More detail / nuance in my full writeup about this article on @medscape if you want to dive deeper: www.medscape.com/viewarticle/... /🧵

The facts everyone agrees on: Early-onset cancer rates (before age 50) ARE rising. Some cancers like thyroid, kidney, endometrial, and colorectal are up >1% per year since 1992. The debate? Whether these new cases actually matter. 2/

Comet 2025 R2 Swan from New Zealand soon after sunset. #stunday #astronomy #NZ

Greeted the sun from Christchurch, New Zealand this morning. #NZ #eclipse #stunday #astronomy

Just saying #StatsSky #rstats #Statistics

Because it's been a while - for those working in Emergency Medicine there is a feed for you with all your fav tags: bsky.app/profile/kiwi... #ED #ER #EMSky

To improve equity "opportunity" risk stratification for cardiovascular outcomes with a mammogram is intriguing. Whilst not convincingly better than the #NZ PREDICT score, this looks good work & certainly worth more investigation. Calibration is impressive (hidden in supplement :( ) #CardioSky

Took #rstats #ggplot 4.0.0 for a spin with @universityofotago.bsky.social colours to test my latest effort to fake biomarker data Thanks @thomasp85.com - brilliant. See www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/09...

I'd thought - good journal - interesting cohort - this maybe a good #machinelearning paper Sadly - trained with ~50 features yet only 23 events! Validated with only 16 events! No calibration! Please don't do this #cardiosky #statsky #ACS www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/...

Trying to fix this ... or maybe just sowing more confusion. #statistics #regression

I just read this nice pre-print on interpretation of complex prediction models using the #rstats and #python marginaleffects package by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci & @vincentab.bsky.social . Very accessible & intuitive. osf.io/preprints/ps... #statistics

“Nowhere to hide” - brilliant title for fascinating #NZ research flip.it/mRBJE1 #Volcano #geology

15 years ago this morning I was woken by what was to be the first of a series of devastating #earthquake s. They took 185 lives, and ultimately resulted in the destruction of many thousands of buildings and homes. We still get occasional reminders with a jolt from below. #Christchurch #NZ Kia kaha

Yeah - some good news. These, though, are deaths only. Attempts down too which is good because paraquat poisoning also destroys kidneys dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.to... #AKI #Nephrology #SriLanka

"Escalation in the war against academic spam" Early today, Prof Pickering pulled the trigger & added all domains ending ".info" to his auto-delete list. "This will severely dent spammers' attempts to get me to prostitute myself at their dodgy conference or nonsense journal" said Pickering #Acadenua

Yes!! JAMA Cardiology joins JAMA & other JAMA Network journals on Bluesky! Just in time for #ESCCongress @jamacardiology.com @jama.com @jamanetworkopen.com #MedSky

Using AUCs to evaluate & compare diagnostic risk scores, especially where a score is a simple dichotomy is just wrong to me. Does anyone know of literature that demonstrates why? #StatsSky #Statistics

Reading number eleventy-million why folks should read studies before citing them or quoting specific stats from them! Understanding data, its purpose, & its uses and misuses is a 21st Century skill we’ve neglected. #data #vaccines #science #stats www.statnews.com/2025/08/13/r...

I'll be advertising a couple of PhD scholarships (breeding/wood quality, breeding/remote sensing) in the next couple of weeks, working with me and even cooler people at the School of Forestry, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. They cover uni fees + stipend for 3 years.

This reminded me.... my first ever experience of a computer (mid '70s, Lincoln College as it was then, #NZ) was of one that played noughts & crosses & cheated! When it was about to lose it wiped the screen & said "Hard luck, try again." ps. They've basically been doing that to me ever since.

Hey Kiwis, did you know that if you head out early evening at the moment & look up you’ll be staring at the galactic heart? Here’s a couple of #stunday star forming regions near there. Spot the pillars of creation. #NZ #Astronomy

Been working on a tutorial on synthetic data for open science for @lmu-osc.bsky.social A draft version is now up: lmu-osc.github.io/synthetic-da... It covers model building, evaluating synthetic data utility with density ratio estimation, and disclosure risk. Feedback is very welcome!

Dammit -- thanks for the catch!

Light pollution is causing birds around the world to sing for longer each day, prolonging their vocalizations on average by 50 minutes, according to a new study in Science. Learn more: https://scim.ag/3Uz7vzP

Ata Mārie What a beautiful greeting this morning ... Venus and Jupiter hovering over the Kaikōura mountains this morning. Couldn't resist a "snap" #NZ #Christchurch city under the cloud

Multiple #NZ Media outlets reporting today with sensational headlines about what a terrible place NZ is for heart health care. None I've seen tell you where to find the report... so I found it for you: www.kmtrust.org.nz/cardiac-impa... #CardSky #Cardiology

This is depressing. The Advanced Technology Institute could be impressive, but not if it is funded by raiding successful programs where proposals compete for attention in favour of a system which could see bureaucrats "picking winners" www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/...

