A way of gaining perspective on the (lack of) imminence of population decrease is to find TFR that solves demographic balance =0 and compare this to actual TFR. Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria. My new paper. genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

🆕 Fresh in GENUS: A novel look at how migration changes what “replacement fertility” really means for European populations - by @nickparr.bsky.social. 🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Completely bewildered by citation of my paper to back up text about a topic I have never written about.

Survival inequalities expand in DK by socioeconomic group. New paper by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social, @svigezzi.bsky.social, @juliacalla.bsky.social, @sandrsalek.bsky.social, @ikashnitsky.phd, find that almost 1/4 poor men vs 1/20 rich men die pre-retirement. 🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Plans to replace 2031 census in England and Wales set to be abandoned after backlash Pleased to read this

👉 Check our new publication - by Li, Cheng, Liu & @emitanaka.org: "Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks" 🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

www.smh.com.au/politics/fed... This article might interest those looking to link results of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.

Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters theconversation.com/global-popul... Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data and the importance of having such data.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025... Far right hijacking debate on population issues.

I provided some comments for this article on projected population spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

The day I realised this is exactly how university rankings work was not a day which helped in my fight against cynicism

A quokka and Rottnest Island beach yesterday.

Low fertility may lower conflict potential in the longer term www.businessinsider.com/asia-countri...

Components of population growth for Australia. The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024

Causes death for children in the United States of America. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/b...

Campop blog #25: In today's blog Leigh Shaw-Taylor uses local case studies to illustrate the surprising complexity of English occupational structure in the early 18th century, before the industrial revolution @camunicampop.bsky.social www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...

Which TFRs would prevent population decrease in 2024 if deaths and net migration are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates? China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024) Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40) South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68) Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)

www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-ins... The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to 10.1 million in 2041, despite a low assumed fertility rate. The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw... I provided comment for this article on projected population growth for New South Wales

theconversation.com/australia-in... Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.

The evidence gathered from 127 peer reviewed papers shows that climate change impacts increase economic inequalities and disproportionately affect the poor, both globally and within countries on all continents 3/10

Link to my starter list of demographers and adjacent

My favourite paper onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Australia's once universalist family payments system has gradually wound down to a more residualist one through changes to indexation and eligibility. From ~100% coverage in the 1970s to below 50% coverage in the 2020s 😬

Slightly more than half of the Hungarian population (56%) live to reach Hungary's life expectancy age of 77, the lowest share in Europe. Countries with higher life expectancy generally exhibit lower inequality in lifespan. #demography #Hungary #Inequality

Video of the weekend… Koreans talk about the country’s very low birth rate (TFR: 0.65). They seem to conclude it’s down to cost including housing. Vox Pop in Korean with English subtitles. youtu.be/7qafHvFPf2Y?...

X users jump to Bluesky - but what is it and who owns it? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Childlessness has skyrocketed in Japan, and risen sharply in post-Cold War Eastern Europe. It has started rising again in the US, but not as dramatically. #demography #fertility #rstats code at github.com/schmert/bone...

📢In this provocative @vypr.bsky.social, Baschieri & Snow argue that individuals impact emissions differently and that we need a more evidence-based use of demographic data for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. #climatechange #demography #WiCVienna 🔗 austriaca.at/0xc1aa5572_0...

NEW: US adults who say they use YouTube 85% Facebook 70% Instagram 50% Pinterest 36% TikTok 33% LinkedIn 32% WhatsApp 30% Snapchat 27% Reddit 24% X/Twitter 21% www.pewresearch.org/internet/fac... * Maybe Bluesky will show up on this chart in a year or two

An interesting map from the article: The net migration rate, showing whether more people are moving into a country or leaving it. If a country is blue, more people are moving in than out during that year. If red, more people leaving than arriving. ourworldindata.org/explorers/po...

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw... In almost half of Sydney’s council areas dogs outnumber children. Wondering if there has been any research on relationships between pet ownership and family size.

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw... I provided some comments on the demographic background to primary school enrolment trends in Sydney for this article.

theconversation.com/global-popul... Andrew Taylor and Supriya Mathew discuss the implications of projected population decline for the environment.

“The whole fertility crisis Is bogus” www.theguardian.com/world/articl...

abcnews.go.com/US/vance-arg... JD Vance argued childless Americans should pay a higher tax rate. Any views on this US demographers? #demography #politics

Wishing demographers everywhere a happy mid-year population estimates day (whichever time zone you are in and whenever you define it).

#Debate piece just out at the @vypr.bsky.social ! . Susana Adamo suggests that #climate change mitigation strategies and #ClimateAction need to take into account their potential interactions with population mobility #demography #sociology 👇. austriaca.at?arp=0x003ef8cf

IMHO, this is little more than trend extrapolation. Fancy statistical sophistication notwithstanding, it will predict a lower TFR 75 years from now if in last 30 years TFR has gone from 6 to 3 than it has gone from 1.8 to 1.5

Lancet TFR forecasts for 2100: Bangladesh 0.97, India 1.04, Pakistan 1.16, Morocco 1.02, Saudi Arabia 0.97, Togo 1.24. All lower than forecast TFR for Western Europe. I am wondering about the coherence of these forecasts. Any thoughts BSkyers?