1/7 Yesterday I presented new research on what I'm calling the "demographic fingerprints" of armed conflict — and what they reveal about Gaza. Here is a recording of the presentation: vimeo.com/1175493576?s...

everycasualty.org/webinar-08ap... @everycasualty.bsky.social @leloveluck.bsky.social

This is a very cool article/🧵 that outlines the argument and evidence in my book, Divided Armies, about why prejudice and discrimination is bad for military effectiveness

1. IDF defenders claim Gaza's male-to-female ratio (~3.2:1 in ages 15-39) shows exceptional care in protecting civilians. I analyzed this ratio across 21 cases. The data shows the opposite: Gaza's pattern is consistent with indiscriminate killing, not precision targeting. 🧵

The think tankers/analysts/ “journalists” who spent years debunking Gaza death count should be feeling a bit shook right now, maybe a little hung out to dry, possibly taking a good long look in the mirror and hating what they see, potentially seeking new career. In reality, likely no consequences.

1. New analysis by @karlfrost.bsky.social shows Israel's civilian-to-combatant ratio in Gaza is far worse than Netanyahu claims. He told the Economist it's 1.5:1. The data says otherwise—likely 5:1 to 8:1 depending on scope. @aoav.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2026/why-isr...

Essential reading from Rachel Taylor, out Executive Director at @everycasualty.bsky.social everycasualty.org/holocaust-me...

The black box of combat deaths: why Israel must release its Gaza casualty data Excellent analysis for @aoav.bsky.social by @michael-spagat.bsky.social, as ever. aoav.org.uk/2025/the-bla...

Technical debates over famine definitions miss the point while children in Gaza starve Powerful op-ed piece by @michael-spagat.bsky.social here for @aoav.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2025/technic...

#Gaza #Genocide #Germancomplicity apnews.com/photo-essay/...

New paper estimates 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza from Oct 7, 2023 to Jan 5, 2025. Note potential sources of "downward bias." Estimate of nonviolent deaths is much lower than others. If correct, an amazing testament to Gaza's health workers and family support.

1. New Paper "Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls in the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence" by me, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir

read this please www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/o...

A great article about what must have been a great event on casualty recording. @everycasualty.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2025/casualt...

This is a really good article: slate.com/news-and-pol...

The Naval Academy reviewed the slides of a speaker that it had hosted without controversy in the recent past. They asked him to change his speech to not include mention of their purge of their library. He declined, and his talks were cancelled.

‘Like the other 11 children, Abdo starved to death in the weeks after President Trump froze all U.S. foreign assistance, said local aid workers and a doctor’. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/19/w...

The beauty of this is that with the tariff increase on China there will be even more American jobs servicing robots that insert little screws in iphones.

Can we just agree that the tariffs were a massive success and move on, that is after we get the full benefits of the China tariffs so those can also be suspended, hopefully permanently?

1. A sergeant in the armoured corps said that in 2024 he was given “shoot to kill” orders for any male adult who entered the perimeter. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

Maybe his plan is to make it seem like eggs are getting cheaper by making everything else even more expensive than eggs.

"Colonel Shoshani said earlier in the week that nine of those killed were Palestinian militants." We have to call into question all claims by the IDF, not verified by other sources, that people they have killed are militants. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/w...

1/ NEW: You read about the leaked Signal group between top U.S. national security leaders, but what happened in the strikes they authorised? And what does this say about the new administration’s approach to warfare? trump-yemen.airwars.org

My hometown paper ☕️💅🏽

My kid has a bleeding disorder and we just received an email from the National Bleeding Disorders Foundation that yesterday "nearly all staff within the CDC’s Division of Blood Disorders and Public Health Genomics" will be fired, so fuck you, RFK Jr, and all the senators who approved his nomination.

The question of if a country could fuck itself harder than the UK did with Brexit has today been answered.

Please consider donating money to support casualty recording in Ukraine after you know who pulled the plug money committed for this purpose. gofund.me/4d761f42 @everycasualty.bsky.social

1. “We’re digging them out in their uniforms, with their gloves on. They were here to save lives. Instead, they ended up in a mass grave,” Whittall said. “These ambulances have been buried in the sand. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...

Teen Warned Not To Accept Group Chat Invites From National Security Advisors She Doesn’t Know

my god

So DOGE destroyed some of my work. The USIP Truth Commission Digital Collection - a key website in the field of #transitionaljustice - is no longer. I am gravely concerned for USIP staff and the general public who no longer benefits from insights and competence of the Institute.