Latest @EquisResearch memo on the state of play with Latino voters after the ‘25 elections, a level-set after the NJ/VA/CA swings, featuring new polling www.weareequis.us/research/lat...

On what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio.bsky.social: www.vox.com/politics/467...

In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.

Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.

Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.

NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers? Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.

New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026. Memo & toplines here: www.weareequis.us/research/202...

Full memo and toplines here: www.weareequis.us/research/may...

New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.

Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024

Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly. Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.

Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.

The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig). Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.

Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps: Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things. No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally

@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...

This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.

“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises Great @propublica.org piece t.co/0ic8u6oGNm

Update: cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV) allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot. Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped. (And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)

Nice analysis here of the Latino vote in 2024 from @carlosodio.bsky.social www.weareequis.us/research/pre...

Who wants some precinct charts? Here's a partial roundup of precinct-level analysis by the brilliant Equis duo of @juan-machado.bsky.social & Javier Rodriguez.

“You’re going to have to do both.”

Early look at cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV), which allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot: overall, 6% of Trump voters went for Rosen, to 4% who skipped the race. The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.

Clark County, NV...at long last Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row. Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.

We really need to be studying the Dem & Tory outings in parallel.

Would include this interview with Ruben Gallego in a starter kit for any discussion of the path forward. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Careful in drawing statewide conclusions from our precinct analysis. For starters, Latinos don't all live in densely Hispanic areas. Only 22% of Latino voters in Maricopa live in majority-Hispanic precincts. In Lehigh (PA), it's 33%. They tell a story, but it's only ever part of the story.

All politics is identity politics. Some just do it better than others. For those interested, this is some of our actual advice on identity appeals.

Polls told us to expect vote-switching among Latinos. And indeed it seems key. But some of the persuasion effect comes out in turnout too. In most places, the drop in Dem votes was larger than the Trump hike, signs of both crossover & demoralized Ds. Voter files will help here.

if i've learned one thing from doing union stuff while also doing other forms of organizing, it's that you're better off with people you disagree with who are nevertheless trying to do the same thing as you than with people you agree with who aren't trying to do anything

First analysis of actual turnout, from GA, by Emory’s Bernard Fraga (who is not here yet) “As a share of the citizen voting-age population, turnout rates went up for all groups compared to 2020 except Black Georgians”

To an ongoing curiosity about this election: how much was about gender vs. age?

Working through a framework on what I share here vs. other platforms. The reporters are still elsewhere, so need to do narrative shaping there. Would love to have methodological or weedy/complex convos here. Curious how others think about it.

To be clear, @carlosodio.bsky.social is not endorsing the position below but, rather, offering insight into how various COVID policies continue to shape current attitudes about voting on the “economy.” Interview is thoughtful throughout. Highly recommend.

(Posted elsewhere by catharinegrace.bsky.social)

Interview with the ever-thoughtful @yamilrvelez.bsky.social on ideological sorting

Just returned here for the first time in a while and so far nobody has wished me deported or thrown in a camp, so we are off to a good start.

Enjoyed this conversation, and the eurocentric perspective, as a way to better contextualize electoral volatility in the US. (Yes, Virginia, there are still vote-switchers.)

Catalist has joined the chat #aapor #polisky

Another big release this week: Catalist’s 2022 “What Happened” reports by constituency (Black, Latino, AAPI, Youth, Women) catalist.us/whathappened...

Huge new resource for anyone who ever needs to pull Latino census estimates (there are filters for eligible & reg voters) latinodatahub.org