New #NWSL rest of season predictions! Two tiers at the top - Washington & Portland in 1A, and San Diego & Gotham in 1B. Behind them, KC and Orlando still have a ~5% shot of the shield. North Carolina still finds themselves on the right side of the playoff line, aided by good performances.

New #NWSL season projections following the midweek action! Washington Spirit are the favorites for the shield, but Spirit, Wave, and Portland are all in the chase. Gotham FC moves into the top-5.

New #NWSL predictions! Wave and Spirit are in a tight race for first. Gotham and North Carolina are back into the top-8 after wins over the weekend. Utah's rise has given them a 50/50 chance of the playoffs.

New #NWSL predictions! Wins by Orlando, KC, and Washington push them into a top-5 with San Diego and Portland. It's tight at the top, but San Diego's current point total gives them the edge on the shield. Another 5 teams have around a ~50% of the playoffs behind them.

New #NWSL predictions! Big shakeup at the top of the table, with San Diego Wave taking over as the Shield leaders. Kansas City falls to their lowest projection in years. Spirit, Courage, Gotham, and Dash are straddling the playoff line, but it's very close from 2nd - 9th.

New #NWSL projections after a chaotic set of midweek games! KC Current stay first, but the Shield race is much more wide open, with 4 teams having a 10%+ chance. Gotham slips all the way to 8th following their defeat. There's basically no difference between the projections for 2nd - 6th.

New #NWSL Elo Season Projections following week 2! KC's loss opens the Shield race up, with their odds down to 36% (still comfortably the highest!) Among the leaders, the model believes in Angel City (6th) more than Houston (10th). The two expansion teams are at the bottom after tough games.

#NWSL predictions following the first week of games! North Carolina into 3rd over the Spirit, and KC continues to separate from the pack - a strong week one performance gives the model no concerns about their turnover.

Sharing my #NWSL preseason predictions one more time before the season starts tomorrow! Since last post, I normalized the offense/defense ratings so 100 is average for both. You can see how different from average the model thinks your team is in both phases of the game.

With the season starting next week, I've got my Elo #NWSL predictions! I've added offensive and defensive rankings to each team, which allows for goal differential predictions and smoother results. The results are based on last season's ratings (with an adjustment to account for the new year).

This was a good breakdown! On the KC side, I think Bethune + Debinha + Sentnor is a tricky combo. I overlaid their heatmaps from last year here, and there's a lot of overlap in the middle of the park.

If your goal is to win games, this makes no sense. If your goal is to make money by buying youth and selling them back to England in a few years, well...

Utterly embarrassing for the #NWSL that the winner of the #WorldSevens takes home a $2m cash prize for a three day tournament and the salary cap in the NWSL is $3.5m.

I can't remember where exactly but there was an interview clip from championship week where she talked about wanting to be like Alex and the other USWNT players who came before her and fight for what's right

I think there's enough owners who would rather have a second-tier league with lower costs than a world-class league, which sucks. I'm not sure the long-term solution to that either, even if the Rodman contract is resolved.

The league is still in the "we have to just survive a couple more years" mindset from the first years of the league. I get it. I was there. But we're like, a decade older than either of the previous leagues. Its time for us to go to a thrive mindset instead of survive.

This is the most optimistic post I've seen by far on the Trin news.

One more game for the NWSL Championship! The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup. The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.

Create a fucking designated player exception. This league makes me so mad sometimes.

Semi-finals for the NWSL start tomorrow! Elo sees the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC as favorites, but neither is an overwhelming favorite, so an upset is definitely possible!

NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽ KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.

The @americansocceranalysis.com model is driven by the possession value ratings of the players in the announced XIs. The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season. The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.

NWSL playoff odds using my Elo model! Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.

And here's the final NWSL table positions - Gotham in particular still has decent odds ranging from a home playoff game (15%) to going to KC in the first round (19%). Still lots to play for!

Elo NWSL predictions - only one round left! Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!

And for those curious about where each team could finish, here are the probabilities of each place #NWSL

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Playoffs are virtually locked up, but there is still jockeying for position among 3rd-8th. Orlando and Gotham FC are looking good for the home playoff games at the moment.

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance. Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.

New #NWSL Elo ratings! Louisville jump back into 8th, and Seattle's playoffs odds go above 90% despite their low rating. Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.

Gift Monday is special

#NWSL Elo predictions through week 21! The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition. Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.

New #NWSL Elo predictions through week 20! Gotham has stormed into 3rd, and the race for the top 4 remains close. North Carolina is right outside in 9th, but the rest of the pack has fallen behind.

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.

"the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave" this is your fault with the restrictive salary cap!? Silver lining is maybe this will be the wakeup call the league needs to loosen the rules.

New #NWSL Elo rest of season predictions! Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.

Angel City can not do this if they want to truly become a global club

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games! Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.

#NWSL Elo-based rest of season predictions through week 16! Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.

Really puts the Current’s dominance into perspective

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games! The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model. Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.

New #NWSL ELO predictions through MW 14! The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.

#NWSL ELO predictions halfway through the season! Shield is all but wrapped up, but the rest of the table is very intriguing with only 6 points separating 3rd and 9th. Top teams at the break: Current, Pride, Thorns (!), Racing (!!), Gotham, Spirit. Chance for summer signings to make a difference.

Week 11 #NWSL predictions! Orlando is the only team with any shot of catching Kansas City, and that's looking less likely every week. The race for the other two top-4 spots is tight, with the Spirit & Wave having the inside edge right now. North Carolina into 8th after their stoppage time win.

Week 11 #nwsl ELO predictions! Louisville into 6th on average and in a strong position for their first ever playoff appearance (80%). Despite their table position, Gotham is still likely to make the playoffs, but it's close from 7th to 11th.

#NWSL ELO predictions through week 10! Not much change overall, but Louisville is into a stronger position after their win over Angel City.

Bonus ELO predictions for the CONCACAF Champion's Cup 🏆 Gotham and Portland are favorites, with around a 1/4 chance of the trophy going to Mexico. For the Mexican teams I adjusted Opta global power rankings data. #NWSL

New #NWSL season predictions! KC Current have a strong hold over the Shield and their title odds are nearing 50% - the projected Shield margin is biggest since 2018 North Carolina. They're setting themselves up to be a juggernaut. Elsewhere, Portland surges into 4th and Gotham falls to 6th.

The Spirit thrashed Utah IDC about the scoreline. It might be the difference between the Shield and not but this is objectively a very strong performance. I still think with pieces back this is one of the best teams. #nwsl