From the archives: learn about the statistical concepts of "capture-recapture," also known as "multiple systems estimation." hrdag.org/tech-notes/b...

Accompaniment - acting as a witness and support to human rights advocates in conflict zones - is core to HRDAG's history and origin story. Today, those principles still guide our work in data and statistical reasoning. hrdag.substack.com/p/all-of-the...

blog post: 3rd helpings of the logit shift You have multiple outcomes, but only some have aggregate truth to shift to. How can we calibrate our estimates of p(y_1, y_2 | X) to aggregate data about E[y_1] ? @wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton have ideas !

HRDAG is part of a global community of human rights partners, and collaboration is key to everything we do. Today we celebrate one of our long-time partners, Valentina Rozo Angel, joining the Global Rights Innovation Lab Clinic at @ucberkeleylaw.bsky.social www.law.berkeley.edu/article/expa...

Join HRDAG's Maria Gargiulo at RightsX Summit to explore how citizens and human rights groups use data to seek justice. Registration here: rightsx.ohchr.org

Today and every day, we offer gratitude to our donors and funders. Thanks to your support, we use science to defend truth and human rights.

Today we express gratitude to all the survivors who shared their stories with our research teams, from Guatemala to South Africa to the United States and beyond, as we researched and analyzed state violence. Your stories help pave the way for justice and accountability.

blog post: quantity vs quality compare 2 surveys: 1. 100% coverage, but response probability P[R = 1 | Y] differs a lot by Y 2. Only 5% coverage, but P[R = 1 | Y] is roughly constant across Y which would you use ? both ?

“As researchers and research activists, it’s our responsibility to question what gets measured and reported and how” - @thegargiulian.bsky.social discusses the importance of mortality estimation research

So excited to see this piece out in Demography. We find that exposure to community-level homicides is associated with higher probabilities of contraceptive first use and provision. This paper forms the basis of my ERC Starting Grant on how local violent crime affects SRH in Mexico. 🇲🇽 More to come!

Want better AI? Involve human experts. New research from HRDAG and Cornell's CAT Lab offers powerful evidence for how participatory models improve reliability and validity. hrdag.org/2025/11/17/n...

new blog post: sampling the sample we’ve focused on estimating means E[Y]. but say Y are openends ("describe how you feel about the candidate") and you want to read thru a few draws from the population, not only survey responders. what should you do ?

HRDAG's executive director Megan Price teamed up with CAT Lab Founder @natematias.bsky.social to research how human participation can improve AI. Read our latest findings. hrdag.org/2025/11/17/n...

New article in @pnas.org: when scientists bring in the public, it can directly improve the science of AI. hrdag.org/2025/11/17/n...

Up next in the London Universities Population Seminar Series: On 25 November at 12:45, Dr Isadora Cruxên (QMUL) will present “Co-creating feminist technology to confront gender-based violence and feminicide.” Join us in G08 (Keppel Street) or online: www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

For #FollowFriday: Follow LSHTM's centres, projects & groups for more on work to tackle some of the biggest challenges in #PublicHealth 🎉Welcome to new addition @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social! go.bsky.app/4FczAGW

Check out the programme for our upcoming Annual Event, a #humanitarian research showcase ✨ 🗓️ Tue 25 Nov, 17.30-19.00 GMT 📍 LSHTM & online Featuring @gordonneve.bsky.social, @thegargiulian.bsky.social & many more ⬇️ www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

blog post: weights and MRP for voters so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall. but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters. what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?

HRDAG recently hosted a conversations with our colleagues in the human rights and data justice community about recent attacks on our field in the United States. Watch the first part of that conversation: www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UHk...

Como enfrentar a tirania? Acima de tudo, não perca os dados. Palestra de Patrick Ball e Megan Price, do @hrdag.org hrdag.org/2025/11/05/w...

Numbers can’t bring back lives lost, but they can support truth and accountability. That's why @hrdag.org uses statistical analysis and careful data curation to ensure we know the truth about state violence.

HRDAG remains a nonpartisan, nonpolitical organization. Our mission is focused on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Today, we denounce violations of human rights occurring in the United States. hrdag.org/in-the-face-...

blog post: MRPW you've got a survey collected by someone else, and they gave you weights. how can you use those weights in the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) ?

Join us next week to hear from @farid-flici.bsky.social on population ageing and social security sustainability in Algeria 🇩🇿 🗓 Wednesday, 22 October 2025 🕐 12:45–13:45 (BST) 📍 KS-LG19 💻 Zoom: lshtm.zoom.us/j/89990670777 ℹ️ More details: www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...

📆 Te esperamos este sábado en el foro público "Tejiendo saberes desde lo local" para escuchar y compartir experiencias en materia de búsqueda de personas e identificación forense. ⏰ 9:30 am 📍 Centro Cultural de España en México 🎟️ Entrada libre. ¡Hasta encontrarles!

