“Jews are spiritually Wasian” - an Indian

Not sure how I feel about 2 because I think the main alternative is freemium/gacha models of monetization which are way worse for consumers. In fact under some fairly realistic assumptions they can perfectly* do third degree price discrimination.

Bouie and Eva in the same post. This is my hole

Dibs on formalizing Iran’s optimization problem.

What is Econ academia anymore with Cherry starting an investment firm and Chad Jones going to Anthropic.

The breakevens are plunging BECAUSE the Fed tightening is being priced.

obama if he wanted to resign as british prime ministter uhhhh let me be keir

or interests rates in 2194 are lower due to Hormuz opening so the PV of datacenters on mars is higher

Toronto’s so woke even the crosswalks are bisexual

Canada don’t lob the ball into the box challenge

FUCK

Time to short SR3Z

Today's re:zero episode is truly one of them. An incredible episode but possibly the darkest themes yet.

DPK putting up great numbers in the local elections. Korean women will save us from international fascism.

Fed still acting like they have infinity credibility even though core PCE will sit above 3% for a few more months if they don’t hike.

Markets will learn PPI impacts core inflation next year.

How come nobody told me that JS Mill foresaw Godel’s results?

I’m amazed at how little my politics have changed in a decade 2016-19: new deal democrat (progressive) 2020-22: new deal democrat (socdem) 2023-now: new deal democrat (lib soc)

WE will be pursuing contradictory policy

What do you even say to someone that fundamentally believes religious minorities need to be marginalized for the sake of the nation? Pointing to the liberalizing and multicultural hopes of education didn’t yield anything.

Gobetti is surprisingly prescient for someone who never saw the postwar international settlement.

I didn’t realize that there were eurofeds among the 48ers. We must retvrn.

Consumers understand that Warsh's QT will perfectly counteract his rate cuts 🤯

Truth Nuke

I'm gonna say I really think central banks need to hike into stagflation. The growth ramifications will be bad but unanchored inflation expectations both kill investment and force bond yields up anyways for governments.

I think some people who think the BOJ won't hike out of concern for the debt aren't realizing how catastrophic that prediction is. If the BOJ effectively subsidizes the government's spending (and moves the issue into FX) it's already an implicit loss of monetary independence!

New paper (w @elizabethacox.bsky.social ): Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0 ICE activity reduced employment for undocumented immigrants in US, did NOT increase employment for U.S.-born workers & generated negative spillovers in immigrant-intensive sectors bit.ly/3QZWbxW

Gonna go on the record and say I think it’s a mistake that the Bank of Japan didn’t hike. They were already on a hiking path, and the uncertainty here is not outweighed by the prospective supply shock.

I really disagree with Powell's current approach to forward guidance. They should be breaking it out like BOC did last year as conditional paths depending on how oil behaves. Treating the baseline of oil being a transitory shock is really unhelpful for forecasting future rates.

Fed distributional politics time. Powell really likes the wage compression during the tight labour market. He doesn't think inflation was due to overweighting inflation (think of Taylor rule coefficients). Basically veiled advice to not be scared of a tight labour market.

Fed still talking about tariff driven inflation being temporary, but this only makes sense if expectations stay anchored. Suffices to say I have no faith in Warsh on this.

Canada's SWF seems to have no real plan beyond being an accelerator for the politically favored projects. Hopefully those projects are also the important ones!

I don’t think this website actually held much relevancy in what has been a months long campaign by dem consultants and insiders but that it’s known as a bastion for the type of person who takes that bait like catnip is, in fact, bad.

Due to all the wealth tax discourse going on I thought I'd share some of the recent research on it. Guvenen, Kambourov, Kuruscu, Ocampo-Diaz, and Chen study a revenue neutral shift from capital income tax (capital gains) to a wealth tax in the United States. static1.squarespace.com/static/62465...

This is how we teach zoomers game theory

TACO is just an involution operator since TACO^2 does nothing.

What are MMT people on? How does it differ from the mainstream and it’s just an NK model with persistence and financial frictions.

Highly Unlikely Btw

I agree on the short term. But useful to listen for his deeply held positions with such hits as no forward guidance and balance sheets too big.

Warsh arguing for trimmed inflation measures but doesn't know it's the Bank of Canada's preferred measure. Do basic research to support your points what a joke.

"I believe that price stability should be a change in prices such that no one's talking about it" - Warsh Great so as long as I talk about it he failed at his job

And that’s good!

Not about this post in particular, but the economist and FT love to put arrows to exaggerate the point which I think is a major graph crime. Somehow it's the only one unique to British outlets. Maybe they yearn for the 3 arrows.

WSJ op-ed pages delenda est

Economists talk about luxury/progressive conusmption taxes, but we can go futher. Punitive 1000% sin taxes on every Veblen good.

Iron hands is lowkickenuinely goated

Chrystia Freeland confirmed generational flop

Most intelligent CPC voters