One more game for the NWSL Championship! The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup. The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.

Create a fucking designated player exception. This league makes me so mad sometimes.

Semi-finals for the NWSL start tomorrow! Elo sees the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC as favorites, but neither is an overwhelming favorite, so an upset is definitely possible!

NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽ KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.

The @americansocceranalysis.com model is driven by the possession value ratings of the players in the announced XIs. The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season. The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.

NWSL playoff odds using my Elo model! Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.

And here's the final NWSL table positions - Gotham in particular still has decent odds ranging from a home playoff game (15%) to going to KC in the first round (19%). Still lots to play for!

Elo NWSL predictions - only one round left! Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!

And for those curious about where each team could finish, here are the probabilities of each place #NWSL

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Playoffs are virtually locked up, but there is still jockeying for position among 3rd-8th. Orlando and Gotham FC are looking good for the home playoff games at the moment.

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance. Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.

New #NWSL Elo ratings! Louisville jump back into 8th, and Seattle's playoffs odds go above 90% despite their low rating. Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.

Gift Monday is special

#NWSL Elo predictions through week 21! The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition. Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.

New #NWSL Elo predictions through week 20! Gotham has stormed into 3rd, and the race for the top 4 remains close. North Carolina is right outside in 9th, but the rest of the pack has fallen behind.

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.

"the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave" this is your fault with the restrictive salary cap!? Silver lining is maybe this will be the wakeup call the league needs to loosen the rules.

New #NWSL Elo rest of season predictions! Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.

Angel City can not do this if they want to truly become a global club

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games! Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.

#NWSL Elo-based rest of season predictions through week 16! Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.

Really puts the Current’s dominance into perspective

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games! The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model. Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.

New #NWSL ELO predictions through MW 14! The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.

#NWSL ELO predictions halfway through the season! Shield is all but wrapped up, but the rest of the table is very intriguing with only 6 points separating 3rd and 9th. Top teams at the break: Current, Pride, Thorns (!), Racing (!!), Gotham, Spirit. Chance for summer signings to make a difference.

Week 11 #NWSL predictions! Orlando is the only team with any shot of catching Kansas City, and that's looking less likely every week. The race for the other two top-4 spots is tight, with the Spirit & Wave having the inside edge right now. North Carolina into 8th after their stoppage time win.

Week 11 #nwsl ELO predictions! Louisville into 6th on average and in a strong position for their first ever playoff appearance (80%). Despite their table position, Gotham is still likely to make the playoffs, but it's close from 7th to 11th.

#NWSL ELO predictions through week 10! Not much change overall, but Louisville is into a stronger position after their win over Angel City.

Bonus ELO predictions for the CONCACAF Champion's Cup 🏆 Gotham and Portland are favorites, with around a 1/4 chance of the trophy going to Mexico. For the Mexican teams I adjusted Opta global power rankings data. #NWSL

New #NWSL season predictions! KC Current have a strong hold over the Shield and their title odds are nearing 50% - the projected Shield margin is biggest since 2018 North Carolina. They're setting themselves up to be a juggernaut. Elsewhere, Portland surges into 4th and Gotham falls to 6th.

The Spirit thrashed Utah IDC about the scoreline. It might be the difference between the Shield and not but this is objectively a very strong performance. I still think with pieces back this is one of the best teams. #nwsl

This was already a ridiculous schedule by the #NWSL and now the Spirit need to fit another game on the 16-18th. This needs to be solved ASAP (and Angel City needs to figure out their scheduling so this doesn't happen).

#NWSL ELO predictions through Sunday's games. Gotham + Thorns look good despite neither picking up 3 points, and the Spirit's odds fall despite winning against Chicago. If the Current can win @Orlando next week, their Shield odds are going to get very close to 100%.

Remaining #NWSL strength of schedule based on ELO ratings and home/away matchups. Utah and Chicago have the two hardest schedules remaining, and the Spirit and Current have the easiest. Line represents an average difficulty schedule.

#NWSL Elo predictions through week 7! Despite some chaos, KC and Orlando still remain in a good position for the Playoffs/Championship, and are the two teams with realistic Shield odds. Wave's playoff odds are 80% after their recent victories, and they've got a 1-in-3 shot at top 4.

#NWSL Elo model predictions through week 6 (rating change includes the midweek game as well)! Even though they lost, KC is in a good position for the Shield, and places 5-9 remain tight. The model remains confident in Louisville despite their table position due to strong xG numbers.

Mini #nwsl Elo prediction update after Gotham vs Portland. Portland into 5th after their big win, but only 2 projected points separates 5th and 9th. Gotham falls a bit behind Orlando and Washington on projected points. KC, of course, is way ahead.

Fresh #NWSL Elo predictions, new and improved! I found today that NWSL games tend to produce a win at a smaller xG margin than I expected, which changes the ELO rating system. Overall contours are the same, but KC is even more dominant, and Louisville looks like a strong contender.

#NWSL Elo predictions following week 5 games! At the top, KC's lead for the Shield increases, and the Spirit jump the Pride into second. The model still thinks Angel City's start is a mirage, as they sit 8th overall. The Wave move closer to Bay, who remain best of the non top-4.

#NWSL ELO predictions following week 4! Gotham's dominant win over North Carolina pushes us back into a "top 4", while the Courage fall to 12th. The model isn't convinced on Angel City's strength, but they've banked enough points to be 5th on playoff odds.

#nwsl Elo predictions through week 3! (One small note: I made a tweak to better weight the new season's results). 5 groups emerging: Top 3; Gotham + Bay FC; Mushy middle of teams with a coin flip odds of the playoffs; Portland + Utah with an outside shot of the playoffs; then Chicago

Her metrics this season are truly excellent, especially her shooting and box activity, which is something the Spirit are missing with Sarr out. She's had a big step forward this season & competition in Liga F can be weak. Need to see how she adjusts, but I expect her to start getting minutes.

#NWSL Elo predictions after week 2! KC Current jump into the top positions as favorites for the Shield after their win over the Spirit, and the Wave and Reign find themselves on the right side of the playoff line.

Elo #nwsl predictions through the first week! Not too much change, but the Royals sneak over the playoff line into 8th and the Thorns drop down to 13th.

Final projections are here! We averaged the Elo model built by @trevorl.bsky.social and the model from @americansocceranalysis.com, which yields this table. Basically, there's the top-4 and everyone else. When four points separate fifth from 12th, that means it's a coin toss.

Of course, I post this and then Sophia Wilson announces her pregnancy. Updated results here; Portland falls to 12th place, with their playoff odds down to 33%.

My ELO model 2025 #nwsl predictions! The predictions are based off the end of season 2024 ratings, as well as utilizing DAVIES database to measure team change. Overall, the Spirit and the Current are the favorites for the Shield, and there are 7 teams hanging close to the playoff line.

Will the Washington Spirit, a team coming off a Championship appearance and one of the league favorites, get a front page article in Sports in 2 weeks before their Challenge Cup game?