I think I’ll be using more Claude Sonnet 4.6 until Anthropic works out the kinks with Opus 4.7

It's extremely disappointing to see this from someone capable of much better thinking.

If we support a standard or vague agenda to slow or shape automation then most people will end up worse off than if we did nothing. At least half the Acemoglu ideas seem bad to me. However, it will become politically untenable to “do nothing” and we need a positive agenda.

Very cool competition that the Financial Times held in 1914 to forecast the border changes in WWI. ‘Precisely seven years after the competition closed to entries, the FT announced: “No map sent in is even approximately accurate as compared with the final lines.”’ www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

There's a periodic poll of academic economists run by UChicago, and it recently asked them about AI and economic growth. Lots of uncertainty, but this result is slightly more bullish than I would have expected. kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/ai-a...

Much respect to those who make predictions and publicly score them. 🫡

Individual AI benchmarks saturate too quickly to give us a long-run trend of AI progress. We can solve this by "stitching" them together. This lets us forecast AI capabilities, quantify algorithmic improvements, and detect accelerations in AI progress. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwiD...

Ending the kidney shortage is a no-brainer. I just contacted my elected officials, Click here to take @action and do the same. actionbutton.nationbuilder.com/share/SPK-QE...

The ideal that all parents, but especially mothers, spend max time with their kids leads to a stigma against au pairs. More people should consider it. www.alexnowrasteh.com/p/we-let-an-...

I watched @kjhealy.co's keynote yesterday. It is well worth your time if you often wonder about what a good visualisation should do, and if you are curious about how they fit or don't in a truth-challenged environment. It is funny too. I also like the 3 words slides! #rstats youtu.be/ZamPCbvBAgE?...

People often say that being good at poker requires reading tells and psychological insight, but this is mostly false. Poker AIs destroy humans despite not seeing physical tells, and with a very limited model of individual players. @clearerthinking.bsky.social @spencrgreenberg.bsky.social

I think this is kind of neat and I don't think anyone else has noticed it (I've looked and I can't find anyone who has) osf.io/preprints/so... Maybe I should back off "justification" language, but it's at least a remarkable coincidence. I still think someone else *must* have noticed it...

Making normies care about something is a great skill/vocation. Sadly this isn’t the skill/vocation that gets politicians elected, nor does it lead to writing popular op-eds.

Why no polls in BlueSky?

Wondering if anyone on this site wants to comment on this from @ctulocal1.bsky.social

The pretty draft is now online. Link to paper (free): www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.... Our replication package starts from the raw data and we put real work into making it readable & setting it up so people could poke at it, so please do explore it: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Suggestion for authors: go back to forecasters now and ask them if they’d like to update their 2030 forecasts.

Charts comparing BlueSky to X would be appreciated. Almost all comparisons are of interest to me including the obvious big two categories: - user demographics - post topics

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements This is a big deal

❓Why do the Nordics & Dutch speak English so much better than the Germans, Italians & French? ➡️ New Working Paper: Out-of-School Learning: Subtitling vs. Dubbing and the Acquisition of Foreign-Language Skills w/ F. Baumeister & E. Hanushek www.nber.org/papers/w33984 A 🧵 1/12

NYC experimented with new window heat pump models in some public housing units. in winter, "The window unit-heated apartments used a whopping 87% less energy than the rest of the building’s steam-heated apartments did, cutting energy costs per household in half." heatmap.news/sustainabili...

Happy Fête de la Fédération to those who celebrate! @franceculture.fr

Most social scientists have never reflected on the epistemic virtues of forecasting.

Better late than never!

My chart on the history of three infectious diseases — smallpox, polio, and measles — before and after a vaccine was available.

NYC mayor race needs conditional prediction markets: If [Mamdani / Cuomo] wins, what results in 2026-2027? - new housing starts - population growth - high net worth population change - rent change - student test scores - crime - police budget @manifoldmarkets.bsky.social @metaculus.bsky.social

Great New Yorker story on the development of a new non-opioid painkiller www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...

Should we deport people who have lived here for many years without committing any crimes? 61% no, 24% yes. Should we should deport people as quickly as possible even if it means more mistakes, or do our best to make no mistakes even if it takes longer? Quickly: 19% Minimize mistakes: 74%

Learn about Canada’s movement to delay kids’ smartphone adoption #UnpluggedCanada @alexmunter.bsky.social www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

BREAKING: Overwhelming support for letting doctors and nurses move freely around the country to care for Canadians: angusreid.org/interprovinc... #CDNpoli #CDNhealth

I agree with @kateadamala.bsky.social Don’t make mirror life. Great conversation with @nathanlabenz.bsky.social pca.st/episode/46dea5…

Very smart, high ROI initiative from the Spencer Foundation. Providing bridge funding for canceled NSF grants: 1) directs funds to projects already screened by a top-noch review process. 2) avoids imposing proposal prep costs on researchers. 3) ameliorates the disruption from GOP sabotage.

Recent research shows that AI can durably reduce belief in conspiracies. But does this work b/c the AI is good at producing evidence, or b/c ppl really trust AI? In a new working paper, we show that the effect persists even if the person thinks they're talking to a human: osf.io/preprints/ps... 🧵

"On the right end, they don’t want renters in the neighborhood. On the left, they don’t want landlords in the neighborhood. They agree that we shouldn’t approve rental housing." @kevinerdmann.bsky.social

For those new to Superforecasting, looking for a good podcast introduction, you can find it here: @TomChivers @StuartJRitchie

Deeply important research: The two-stair rule for mid-sized apartments once made sense, but today it blocks housing with no clear benefit. 🧵 x.com/Sustainable...

Trump's actions pushing up recession risk dramatically in futures markets kalshi.com/markets/kxre... polymarket.com/event/us-rec...

worth seeing

Canadian provinces must: • recognize regulations in other provinces as valid substitutes for their own. • improve labour mobility by recognizing the job certifications of other provinces. Important report by @trevortombe.bsky.social macdonaldlaurier.ca/breaking-bar...

Bonus update! Choropleths are still visually distorted and overrepresent land, so we can instead use points that are sized by population. I added an example at the end to show one way to do this with {sf}'s magical st_centroid() #rstats www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...

Dancing also underrated with the family, or by yourself!

Bryan Caplan asks how much more money would Bill Gates have donated if Microsoft hadn't been prosecuted on antitrust grounds. This is a partial equilibrium question, which is fine for a post, but I hope he addresses antitrust in general equilibrium. www.betonit.ai/p/antitrust_...

I made an #EffectiveAltruism list bsky.app/profile/did:...

Who knows housing data? I'm looking for housing construction, prices, and population in major cities.

I am not "anti-tech" but I see great potential value in the "Wait Until 8th" pledge (delaying kids' smartphones). Kids and parents feel pressure not to be "the only one" without a smartphone. Publicly discussing this decision makes it easier for other families. Thoughts?

Also, what's the most comprehensive current measure of news outlet or domain slant?

What is the environmental cost of owning a car, as compared with driving it?

*When expert predictions fail* - a new article in *Trends in Cognitive Sciences* with Michael Varnum Cendri Hutcherson & David Mandel - a challenging and likely provocative argument. Happy to discuss osf.io/preprints/ps...

Mostly not here for politics. But, at the science/politics intersection: @elife.bsky.social Editor-in-Chief Michael Eisen is apparently being ousted for tweet-referencing a satire conveying the tragedy of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Concerned about this form of censure? Sign this open letter.