential. It looks like we are in a new pandemic, but if you are reading this you have an opportunity to be an early mover and prep

The BC case is genetically close to #H5N1 strains found in wild birds in #Canada and human cases in Washington from poultry exposure. This suggests a common origin or shared transmission pathway within the region.

Who made this? Ahahaha