Great night for Dems. And proud of our team.

A lot of noise out there, but latest @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social shows Trump's economic ratings at a low, increasingly negative views of tariffs, continued negative sentiment on the economy, and people uneasy about their personal finances.

Trump's economic approval rating is the worst it's been since @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social started tracking the metric way back in 2018. And his disapproval on handling inflation is 61% and on his handling tariffs at 59%.

Hard to pick which numbers are the worst for Trump in the latest NYT/Siena poll but it's probably that 50% of voters think he's made the economy worse and only 21% say he made it better, leaving him under water in terms of his economic approval (43% approve/55% disapprove).

NEW: @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social survey fielded over the weekend puts Trump economic disapproval at 42% approve/55% disapprove (-13), which is tied for the worst he's ever had in this poll across both of his terms (Jan '19 after a prolonged gov't shutdown was the other time it was this low).

Musk and Tariffs in a tight polling battle over which can become the most unpopular albatross around Trump's neck... (Musk chart via Morning Consult and tariff chart via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social)

Musk becoming the clear the lightning rod. In a message test of various statements about GOP threatening Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, the clear top statement is about Musk saying Social Security is "the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time." Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

The public becoming increasingly negative towards tariffs, and tariffs (along with high prices) are dominating the negative conversation around Trump's handling of the economy. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

They were even incompetent in how they tried to break records laws by setting their disappearing messages to up to four weeks!

New @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social report on Trump's handling of the economy out this AM. Half of voters say that Trump's economic policies since taking office have negatively impacted the economy vs. just a third who say positive.

GSG President @nickgourevitch.bsky.social weighs in on how inflation and economic sentiment could shape Trump’s second term in CNN’s latest analysis. Read more: www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/p...

Another day, another poll showing Donald Trump receiving very poor ratings on the main topic (the economy), the voters who swung towards him most wanted him to address. Via Quinnipiac:

Trump's cuts are uniting his opposition and siphoning off a portion of his base. Focusing on issues that do this is how Presidents become unpopular. Via today's CNN poll:

The latest @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social poll finds growing negativity towards tariffs, especially those against Mexico and Canada. Only those who strongly approve of Trump are positive - Independents and not-strong Trump voters are net negative.

Interesting look at where Musk's numbers are worse than Trump's... Among Trump voters, Musk's negatives are higher with non-college Trump voters and less politically engaged Trump voters. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

@jessefferguson.bsky.social spot on with this: “In every postmortem on 2024 or planning discussion for the years ahead, the fundamental question every Democrat should ask is: How will this help us grow?" t.co/9xEPssHIws

Calling it "Musk's DOGE" instead of just DOGE, increases its negatives by 10 points. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

JD Vance’s statement that it’s not appeasement if the invaded country can’t win is both a jaw-dropping read of history and an open invitation to dictators across the world.

To a question about layoffs at the CDC, McCormick said that their jobs were "duplicitous because of AI." Good luck to GOP members if that's their answer for why they are gutting scientific research, laying off veterans, firing park rangers, and so on.

Rarely do you see a polling result so universal than this data from the Quinnipiac Poll on Putin's untrustworthiness. Everyone seems to understand this except...

Drip, drip, drip. Elon Musk slowly getting more unpopular with each passing week in the YouGov/Economist poll.

Re: this AM's inflation report: Inflation and the cost of living is voters' top concern -- 59% of voters say this. But only 29% say that's what Trump/GOP is focusing on, which is down 7 points from mid-January. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

Many political observers have memory-holed what an actual modern day presidential honeymoon looks like. Trump's numbers well below where Biden was at this time in his presidency. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

Musk's favorable rating is already under water, and can get worse. 24% unfavorable with Republicans is notable. Important to keep the pressure on and volume up.

The polling on tariffs starts off in a pretty bad place, with various polls saying voters oppose them, think they’ll make costs go up, will hurt their family, etc. Not that surprising after an election where the top issue was costs and inflation.

Something to keep an eye on amid the flurry of Trump news. Public opinion is quite mixed on the idea of Trump's tariff plan, with plurality opposition and a lot of "unsure." Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social (full report: navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/u...)

