Trump’s suit against a legendary pollster could spell disaster for the whole industry: If politicians can credibly threaten to drag any pollster through a damaging, costly lawsuit at any time, the public will lose out. (@databyler.bsky.social) www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Does anyone know a freelance software developer who might be willing to do some work on a budget? Not a huge project

The Gaetz -> Bondi, Hegseth -> ??? maybe thing illuminates a big weird dynamic in GOP politics When they have running room, goodwill, capital, margin, whatever to burn, they burn it on the dumbest stuff Bondi would do all same stuff Gaetz would. So why burn time, etc on him??

New post on the substack! I evaluate how our pre-election polls went in 2024. Feeling ~7/10, subjectively Also -- this isn't a substack with a theme or a regular cadence. It's just me updating everyone on what's going on with my work from time to time substack.com/home/post/p-...

Related -- IIRC we did some polling in the summer of 2023 that showed Mitt Romney really unimpressive support Not clear he would have won (or at least won easily) if he ran, esp. after seeing many people voted against Spencer Cox in the same primary

I also don't think the recalled vote debate is over. But I do hope we can go from "is it cheating to weight on recalled vote" (a view mostly advanced by people who don't themselves field surveys) to "what is the best way to measure recalled vote and construct benchmarks for such weighting?"

Agree! I'm a believer in vote recall and our polls would've been worse without it. However, its not the only topic and need to keep the smart thinking going. The other big focus we had this cycle was around engagement/political identity which is far trickier & worth continued innovation/conversation

My hope for the recalled vote debate aftermath -- we get to a place where it's okay to try a lot of new things, not just this We can't assume the Census and voter files will track every relevant attribute of people, esp. in this era of crazy non-response. IMO ability to try new stuff is key

FWIW this was one of Trump's biggest problems in the first term Voters are like "man it would be nice if food was cheaper" and Trump is like "MATT GAETZ TIME!" (or some equivalent self-inflicted crisis)

this is how it's going *negative two months* into the administration

wow a lot of you are here!

I do a lot of stuff -- polls, writing, etc. -- and it's all scattered around the internet I started this so I can collect the best of it and circulate it to those interested! davidbyler.substack.com/subscribe No set frequency Will always be free Just me updating you on Byler Stuff! Sign up!

i have been sharing this over and over -- and now that pence is out, i will share it one more time why his candidacy was extremely predictably doomed, in one chart:

I really like wrike, the project management tool. TBH I'm an evangelist at this point but who founded the company and was like "Wrike? I'm saying it out loud -- good name! No baggage!!"

this morning, with zero context or prompting, the toddler laid on the floor and said "oh noooooooooooooooooo" glad he has fully inherited the david byler energy 🙃

every person considering a speaker run

A family friend's mother -- who speaks only Chinese -- managed to transfer to Ireland from ORD instead of transferring to Columbus The folks at the little check-in desk are not always paying attention

I'd like advice! I'm a pollster now, but I also do media hits + want to write freelance. I want to: a) collect past work in 1 place b) have a way to update ppl when a big article, poll, etc happens I'm thinking a website for a and newsletter for b Thoughts on that ^ plan? Best tools for either?