Here’s the weekly change in overall rating so far this season 📈 Each panel uses an independent scale, so you can see how sentiment is trending for each team

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (9 Nov 2025) Man City making sure Arsenal don't get comfortable. Most interesting relegation fight in years. Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Performance vs Expectations 📊 (5 Nov Update) As a reminder, this model view shows who’s really improving or declining by factoring in what most expected stats ignore: fixture difficulty, game state, red cards, pens, finishing, and more.

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (3 Nov 2025) A simple week overall, with results mostly in line with expectations. Except one: West Ham’s surprise win keeps the relegation battle exciting. Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (26th Oct) Almost impossible for Arsenal to mess it up now 🏆 Wolves are the new favourites for 20th. ⬇️ Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Wolves have flirted with relegation for too long. Since 23/24, they’ve shown no improvement, just stagnating at relegation standard. Benefiting from good bounces and weak promoted sides. At some point, that luck runs out.

This is your weekly reminder that Arsenal are going to win the Premier League 🏆

Most of the “expected” data content you see is still misleading, even in GW7. It ignores context like fixture difficulty, game state, red cards, penalties, finishing, etc. This model view adds that context back in, giving you a clearer picture of change in performance levels.

Arsenal will win the Premier League 🏆

A huge win for Arsenal. They gained 3.1 points on Liverpool in the title race (based on pre-gameweek expectations). Sometimes 3 points will feel like they’re worth more! Big swing.

Where does everyone stand after GW5? 📊 Model and website updated 🔄 Liverpool extend their lead 🏆 Leeds looking increasingly safe from relegation 🔒 Top half finish would be a success for Aston Villa at this point 📉

THE AMORIM DECISION. In this weeks post, I explore the question of what should Man United do with Ruben Amorim. www.elevenify.com/p/2526-05-th...

What should Man United do with Ruben Amorim? Newsletter decision analysis in your inbox tomorrow 📩

GW 3 - 8 Team Projections 📊 Some team goals and clean sheets for the BlueSky crowd. Remember these are always available in live updating tables on this page here: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

The Premier League is back. 🏆 Time for a boring nerd to remind you: don’t overreact to week-one noise. Latest short newsletter on why we overreact to the early season noise - and how not to. Link below 💜 www.elevenify.com/p/2526-04-ho...

📊 25/26 | GW 2-7 ⚽️ Team Predicted Clean Sheets

📊 25/26 | GW 2-7 ⚽️ Team Predicted Goals

The Overall Team Rating History chart, going back to 23/24 is live and working on the site. You can hover to isolate a team. I will add the charts showing the granular changes in Attack/Defence this season after we get a bit more data, so they are more visually interesting.

Website updated ✅ GW2+ data now live 🖥️ In other news that definitely won’t cause any controversy: Arsenal now top the league projections. *logs off*

Here are some match preview snapshots for the 3pm kickoffs 📊 📸

Spent this morning making the data page on my site (hopefully) work much nicer with mobile If you’re a frequent user of my site on your phone, I’d be super grateful if you sent me any thoughts! 💜

25/26 #02: Table 💻 25/26 Newsletter #02 is out - a look at my model’s predicted table alongside Spreadex market data. This is probably the most informed guess you can have right now about how the season might unfold. www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Šeško vs Højlund 📊 An add-on to yesterday's newsletter, here is a look at United with Šeško vs Højlund. Getting a lot more goals with Šeško.

25/26 #01: Snapshots 📸 First newsletter post of 25/26. Giving some insight into how players may contribute to my Team Ratings. Šeško, Gyökeres, Arias, Palhinha, Muñoz, Andersen, and Wirtz as examples. 💜 www.elevenify.com/p/2526-01-sn...

25/26 Gameweek 1 Predictions 📅 One week out. Here is an early look at the match predictions for GW1.

Fast Fantasy Model live table is back for 25/26 ⏰ This is how I put fantasy on 'easy mode' with little time investment. You're unlikely to do badly if you pick players from this table you think will start, roll often, and adjust sensibly for your own beliefs and chip strategy.

Erling Haaland 🇳🇴 Such an exciting transfer window for strikers that it is easy to forget the best goalscorer is already in the Premier League. A 'bad' season for him still sees him end up with the highest npxG p90 in the league!

Yearly reminder that pre-season is an unreliable indicator of any 'meaningful' season trends. If there is any signal, it is in fitness, squad availability, tactics/set-up/formations. Individual performances, goals, assists, and especially results are almost entirely noise.

25/26 PL First 6 Weeks Team Goals / Clean Sheets ⚽️🧤 Latest look at the goals and clean sheets for the first 6 weeks. Season is getting closer!

