I think some people who think the BOJ won't hike out of concern for the debt aren't realizing how catastrophic that prediction is. If the BOJ effectively subsidizes the government's spending (and moves the issue into FX) it's already an implicit loss of monetary independence!

New paper (w @elizabethacox.bsky.social ): Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0 ICE activity reduced employment for undocumented immigrants in US, did NOT increase employment for U.S.-born workers & generated negative spillovers in immigrant-intensive sectors bit.ly/3QZWbxW

Gonna go on the record and say I think it’s a mistake that the Bank of Japan didn’t hike. They were already on a hiking path, and the uncertainty here is not outweighed by the prospective supply shock.

I really disagree with Powell's current approach to forward guidance. They should be breaking it out like BOC did last year as conditional paths depending on how oil behaves. Treating the baseline of oil being a transitory shock is really unhelpful for forecasting future rates.

Fed distributional politics time. Powell really likes the wage compression during the tight labour market. He doesn't think inflation was due to overweighting inflation (think of Taylor rule coefficients). Basically veiled advice to not be scared of a tight labour market.

Fed still talking about tariff driven inflation being temporary, but this only makes sense if expectations stay anchored. Suffices to say I have no faith in Warsh on this.

Canada's SWF seems to have no real plan beyond being an accelerator for the politically favored projects. Hopefully those projects are also the important ones!

I don’t think this website actually held much relevancy in what has been a months long campaign by dem consultants and insiders but that it’s known as a bastion for the type of person who takes that bait like catnip is, in fact, bad.

Due to all the wealth tax discourse going on I thought I'd share some of the recent research on it. Guvenen, Kambourov, Kuruscu, Ocampo-Diaz, and Chen study a revenue neutral shift from capital income tax (capital gains) to a wealth tax in the United States. static1.squarespace.com/static/62465...

This is how we teach zoomers game theory

TACO is just an involution operator since TACO^2 does nothing.

What are MMT people on? How does it differ from the mainstream and it’s just an NK model with persistence and financial frictions.

Highly Unlikely Btw

I agree on the short term. But useful to listen for his deeply held positions with such hits as no forward guidance and balance sheets too big.

Warsh arguing for trimmed inflation measures but doesn't know it's the Bank of Canada's preferred measure. Do basic research to support your points what a joke.

"I believe that price stability should be a change in prices such that no one's talking about it" - Warsh Great so as long as I talk about it he failed at his job

And that’s good!

Not about this post in particular, but the economist and FT love to put arrows to exaggerate the point which I think is a major graph crime. Somehow it's the only one unique to British outlets. Maybe they yearn for the 3 arrows.

WSJ op-ed pages delenda est

Economists talk about luxury/progressive conusmption taxes, but we can go futher. Punitive 1000% sin taxes on every Veblen good.

Iron hands is lowkickenuinely goated

Chrystia Freeland confirmed generational flop

Most intelligent CPC voters

Optimal politics are voting for the NDP and then celebrating the Lib majority. Econmists will rule Canada for eternity and Avi's successor must follow in Carney's footsteps.

Can't wait for somebody to hack a major bank to get access to slightly lower interest rates.

Vance going to islamabad this weekend. Can't wait for vivek to weigh in on this.

Maximum Leverage referenced!!!

Japan intervening in oil markets to save the yen making Trump more likely to is a sign that we need one single monetary union across the CPTPP(Obama Edition).

BOJ not gonna have a fun time when they wake up.

Why do economists love non standard analysis so much?

I didn't know they let vulgar marxism into QJE nowadays.

Someone please write "Warp made the state, and the state made warp: a theory of interstellar state-building"

Who up microfounding they misallocation models.

I’m pretty sure allowing for such an exemption is not on the law. So potentially they’re breaking the law to do fewer tariffs for once.

He knows “when to be a good boy” to “sway the court”. This should be the only headline

This is the aspect where the Canadian university system excels.

What don’t they want us knowing?

We are finally getting a developmentalist FX policy. Now we can start exporting all those automobiles to Japan 🤯

The memetic density of the four corners is insane.

They put me in the NorthernLion 67 room.

New fronts in the propaganda war. @sharonk.bsky.social www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8ffSs8R/

Analysis is so much more intuitive when you think of continuity as a local boundedness property.

They Kirkified JPow. www.instagram.com/reel/DTauw7_...

Kirk now racistly solves calc problems with yakub on reels.

They should invent a second natural basis for L^2.

Quick reminder that CPI is biased upwards roughly 0.8%-1.4%.

So people have resumed normal spending after initial tariff fears because firms haven’t been hiking prices. If SCOTUS keeps the tariffs it’s gonna undo at minimum the last year of economic growth.