Today is Donor Advised Fund Day. Make a big impact with your charitable contributions by sending a donation to @hrdag.org today. hrdag.org/2025/10/08/d...

blog post: struggles with equivalent weights you've done MRP. someone asks you for survey weights. how to get them ?

blog post: beyond balancing in midterms, voters tend to support the out party for balance do polls still help predict midterms ? yes

LSE and @bspsuk.bsky.social are hosting a workshop on "Being an academic in population studies" on 3 November! It'll be a nice mix of methods training and career advice with great talks by @ericbschneider.bsky.social, Wendy Sigle, José Manuel Aburto, and others! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/being-an-a...

blog post: Fat Bear Week Basu's Bears is a lesson in: 1) using auxiliary information (pre-salmon-feasting weights) 2) how bad an unbiased estimator can be statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/23/s...

The data is now available for all teams who've already signed up! More sign-ups very welcome! Happy analysing! 💻📊

blog post: random sampling is not leaving we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead" but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?

blog post: random sampling is not leaving we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead" but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?

HRDAG stands firmly with the human rights community in insisting that encryption is not optional — it is fundamental to the defense of truth. Any attempt to ban or backdoor encryption technology is a threat to the human rights community. hrdag.substack.com/p/without-en...

¿Qué son los controles civiles y por qué importan para resistir a la militarización? 🪖 Te esperamos en este espacio gratuito y accesible convocado por Intersecta. Participa nuestra analista de datos Sierra Wells. Regístrate: bit.ly/FM25INTR 📆 Jueves 11 de septiembre, 19 hrs.

blog post on imputation (again): we want E[Y|X] but X can be missing @lucystats.bsky.social @sarahlotspeich.bsky.social @glenmartin.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social et al. say: random imputation should use Y deterministic imputation shouldn't statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/09/s...

🚨Job Offer🚨PhD Student Position The @lshtm.bsky.social, in partnership with the @mpidr.bsky.social is opening an 18-month Research Assistant position, with the successful candidate embarking on a PhD program at LSHTM. www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61... @ezagheni.bsky.social #phd #jobs #demography

blog post: connections between survey statistics and experimental design. split-plot designs are analogous to cluster sampling. blocking is analogous to stratification. featuring an experiment by Arjun Potter and colleagues at NM-AIST !

🗣️Exciting PhD opportunity! Join @lshtm.bsky.social PSG and @mpidr.bsky.social as a PhD student/Research Assistant on an 3-year project leading to a funded PhD. The role focuses on developing cutting-edge methods to model health & mortality in low-income countries. jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

📢 Interested in excess mortality methods, and want a challenge? I'm organising the "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Register *now* as a many analyst team (submissions due 15 March 2026), and then join us at LSE for a workshop on 21-22 May 2026! (1/n) www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...

blog post: Thomas Lumley writes about Interviewing your Laptop what are the problems with using LLMs as survey respondents ? how are these similar to problems with poststratification ? CC @tslumley.bsky.social

blog post: answers from the BLS 2 weeks ago we learned about the CES employer survey that produces the jobs count. we asked: why use employment size in stratification but not nonresponse adjustment ? BLS responded ! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/19/s...

blog post: 2nd helpings of the 2nd flavor of calibration 🍨🍨 in political surveys, we "logit shift" predictions to match known aggregates (e.g. total Democratic votes). but what happens for multinomial outcomes ? a fun excuse to review IPF/raking 🍂 statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...

blog post: BLS Jobs Report let's learn about the CES employer survey that produces the jobs count. late reporting (a form of nonresponse) results in revisions. my first (naive !) question: why use employment size in stratification but not nonresponse adjustment ?

📢Calling all sociology scholars, including social policy and demography: applications for the 2026-27 Sociology Visitorships at Nuffield College are now open. 🗓️Deadline: 29 Sep 2025 ℹ️More info & applications: www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/our-research...

blog post: a new paradigm for polling so far we assumed response R is independent of outcome Y **within X** but if R can depend on Y, what to do ? one idea: use a response instrument Z statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/07/22/s...

Join us to celebrate five years of #DataAgainstFeminicide & launch the Swahili version of our tools, co-designed w/ Femicide Count – Kenya 🗓️ Aug 14, 2025 🕚 11AM EDT | 12PM ARG/BRA | 6PM EAT 🌍 In English w/ live interpretation to Spanish, Portuguese, & Swahili Register: mit.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

blog post about longitudinal/panel data: panel data includes repeated surveys of the same people over time. this structure can be incorporated into models using person-level effects. but misspecifying the person-level effects distribution can cause bias.

blog post about imputation: With nonresponse worsening, we want to adjust for a lot of covariates. This often means handling many missing covariates. In theory, fit one big model for everything. But how can practitioners handle this ?

*really* excited for this ! love the name: Structural Zero. Alan Agresti's Categorical Data Analysis book offers a good explanation (which I'm sure the amazing authors at @hrdag.org will get into):