Big news! GSG's Jefrey Pollock and @nickgourevitch.bsky.social have been named the top Democratic consultants in New York on @cityandstateny.bsky.social's 2025 Political Consultants Power 100 list, with GSG ranking #2 overall. 🏆

There's a lot of uncertainty among the public around tariffs and Trump's plan for them, but it all starts off in a net negative place, via latest @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

Polls that over-represent hyper engaged voters likely had more pro-Dem bias than polls that didn't. From the @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social post-election report, Harris did best with those who say politics is very important to them, and worse with those who do not (and w/ non-2020 voters).

In House battleground districts, the economic argument that voters heard the most about Dems was that they'd make the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes. They heard less from Dems about cost of living and middle class taxes. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

One tension in the election was that swing voters slightly aligned with Democrats on back-and-forth economic arguments, while at the same time viewing their personal financial situation negatively (and taking that out on Democrats). Via latest @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social post-election report:

Swing voters in the presidential election were more likely to get their news about politics from social media than base voters of either side. Via @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

Bipartisan agreement Pumpkin pie is the best Thanksgiving pie.

Harris actually did better on empathy traits like “cares about people like you” and “looking out for the middle class” while Trump did better on “fix it” traits like economy/inflation/gets things done

News consumption studies are tricky (and do exist!). One wrinkle: people's answers vary by mode of interview, so you will get different answers to this question if you call people up vs. text them vs. use an online panel, etc. The only real truths are that habits are diffuse and change regularly.

A hurdle for reclaiming mantle of"populism" is true populism equals more than "standing up for little guy." It involves issues where little guy's instincts run against elite consensus and "expertise." Covid era increased polarization on trust and created a wedge with white/college Ds on one side.

No doubt fewer people are reading newspapers of any sort, and truly appreciate any survey with a 40+ year time series... But at this point, you need to consider changing the question as it's not clear how you answer this question if you read the news online but not a physical paper. Here's the q:

Agree! I'm a believer in vote recall and our polls would've been worse without it. However, its not the only topic and need to keep the smart thinking going. The other big focus we had this cycle was around engagement/political identity which is far trickier & worth continued innovation/conversation

Alternate headline for this chart: Divisive president-elect starts second term with more voters feeling negative than positive towards him. We don't need to grade him on a curve.

Hey look that’s me. Some thoughts within on the election. And if you want more nuance, I’ve posted some threads on post-election data lately that I’ll link to this post as well. wapo.st/4fDtQVL

There’s going to be a lot written about what explains 2024’s election results and what we (Democrats) can do better in the next election. It’s worth remembering that those are related but distinct questions. The next election will be different than the last in numerous ways.

Interesting info here. Undervoting only adds to the complexity of "what happened" reports in our increasingly razor-thin & hyper-partisan elections. It's very tricky to disentangle what's turnout, what's ticket-splitting/persuasion, and what's undervoting, but it's sure important to try!

Post-mortems should take a long look at this slide: Trump did better on the macro (national economy, inflation), while Harris was far more competitive on personal economics (i.e. "looking out for middle class", "cares about people like me"). Via latest @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social

Both/and is the one truism. Turnout and persuasion. Economics and human rights. Moderates and progressives (allowing each other to exist despite their differences instead of eating each other alive). Rural, suburban, and urban. I could go on… but basically we need addition, not subtraction!

Both the right thing to do ethically and politically. We don’t have to run campaigns on it, but there are plenty of voters in our coalition for whom this is important and the first rule of midterms/odd years is to keep the base engaged, not alienated. LGBTQ voters are a core part of the coalition:

First (of several) @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social “what happened” reports is out. The core dynamic: Trump won the 15% of swing voters by 8 points, who disapproved of Biden presidency, said inflation was the top issue, and had far more positive views of Trump’s presidency than Trump the person.

Lots of good thoughts in Thomas Edsall’s piece this AM about future of Dem party, including some from yours truly. I just wanted to share what I wrote that came after the piece that was excerpted in the column as it presents a fuller picture of my views. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/o...

The most important reason to count votes faster is that narratives matter for how elections get covered by the media, which ultimately matter for governing. This was a squeaker, not a landslide, but has not been perceived by the average voter as such.

Come on over to team “vote recall weighting” Nate Silver, the water is warm. From his NYT op-ed: “Until this year, I would have said that the cure of weighting by recalled vote was worse than the disease. Now I’m not so sure.” www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...

The most consistent finding on this topic from our own work is that when you give people some kind of choice (mass deportation vs. pathway to citizenship or legal status), the latter usually wins out by a good margin. As seen in both major exit polls: