Sitting under the European heat dome, we predict global surface air temperatures of 1.62°C (2026) and 1.71°C (2027) above pre-industrial. 2026 will (more likely than not) be the 2nd hottest year on record, with a chance of becoming the hottest, depending on how El Niño develops.

Die globale Erwärmung hat sich signifikant beschleunigt, siehe @derstandard.at zu einer aktuellen Studie des @pik-potsdam.bsky.social 👇

Sad to see that leadership didn’t approve of my suggested post language (assuming since this is what is posted) that I submitted on my last day in May as the social media manager. Allow me share some of our team’s kind words here instead:

"Österreich hat sein CO2-Budget für das 1,5-Grad-Ziel bereits 2022 verbraucht." www.derstandard.at/story/300000...

Just out: Our new paper addressing urgently needed clarity for the Paris Goals, given the imminence of the 1.5°C-crossing of the long-term global surface temperature anomaly. These results further underscore the need for deep & rapid emission reductions worldwide.

#Train2EGU 🚄 #EGU25

The NOAA layoffs aren't just crude, they're a direct attack on US capacity to do climate science by firing highly productive young researchers. @zachlabe.com has an insanely strong publication history, part of the Fresh eyes CMIP team, WMO task teams etc. /1 www.gfdl.noaa.gov/zachary-labe/

Level of global warmth in 2023/24 can only be explained by an acceleration of human caused #climate change based on @ioppublishing.bsky.social statistical analysis of multiple drivers: doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Now that everyone has their annual temperature data out, here is a quick summary across groups. In addition to record warmth in every dataset, it's the first year where most estimates are at least 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warmer than the 1850-1900 baseline. berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe... 🧪

The data is in. 2024 was the warmest year on record, and probably in the whole of human history – about 1.6°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. More than 1 billion individual thermometer measurements, made by thousands of people over many decades, have been condensed into a single number.

The Global Climate Highlights 2024 report is now online. Delve in the analysis and access all the charts, information, and data on temperature, sea ice, precipitation, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Explore the data that defined 2024: https://bit.ly/40kQpcz #C3S #GCH2024

2024 was the first year above 1.5°C. This does not mean that the 1.5°C level has been broken through. What remains to be seen is whether this is a continuation of 2023's trend, and what the causes are. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

@kleinezeitung.at follow-up zu den 1.6+°C (und rund doppelt so viel in Ö), insb. interessant re. "Technologieoffenheit" etc... www.kleinezeitung.at/meinung/denk...

Die globale Temperatur in den Messdaten von 5 Instituten verglichen mit den Projektionen von Klimamodellen laut #IPCC-Bericht (schwarz, Unsicherheit grau). 2024 ist das wärmste Jahr seit Beginn der Messungen; nach paläoklimatischen Daten wahrscheinlich sogar seit 120.000 Jahren.

IATA projects a 6% increase in air passengers in 2025 ! Not one single word on environmental impact. Except in the cost section. Cost of carbon credits and « sustainable «  fuel will be about 0.5% of revenues 🤬 www.iata.org/en/pressroom...

Very strongly related to the whole surface temperature issue:

[dramatic first bluesky post] Gottfried Kirchengast and I here at the @wegenercenter.bsky.social have predicted that the global annual average 2-metre air temperature will be (1.62 +/- 0.05)°C above the pre-industrial level. Some additional thoughts: