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The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data - Marginal REVOLUTION We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports […] https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/12/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-tariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-macroeconomic-effects-of-tariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data