Bergedorfer ’94: German minister blunt on NATO, Swiss expert warned on Ukraine, Polish envoy exposed Russia’s lack of goals. Putin & Kokoshin hinted post-91 borders were “unsatisfactory.” No one spoke of a NATO “promise.” I unpack the story on my Substack: bartekgajos.substack.com/p/putin-at-b...

In March 1994, a group of politicians and experts gathered in St. Petersburg for a little-known event: the 101st Bergedorfer Gesprächskreis - a closed-door roundtable. The topic? Russia’s internal situation and relations with NATO.🧵 LINK: bartekgajos.substack.com/p/st-petersb...

Folks, I’m cooking something for you on my Substack - dropping tomorrow. In 1994, Putin, Sobchak, Ruhe, Meyer-Landrut, and others discussed the future of Russia and its relations with the West. The protocol from Bergedorfer adds a lot to our understanding of Putin and the Russian elite.

What came first: Russian imperialism or NATO enlargement? This isn’t your mem historian’s take that traces every war back to the Neolithic. We’re talking about formative political debates - those that shaped Putin’s worldview in the 1990s. My📜 in Nationalities Papers.🧵

This from Navalnaya is troubling. “Crimea belongs to Ukraine, but de facto it’s in Russian hands. It becomes a complicated issue, millions of people have Russian passports… even Ukrainian authorities admit it’s complicated,”. Normalization of occupation without openly endorsing?

A much-needed panel on Russian opposition and society at RUTA. Key takeaway: when Russian opposition leaders adapt to society as it is - imperial and apathetic in its majority - they risk replicating the regime. @ervitz.bsky.social, Franziska Davies, V. Pekar.

@bartekgajos.bsky.social Historien 🇵🇱 de l’ #URSS : « Victory » Reoladed. Pourquoi les élites de #putinTheButcher combattent l’ #Ukraine 🇺🇦 avec le langage de la Seconde Guerre mondiale ? Ce n’est pas tous les jours qu’une élite 🇷🇺 (80 pers) publie un volume 📌🧵 bartekgajos.substack.com/p/victory-re...

We have a new poll from the Levada on whom Russians consider the most outstanding figures of all time. Stalin remains at the top. Imagine if German officials or public praised Hitler’s strategic brilliance in 1938. Let me explain🧵

The 3rd edition of the Mieroszewski Roundtable has concluded. We hosted three brilliant authors whose books contribute to the debate on Russia, China, Germany and global economy: Michał Lubina, Katja Hoyer, Maximilian Hess. My key takeaways:🧵

We’ve just kicked off the Mieroszewski Roundtable. @ervitz.bsky.social is pressing Max Hess with tough questions on economic warfare and sanctions. His key point: if we want to stop Russia, we need to start having a serious conversation about oil and gas.

I was just sent this incredibly interesting article by @bartekgajos.bsky.social on SubStack.... He writes about the new book published in Russia about the "80th anniversary of the great victory"..... #History #WW2 open.substack.com/pub/bartekga...

The 3rd edition of the Mieroszewski Roundtable is coming up. Each year, we invite three top-notch authors whose books are relevant to today’s political landscape. This year, we’re tackling: China–Russia relations, Germany’s Ostpolitik, economic consequences of the war. More soon.

What does a historian do on a Saturday evening? He searches for Stalin in a book allegedly written by members of the Russian Security Council. A new blog post will be available soon. If you haven't read the last one, check it out: bartekgajos.substack.com/p/victory-re...

This book isn’t about history - it’s about what Putin’s elites are doing, and plan to keep doing, in Ukraine. I used data science to analyze a WWII-themed publication by Russia’s Security Council. The results are revealing - and chilling. Let’s dive in🧵

Bardzo polecam podcast Centrum Mieroszewskiego, w którym @ervitz.bsky.social i @bartekgajos.bsky.social opowiadają o usunięciu przez władze Rosji symboli z cmentarza katyńskiego w Miednoje. Na końcu świetny dokument @mieroszewskipl.bsky.social o Zbrodni Katyńskiej. m.youtube.com/watch?v=CqTD...

A piece worth your time by Sergey Lebedev. In the future, if we want to assess Russia’s political trajectory - both at the state level and within society - one of the key indicators should be its attitude toward the past. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Born in Ukraine, Medinsky chose to pledge allegiance to the Empire in Moscow. As a result, he has become a leading figure in anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. He headed the Russian "negotiating" team in Belarus, which was tasked with demanding Ukraine’s capitulation. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/14/p...

Given the communications ahead of the meeting, I'm rather sceptical that it will be serious, i.e. that we'll learn anything new beyond where the parties disagree. But it will be serious if the US realises that Russia is negotiating in bad faith.

On Russia's side, sending Dmitriev or Ushakov would be a failed feint, because, from a protocol standpoint, neither Zelensky nor Trump would agree to such a meeting. Putin has tangled himself up with the ceasefire around Victory Day and now finds himself in a weak position in terms of PR.

🧵Why is Russian propaganda recently talking more and more about sanctions? Because they prepare for what’s coming – and it’s going to hurt. A new EU energy plan. A bipartisan US sanctions bill. And a coordinated push to hurt Russia’s war economy. Here’s what you need to know👇

Will Putin meet Zelensky in Istanbul? I don't think so. He’ll claim he slipped on a judo mat again and strained his spine. But beneath the absurdity lies a very real diplomatic chess match. Let's unpack the weekend’s maneuvers.🧵

I came across this quote and thought it was worth sharing: “God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America.” – attributed to Otto von Bismarck.

Cover of the Polish weekly "Wprost".

1/ Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire if Russia complies. Meanwhile, the US resumed intelligence sharing & military support for Ukraine. This shifts the dynamics - what will Moscow do next? Let’s analyze.🧵

Poland's deputy defence minister has announced that arms shipments from the US to Ukraine have resumed at the Polish port of Rzeszów. Good news.

The Americans suspended military aid to Ukraine to meet the Russians’ precondition for talks. Now, with aid resuming, Witkoff is heading to Moscow with a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. The ball is in the Kremlin’s court.

BREAKING! United States will immediately LIFT the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine, joint U.S-Ukraine statement says

On the eve of the US-Ukrainian meeting in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine is demonstrating to both the Americans and the Russians that it has its own means of escalation, including strikes on Moscow. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Trump doesn't care about Ukraine’s war victims. He doesn’t care about 20,000 kidnapped children, 13,000 murdered civilians, or 400,000 military casualties. Nor does he care about America’s credibility, built since 1945. Let’s talk about the new reset with Russia.🧵 1/x

This week, I wrote to an American friend of mine - a diplomat -telling her that she might be witnessing history: the rise of anti-American sentiment in Poland, a country where it has always been a fringe issue.

Is it official US policy to seek regime change in Ukraine? That would be my question to the administration if I were a journalist. www.politico.eu/article/dona...

I'm more certain than ever that in 10-15 years we will be discussing this as one of the greatest failures of US foreign policy. It is no longer only about Ukraine, it is about the whole system of US allies around the world.

Trump's speech was very good in terms of both rhetoric and social engineering. And the conciliatory tone towards Ukraine. Let's get used to these sharp 180-degree turns, because there will be many more to come. DISCLAIMER: I'm not commenting on facts in Trump's speech. Look at technique.

Two weeks ago, I said in an interview that Trump being at the Kremlin on May 9 was fiction. Today, I find it easier to imagine the U.S. President in Moscow on May 9 than at the NATO Summit in Hague in June.

Part of MAGA's assault on the deep state is also a total and revolutionary rejection of knowledge. Witkoff talking about NATO enlargement as a provocation against Russia, JD Vance knowing what’s happening in Ukraine because he watched videos, Trump about 60 million Russian casualties in WWII. 1/2

That Zelensky didn't snap earlier when Trump was making jokes like, "Zelensky and Putin don't quite get along. It's not a love match." 20,000 kidnapped children, 13,000 civilian casualties, 400,000 military losses, destruction, mass migration - and Trump joking about "love match." Disrespectful.

I don't think we're going to solve this problem intellectually. I mean, we could show step by step why what Witkoff is saying is wrong, but they won't listen. Because the US is in "revolt mode" and they don't want to feel like "somebody's pawns", as Charlie Kirk put it. Bad times ahead.

Polish Minister of Digital Affairs just posted: Poland purchased Starlinks and transferred them to Ukraine. We are paying and will continue to pay the subscription. I cannot imagine that anyone could decide to terminate a business contract for a commercial service in which Poland is a party.

The Polish Press Agency gives some details about the upcoming meeting between Duda and Trump. Trump will be accompanied by Susie Wiles, Vince Haley and Mike Waltz.

Everyone is drawing their own conclusions, both in Europe and in Asia.

Today, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski is meeting Marco Rubio. Tomorrow, President Andrzej Duda will meet President Trump.

The number of tweets on X spreading false claims about the causes of Russia’s aggression, Ukraine itself, and Zelensky appearing on my feed has skyrocketed. I don’t even follow these accounts. Musk, new global Minister of Free Speech Regulation, is clearly on the case.

The Kremlin's conspiracy-theory-driven approach to reality means they won’t believe what Trump/Musk are doing. It’s just too good to be true, and they’ll assume there’s some kind of trickery involved.

Folks, @politico.com has a piece worth your time on Polish-Ukrainian relations, featuring some of my thoughts. Polish support for Ukraine and its EU/NATO path remains stable, but pragmatism is growing. Honoring the victims of the Volhynian massacre is crucial. www.politico.eu/article/angr...

1/ Trump in Moscow on May 9? Alright, clickbait. It’s highly unlikely, but Russia is preparing a major historical offensive for the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. What is the Kremlin planning, and what can or should we do?

1/ Georgia’s democratic future hangs by a thread. Its progress was derailed by a 'foreign agent law' in 2024. The government has suspended EU accession until 2028—a direct violation of Georgia's constitution—and is using force to crush pro-EU protests. 🧵

Breaking: EU ambassadors provisionally agree 15th package of sanctions on Russia, including sanctions for the first time on Chinese entities for providing military support to Russia

The Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reports on Macron's upcoming visit to Poland this Thursday. The visit will focus on discussions about a potential military peace mission to Ukraine, which, according to IFRI expert E. Tenenbaum, could involve as many as 40,000 troops. www.rp.pl/polityka/art...

Sometimes you have to trust your gut, or as Gandalf used to say, "When in doubt, follow your nose". I'm talking about Poland.

1/ Do you know why politicians really need public opinion polls? Not to find out “what” people think, but to figure out “how to do sth". That’s why Putin signed a law: by signing a military contract, you can have up to 10 million rubles (~$100k) of debt canceled. 🧵