All you cardiologists and researchers, don't forget to take the time out to celebrate. #CardioSky #Medsky #EMSky

If you wondered if academic publication might be broken, here’s Anton to explain just why it is, with an amazing example from the University of Canterbury.

I wonder if in the current trial I'm analysing I produce a result that suggests the intervention is a flop if I will get fired? #Statistics the last bastion. Hang in there folks.

pst... and we do research that changes practice, which you can join in with, ... do consider this opportunity #ED docs

If you've ever wanted to move to New Zealand – or even just test it out for a start – you can't get much better an option than Christchurch. Come join our EM family and see for yourself. cdhb.careercentre.net.nz/Job/Emergenc...

Can anyone tell me if #NZ #Stats on life expectancy at birth are based on all people NZ or all people born in NZ [I expect there would be differences]? (new analysis just released www.stats.govt.nz/news/maori-h...)

S values instead of p-values? "Yet in terms of the potential of S values to change the interpretation of evidence against a test hypothesis, Kenneth J Rothman put it succinctly: “If the S value moves us away from focusing on significance testing, it is worth a try”" #AnSky doi.org/10.1111/anae...

"AI" seems to mean different things to different people. When refereeing I have asked people not to use the term because I didn't think it was accurate, but maybe I am being a bit too precious. So, I thought I'd survey you as a bunch of intelligent engaged people, what do you think AI really is?

Excellent reporting by Radio New Zealand. #NZPol www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-dept... Appalling decision to continue to subsidise Big Tobacco by #NZFirst "Health" Minister. Check out the link to the lack of evidence. What next - tax cuts for Nike in the hope people will jog more? #Smoking #Health #HTP

I think we should stop using the label "null results". It's a misnomer that devalues the importance of research findings. Research is a competition of hypotheses. Any outcome of this competition advances science, no matter how strongly attached we are to our own theories. 1/3

Per capita plots are a proud Kiwi tradition, but has anyone seen this one? (Hat tip to @planet4589.bsky.social for the data)

Join our team - we are hiring an Analyst to focus on population statistics in Pacific island countries and territories. Based in Suva, Fiji. Applications close on 10 August. Ideal: #rstats, #git, #statistics, #demography and interest in small states & the Pacific. careers.spc.int/job/statisti...

For the 3rd time astronomers have detected a visitor from another star system. 3I/ATLAS is likely a large comet older than our sun. I captured it, twice, from my #NZ backyard & with the help of astronomers at #SETI here it is. Gotta love citizen science. #Astronomy

The brilliant 52 year long Dunedin Study is making waves in the OECD flip.it/XUj8Bg #NZ #Health #MedSky. Comprehensive report for OECD here: www.oecd.org/content/dam/...

I struggle to see how this is a great decision when there are two experienced med schools (who will now face poaching of staff) all set and ready to take on more students. www.1news.co.nz/2025/07/21/g... #NZ #Health

A new Otago-led study has found that several former leaders of the world's nuclear-armed countries had health impairments while in office, raising concerns of impacted decision-making abilities while having access to nuclear weapon launch codes. Read more here ⬇️

lol #MedSky

Colleagues know I'm working on a massive data set to finish a 7 year trial. Colleagues sent no new emails overnight. Good colleagues.

1/ Aluminium in Vaccines — What 1.2 Million Kids Just Told Us A huge Danish study by @andershviid.bsky.social and team just looked at aluminium in childhood vaccines and 50+ chronic diseases. What did they find? Not harm. Not even a whisper of it. Here’s what you need to know ⬇️

The impact of an ED atrial fibrillation pathway on anticoagulant prescribing doi.org/10.1111/1742... #OpenAccess @wiley.com @laurajoycenz.bsky.social ‬ @kiwiskinz.bsky.social #MedSky #EMSky #EMedSky #emimcc #ACEM

Honey, some monkey stole my banana, have you seen it around? #Astronomy NGC3199 the Banana nebula #Stunday

Solid read from Dr. @gidmk.bsky.social 👇🏻

To moa or not to moa? flip.it/i6mKrY #NZ They argue a "moral responsibility", but on whose "morals" scale? If they did this, it would have to be caged (not fit for modern ecosystem). Is that morally responsible? What do you think? #De-extinction