🚨🚨 NEW ECONOMICS JOURNAL 🚨🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of The Review of Economic Studies: Insights, a new open-access journal in the REStud family. Mission: publish concise, high-quality research on important questions across economics and economic policy.🧵1/13

Preregister your Diff in Diffs! Watch out for those Ashenfelter dips!

RIP Mark Rothko. You would have loved how the hydrogen peroxide bleach is only turning the Reflecting Pool blue around the perimeter

Is it inside trading if I buy low and sell high 15 times in a row?

Negroni revision 2 parts gin 1 part Aperol 1/2 part sweet vermouth 1/2 part St Germain 1 splash fernet branca menta

I know it's a bit tedious, but I do want news orgs to distinguish from data and conclusions drawn from data, even when obvious. Legality/causation/etc are conclusions, in some cases obvious ones, drawn from facts, not facts themselves. But they need to be consistent (not just shield Republicans).

I asked Claude how expensive of a house I could afford in Indiana vs Illinois, and it flipped the signs on the property taxes. B+ undergrad on fixing poverty, at best. For now?

I do work with AI. But sometimes it says stuff that makes you feel a bit like "wait, are you high right now? Because we are doing brain surgery." Claude told me not to worry about a regression error being correlated treatment, the estimated value would be uncorrelated by construction.

They should do one of these for when Benedict Cumberbatch looks at you from across a Kroger.

Obviously they should do a college admission RD to estimate the effects of attending each college on heaven admission. But I guess if the sermon on the mount can be believed, admission to heaven is based on all potential outcomes, so the LATE would be zero.

Somewhat long post on the roleplaying element of 40k. I think the extent to which one is playing this to... like... pretend to be someone is interesting, cos nothing compels that mechanically yet it is clearly a huge part of why many enjoy the tabletop game sherdenpact.neocities.org/4thWall#role...

Externality biased technological change explains consumer sentiment and aggregate macro indicators, send tweet.

I remember this from the time a good student accidentally got a question about elasticities wrong in Econ 101. You have to double check your answers for "looks like nonsense", was the lesson.

I’m sorry but this is an absolutely insane conclusion for the authors to draw given what they actually did

This is very compelling! Pete Buttigieg just gets it. The sheer humanity in this clip is why I like this man so much, everyone should watch it!!

NEW: We highlight 3 changes in measurement of religious “nones” & call for organizations that make these changes to study their effects. From Matthew Conrad & me. www.surveypractice.org/article/1595...

Pride (independence) And Prejudice (exclusion). The world is on fire, but I digress.

25th amendment. Impeachment. I will support any avenue to remove Donald Trump from office. We cannot leave this man in charge of America’s nuclear weapons as he threatens to end an entire civilization. And Congress must not fund this reckless administration.

The world is on fire, it's Saturday, and we are still waiting for Taylor Swift's cover of "They'll Need a Crane".

A summary of what @loismiller.bsky.social, @camilantmorales.bsky.social, @juliaturner.bsky.social, Kalena Cortes, and I are learning about community college bachelor’s degrees so far 👇

Live footage of the inside of your local data center, apparently.

🚨New working paper alert! 🚨 The US spends huge $ on special education services for students with disabilities. Is that spending effective? Today we released a working paper suggesting it is. "Special Education Substantially Improves Learning: Evidence from Three States" Let me explain...

An underrated benefit of using AI for writing papers is that you can ask it to write a section, then you can read it and activate your "someone is wrong on the internet" disgust instinct, which will motivate you to rewrite the section much more thoroughly and clearly.

Did you know that Arnold Ventures has a standing RFP for causal research proposals related to crime and the criminal justice system? Send us your ideas! We aim to get you an answer fast (within 3 months).

I want the next Dem administration to Sherman's March everyone remotely involved with ICE/DHS/etc.

setting a big box on fire labeled LOAD BEARING TAIWAN INVASION DETERRENCE and staring back at CCP like a contestant on the price is right

Being an annoying economist means reading this and saying, "Obviously you predict crews get x>>>1 times higher wages because of the possibility of being blown up, and surely that is being priced in." (Apparently not?) Insurance isn't impossible. It's unfathomably expensive.

@andreamatranga.bsky.social Did soothsayers ever pre-register their advice to rulers to avoid being executed? Is this the mechanism whereby scientific research obtained a shred of credibility? I'm wondering how incentives ever arose for real research to be done, with so many for p-hacking/etc.

Who could possibly be better suited for ensuring the safety of athletes at the world cup than the inaugural recipient of the FIFA Peace Prize. If only he were here!

Lay-review of research grants for normative alignment is appropriate in a Democracy, but not like this. E.g. a non-expert Rejecting all research that asks "Does X predict Y?" And Approving all research that asks "Does X cause Y?" Is ok *if such standards are formally codified via legislation*.

WBAL in Baltimore helping viewers understand the difference between watches and warnings

I am begging this administration to hire a single 13 year old who has played and won a game of Sid Meier's Civilization (on any difficulty!) to help them with their foreign policy.

Something a little underdiscussed about including AI in your workflow is that it's kinda fun. YMMV. I feel like Luke Skywalker asking R2 to put in the coordinates to some distant star system, then it says "beep beep!" and I say "No, come on, what do you mean it isn't in your coordinate map!?"

I wonder if Tylenol would survive such a review. "Number of people suffering from sinus headaches not reported so population is not in scope." Green Eggs and Ham is a great book but maybe questionable as a survey methodology text.

I agree that this is...not good. Curious even.

I keep seeing it so I'm just going to say that it is controversial to say that Data centers / AI are propping up "the economy". If these things have social costs that exceed their benefits, they are propping up measurement error. Not clear to me this is the case, but it's a mainstream concern.

A very small annoyance on top of a mountain of atrocities with the recent political climate is that I feel weird making casual or even work-related observations on here because I feel like I should be "solving" some urgent violent idiocy that I have no expertise in other than common sense/decency.

DC folks actually sort of need to demand that heads roll over this. It’s a real problem if law enforcement in the capital is so pathetic, weak, and supine that their instinct is to act as stormtroopers for illicit federal power grabs.

Turns out lawlessness is not a winning strategy. See you at Nuremberg 2.0

I am so tired of hearing about Trump goons getting called into Congress to get scolded by Democrats. I want to hear about bills (killed by Reps is fine for now) that would charge every employee of ICE/DHS/etc with 75,000 counts of aiding and abetting kidnapping, etc. abcnews.com/Politics/noe...

I remember this one from Sunday school. God is trinary.

Eisenhower

Would anybody like to read one of my long threads about a 2.5bn year old rock, bacteria that could produce oxygen but not consume it, and tank production in wwii

Bi-B in the error term wrecking everything it must be Tuesday.

My preferred legal strategy for after the next election is: 1. Trump can't legally be President (14th Amendment) 2. Whoever the rules say *is* president (e.g. most EC votes of the people qualified?) 3. Only actions from that person are lawful. 4. => corruption/etc cases against everyone complicit.

A stopped clock is right twice a day. And a Neocon clock is right when it is midnight.

I haven't encountered this too much (that I can tell!) but it's also more than zero, and I have a similar reaction to Rose here. As she says... it's just very bizarre to do a philosophy degree if you don't actually want to think and work through ideas. What... what are you doing here?

Overleaf just suggested to me that "exogeneity" should be corrected to "endogeneity". Probably pretty good advice for most cases!