TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-... 🧵

"Defending." #fpl

GW9: I’m ready to get hurt again. Welcome R James, Eli Kroupi and A Semenyo. Off you go Foden, Gyokeres and Andersen. Experimenting with my own player model now b/c it’s fun! GL all!

New article: "Shrinkage, Uncertainty, and Son Heung-min: Using Bayesian Methods to Identify Finishing Ability" which discusses using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying player finishing ability, with credible intervals to express uncertainty. pena.lt/y/2025/10/01...

GW8: Nothing to see here. After getting over my Semenyo rage I decided to roll to 3 FTs and captain the big guy. Not expecting much this week but good to bank another transfer. Good luck!

GW7: Going with this as a chance to actually roll a transfer. Fernandes an interesting captain alternative apart from the fact that MUN are generally awful and SUN have decent defence. Good luck all!

If you’re having a bad week on FPL, it could be worse. You could be Sean Longstaff who benched Sean Longstaff and then Sean Longstaff scored and hauled 15 points #FPL

💹 GW6: final market odds updates An update from sharp betting markets ahead of the FPL deadline, including: 🔹 Projected goals and CS odds 🔸 WDL odds

GW6: Not drowning, wildcarding. I ended up with this lot, choosing Mbeumo over Cunha, defying the machine. I feel better with Haaland in the squad but will miss Salah 🥺Good luck all!

5 PL draws this week 😮 these opening weeks are ridiculously tight

Umm. GW5: Murillo begone! -> welcome Van Dijk and BB active. GL all!

💹 PL GW5 matchups A first look at sharp market projections for this weekend’s PL fixtures: projected goals & CS%, teams to target & WDL odds 👇 📉 As it stands, GW5 is the lowest goals/match projection from markets since April 2023!

Love the ASA data but wish you had a helping hand in turning it into fancy plots and graphics? Introducing the ASA Viz Hub from @cata-bush.bsky.social www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2025/9/...

GW4: It’s not looking good. JSL -> Thiago, squandering another FT and now officially lumbered with 2 x NFO defence. Have a better one!

As promised, one tier is free. A first taste for everyone wanting to try an analytics tool in #FPL. Details below. #FPLCommunity #PremierLeague

With Ange Postecoglou set to take over at Forest, we went back to look at some DEFCON data from his Spurs spell His high line + pressing style generally created more DEFCON chances for opponents than for his own players 👇

I'm feeling less sure about 2 x NFO defence #angeball

GW3: It can only get Wirtz (who is still in my team). Palmer and Guiu -> Anderson and Gyokeres. The NFO boys will come good at some point, right? Bruno cap and OR 8m. LFG!

GW2: rolling. The only real decision was Sanchez or Dubravka. I went the latter because who can argue with 0.1 EV? GL all!

I see we’ve reached the Ah shit, here we go again stage of the season. This is where I got to, trying not to overthink things early on as everything will change quickly. Good luck everyone!

Model output and projections for the new PL season. ***Model has no off-season info, so is rating teams on their May 2025 level, it will adjust pretty quick as we get some matches played*** I expect Brentford, Wolves to be worse than model suggests I expect Tottenham to be better

Two days to go before I start tinkering with my FPL team🙌

Incredible to watch the Lionesses retain their Euros title🙌 Big props to Chloe Kelly for taking the winning penalty but Hannah Hampton was once again incredible in goal and deserves a lot of praise for keeping Spain out!

Independent poster front

Worth a listen (I'm only 20mins in) - it's a different approach to analytics based play

Would also add that I think Sarina deserves big credit for making the call to take her. It's a massive decision to leave out Fran Kirby and take a 19-year-old with three WSL starts to her name.

Great to watch her in action. Amazing performance this evening!