25/26 GW 1-6 Goal Involvement ⚽️🅰️ (28 July) Latest look at the top 15 for goal involvement for the first 6 weeks. Gyökeres straight in at number 5. This is a very fun summer - still lots of unknowns, so lots will change!

Morgan Gibbs-White 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Interesting. MGW is involved in everything they do, and they would be worse without him. However, that is a lot of money. I would have taken it. Would have loved to see him at City, the one team I'm confident his numbers would have exploded at.

Bryan Mbeumo 🇨🇲 He won't have as much output at United, but he shouldn't need to in that team. I think everyone knows it is a bit too expensive, but there are not many alternatives if you want a profile like Mbeumo - especially if being left-footed is what you want.

Viktor Gyökeres 🇸🇪 Might be a hot take, but this deal does not particularly move me. He will score goals in that Arsenal team, but I don't think it moves the needle enough relative to Liverpool and Man City. They could win the league with Isak.

Clean Sheets and CBIT Baselines 🧤🛑🚧 I have added a new live scatter plot to the blog. It might help when thinking about the new #FPL changes. I will remove this at some stage, so enjoy for now! 💜

25/26 PL First 6 GW Goal Involvement ⚽️🅰️ Updated version with full player base as of today. Blog tables all updated to top 20 players. Still very early. A month is a long time and the transfer market is looking particularly busy.

Added a new Goal Involvement scatter plot view to the blog. Same data as the tables, just testing it in a different view. Hover to show predicted numbers. Sometimes seeing data differently can make decisions easier. Feel free to play around whilst I am testing. www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

25/26 PL First 6 Gameweeks Team Clean Sheets 🧤 Here is a very early first look at team clean sheets over the first 6 gameweeks of 25/26.

25/26 PL First 6 Gameweek Goal Involvement ⚽️↩️ Here is a very early first look at team goals over the first 6 gameweeks of 25/26.

25/26 PL First 6 Gameweek Goal Involvement ⚽️↩️ Here is a very early first look at who is likely to be involved in the goals over the 6 gameweeks of 25/26.

Free Premier League Predictions 🏆 The internet’s best free Premier League prediction page just got its first 25/26 update. ⚽️ Goals ➡️ Assists 🔄 Goal Involvement ⚖️ W/D/L % 🧤 Clean Sheet % 📊 Simulated Table More to come - enjoy! 💜 www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le... #FPL

Round of 16 #FIFACWC Player Predictions 📊 Projections assume a start and are based on a version of my team model with @solioanalytics.com player data. Full list for free on the blog

#FIFACWC MD3 Prediction Pack 📊 Predicted goals and assists for matchday 3 fixtures. Projections assume a start, and are based on a version of @elevenify.com team model with Solio player data. Full list for free on elevenify's blog: www.elevenify.com/p/free-club-...

#FIFACWC GW1 Goal Involvement ⚽️➡️ Predicted goals and assists for the first games. Projections assume a start and are based on a version of my team model with @solioanalytics.com player data. Full list for free on the blog (www.elevenify.com/p/free-club-...).

Free Club World Cup Player Predictions ⚽️↩️📊 @solioanalytics.com x @elevenify.com combine to provide you with live data tables for #FIFACWC. Goals and Assists for nearly every player. Link: www.elevenify.com/p/free-club-... Enjoy 💜

Tottenham have declined significantly after two seasons under Ange 📉 Early criticism focused on poor defensive control (now even worse), but this season, the attack stopped being the redeeming feature (~15% worse). Overall, they are now a below-average PL team.

Free Club World Cup Predictions 🌎⚽️📊 📅 Match Predictions ⚽️ Goals 🧤 Clean Sheets ⚠️ Warning: these are made with maximum vibes and minimal diligence. This is for *fun* because people keep asking. Not the same standard as PL predictions. Enjoy 💜 www.elevenify.com/p/free-club-...

Mark writes good stuff and is worthy of some support 👇

24/25 done! 💜 A fantasy rank of 1309 wraps up 6 lucky years with a career average rank of 10k. 🌍 A great season for the team prediction model, beating spread markets in both MAE and the number of times closer to actual xG and Goals. 📊

GW38 Match Predictions 📊 For the last time this season: model-derived match predictions for GW38. Season Mean Average Error: 0.92 to Goals, 0.59 to xG. This is *slightly* more accurate than market predictions (data frozen at FPL deadline). Hope everyone found them useful! 💜

These days I am enjoying upcycling my notes on decision-making into short 2-minute ‘mini-essays’. Not football, but may be of interest to some people. 3 posts so far on risk appetite, quitting, and making your own luck. Upcoming posts on trade-offs, scams, and feedback. ondeciding.substack.com