New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...

📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers

trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days cc @heatmap.news heatmap.news/sparks/renew...

Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.

Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...

Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports -RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels) -weekly LNG imports slightly increased -LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88% -EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15% www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...

ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...

Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...

How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...

Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive). www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...

Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...

No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2

🔴New Paper! Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study! We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months! This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌 #EnergySky

Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...

US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.

Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation www.ft.com/content/50ec...

New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...

Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.

This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!

The DOE US #LNG study could be out very soon. Here's what I'll be watching. 1. The conclusions on domestic gas prices. How much could a sharp increase in LNG exports drive up domestic gas prices? And how will domestic prices be linked to international gas market conditions? (Continued)

OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. They are likely to (for a third time) delay their plans to bring barrels back online, after years of deep production cuts. The focus is on compliance, since Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are producing above target. The US shale boom is still hard to handle for OPEC+.

A visit from Saudi and Russian leaders ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. Sure looks like they're not happy with Iraq's compliance. More than 300 mb/d over quota for October, according to the IEA. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Is Trump serious about 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, or is this an opening salvo to get a "deal"? Either way it's a terrible idea. The U.S. imported 3.89 million barrels per day of Canadian crude last year. (More than 10x U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia, btw).

Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would 🚢 Approve new LNG export plants 🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land 🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV ⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards www.reuters.com/business/ene...

"Drill, baby, drill" is at odds with current industry realities: capital discipline, the price environment, and the depletion of sweet spots outside the Permian Basin. That slogan is really shorthand for: deregulate and build more O&G infrastructure. Which is not as catchy!

Quoted in this Washington Post story. Data centers, AI, and manufacturing mean significant load growth. Gas demand scenarios are changing. That makes it all the more important to cut emissions from U.S. gas production. It's a bad idea to roll back methane regulations! wapo.st/3CHeQHR

Yes. I'm an oil and gas analyst with a strong interest in climate policy. I try to engage with oil & gas X and climate X. The algorithms really messed with visibility and engagement. But at least in my X feed, there is more diversity of views and even (sometimes!) dialogue.

Important read on priorities for the incoming Senate EPW chair. Covers permitting reform, support for nuclear, IRA methane fee and MERP funding, and more. Looks like a big reconciliation bill is on the horizon. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024...

Brilliant article on illicit Iranian oil trade to China via ship-to-ship transfers offshore Malaysia. Cool visuals and lots of good details on this regulatory no man's land. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

David Victor: "Trump’s election also necessitates thinking about ways of international cooperation that emphasize actors beyond the federal government, in states and the private sector, that can take outsized roles when Washington turns away from global agendas.." www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Have heard a lot about supporting local infrastructure projects, but we are finding no relationship between voting shifts to Trump and spending per capita on projects from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS and Science Act, or Inflation Reduction Act agglomerations.substack.com/p/the-econom...

Lots to play for.

With all the focus on the DOE energy secretary nominee, a reminder that (in budgetary terms) the department mostly does nuclear safety and R&D including the national labs. HT to @liamdenning.bsky.social. ttps://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/doe-fy-2025-budget-in-brief-v2.pdf.

For my new followers, a treat: Private equity infrastructure fundraising 'roaring back' to power datacenters www.spglobal.com/marketintell... 🔌💡

Not an especially promising sign for crude. Term structure (prompt futures spreads charted) continues to steadily erode over the past few months and WTI now drifting dangerously close to contango.

New commentary from me in Barron's: Trump's Win is (Mostly) Good News for the Oil Industry. Companies will welcome the "energy dominance” agenda. But on tariffs, the IRA, and even regulations, there will be some friction, especially with the majors. www.barrons.com/articles/tru...

Well worth a read. Structural slowdown in China due to EV adoption, high-speed rail, and property sector challenges that hit diesel demand. China has been the engine of oil demand growth for 20 years. Very hard to replace it from India, SE Asia, et al. www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowi...

First impression: Bluesky is very U.S.-centric. I hope that changes over time. The other site has many flaws but the voices/scope are much more global.

A reminder that most U.S. crude oil is produced on private land (74% last year, by my reckoning), with regulation partly in the hands of states. Of course, federal regs have a long reach, and approvals for pipelines and export facilities matter to all.

Ironically, this article appears on the very day that I'm having rooftop solar installed! "How to save money with the Inflation Reduction Act before Trump is in charge." wapo.st/4foeBQf

BlueSky already has a vibrant energy poster ecosystem but commodities—the raw materials on which these energy systems depend—are comparatively underrepresented. Below is a Commodity Analysts Starter Pack that highlights some great people in this space—give them all a follow! go.bsky.app/8wXWNer

No surprise that the US has started this process. But ask yourself how the EU will respond given Trump’s plans. Gutting the EPA OOOO b/c rules (upstream and midstream sector) would not align with the long term interests of US LNG exporters. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

I'm privileged to work at UT Austin & EEMDL with leading experts on oil and gas GHG emissions. Here's a new white paper summarizing our recent Energy Emissions Modeling and Data Lab event. Lots of insights here on methane science, policy, & LNG market impacts. static1.squarespace.com/static/62e95...

Warning signs. XOM rightly argues that pulling out of the Paris accord again is at odds with big corporate commitments and only sows confusion. On climate issues (and IRA benefits?) Trump world is keyed into views of smaller independents, not the majors. www.wsj.com/business/ene...

Federal oil and gas methane rules are vulnerable after Trump's election. The IRA "methane fee" could potentially be removed w/legislative changes to Sec. 60113. EPA rules (OOOO b/c) could be altered too. The latter would mean serious backtracking on CH4. 🧵 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I assume if Trump ratchets up oil sanctions enforcement on Iran, it could take 1 million b/d + off the market in 2025. (On Russia & Venezuela sanctions, could be a wash). But, some (probably misguided) optimism in Iran that Trump may want a "Nixon to China" moment. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/w...

DOE plans to publish the LNG export "pause" study soon. Goal is to address concerns about climate, environmental justice, and price/domestic market impacts of LNG exports, & reassess export authorization process. Post-election timing is no surprise. Impact?... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...