💹 Top projected Premier League scorers, via spread betting markets 👇 A first look at season-long goals projections - for those players currently priced Always an interesting one to track as new #FPL names and markets are added over the next few weeks

Free Premier League Predictions 🏆 The internet’s best free Premier League prediction page just got its first 25/26 update. ⚽️ Goals ➡️ Assists 🔄 Goal Involvement ⚖️ W/D/L % 🧤 Clean Sheet % 📊 Simulated Table More to come - enjoy! 💜 www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le... #FPL

GW1 Women's Euros model 🤓I dusted off my team strength model, did a proper treatment of home field advantage and came up with some xG predictions and stuff. So far so good, although I have my doubts about Wales-Netherlands. But we'll see

For perspective: a recent study suggested that economic savings from just a *single* well-predicted hurricane, thanks to NOAA research advancements, are on order of *$5 billion.* That exceeds NOAA's *entire proposed annual operating budget.* So much for government efficiency.

[extremely Shaq voice] www.thetransferflow.com/p/get-it-to-...

Worth a watch: Head of Signal, Meredith Whittaker, on so-called "agentic AI" and the difference between how it's described in the marketing and what access and control it would actually require to work as advertised.

10 years ago today, we dropped a thing that people still ask me about regularly. The question "What's Really Warming the World?" still has the same answer. With Blacki Migliozzi, in conversation with NASA GISS geniuses @climateofgavin.bsky.social and @drkatemarvel.bsky.social 🎁🔗

𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒-𝟐𝟓: 𝐄𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 The headline numbers are in - injury incidence and burden are down across all metrics - compared to the previous PL campaign... but they're almost identical to 2022/23. ▫️ Time-loss injuries - 593 ⬇️ 9.5% ▫️ Days Out - 21451 ⬇️ 14.6% ▫️ Games missed - 2597 ⬇️ 14.9%

Word of the day: internecine

GW38: The final frontier. Trippier, Marmoush -> Schar, Evanilson. It is what it is, and soon will be was what it was. OR 47K and MD ranks around 1K. Good luck all!

💹 PL GW38 updates Post-press conference latest - with final pre-deadline updates tomorrow 🔹 5 teams now projecting 2.5+ goals - LIV, ARS & BOU lead the way 🔸 ARS, NEW & BOU all 40%+ CS odds ▫️ Updated #FPL AM projections - Pereira top choice with Spurs win% taking a tumble

GW38 PL model. Team strengths: a clear top 4 and bottom 3, and a two tiered middle with EVE, MUN, WHU, WOL and TOT falling away from the rest as we've seen in the table. ARS finish as best defensive team, and LIV as best attack

Over the past five seasons, #FPL GW38 has averaged over 20% more goals per game than the rest of the season - and there's always been at least one thrashing! 👇

And here’s the squadra for GW37. No transfers, Palmer cap and hoping for not too much damage. OR 50K. Good luck!

GW37 model update. NEW now the second best attack in the model, and EVE maintain their position as one of the best defences. BRE rightfully pushing for a European spot, with CHE and AVL the likely contenders for the 5th UCL place. NFO aren't done yet though

💹 PL GW37 matchups Early look at market projections for the penultimate round of PL fixtures, covering: 🔹 projected goals & clean sheet odds 🔹 teams to target 🔹 #FPL Assistant Manager projections 🔹 WDL odds

Fantastic ending to Baroness Kidron's speech in the House of Lords yesterday, which led to the government's defeat on AI & copyright. Speaking the UK's creators: "Their property, their labour, is worthy of your protection - because apart from anything else, it is not ours to give away."

GW36: If a bench boost is played in a SGW did it really happen? And does anyone care? Transfer drumroll: Murphy -> Schade and relying on Mbeumo for captaincy. OR 55K. Good luck!

📊 PL GW37–38: Who's on the beach? With the title + relegation settled, the focus is largely on Europe - here’s an idea of which PL teams might have a bit less to play for by GW37 & 38 👇 🏖️ = % chance of being locked in or eliminated from Euro races, based on 100k market sims

GW36 model update. First team strengths, CHE nudging into fifth which could be enough for the UCL spot. The game against NEW will be interesting. NFO and AVL a bit further back with a real job to do. And BRE are surging in the last few weeks

'We need to raise the probability even more' - Arteta. This is also my rule of thumb

💹 PL GW36 matchups Early look at market projections for the weekend's round of PL fixtures, covering: 🔹 projected goals & clean sheet odds 🔹 teams to target 🔹 #FPL Assistant Manager projections 🔹 WDL odds