It was great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast to talk through #COP31 this morning. Take a listen here, and visit coterran.co for some more thoughts on why COP31 is about meeting the Pacific's greatest #security threat: #climatechange coterran.co/cop31-is-an-...

@copage.bsky.social Great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast this morning to talk through Australia's bid to co-host #COP31 with the Pacific, and why the benefits for Australia's partnership with the Pacific outweigh the costs of hosting: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQna...

I'm excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a new #climate and #security advisory. coterran.co/newsletter/launch Stay tuned for updates on analysis, products, and services by subscribing through coterran.co as I build it out.

Excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a #climate and #security advisory coterran.co/newsletter/l...

It was a privilege to host a workshop earlier this month in Canberra, on behalf of the @aspi-org.bsky.social, in partnership with adelphi and the Toda Peace Institute, on the theme of "Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region." #climatesecurity

Every President Since Lyndon Johnson Has Recognized the Security Risks of Climate Change. Then Came Trump. My article on this. www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

@aspi-org.bsky.social's 2025 edition of 'Agenda for Change', a major report on strategic challenges the next Australian Government must grapple with, is now out. In it, I argue that strengthening climate risk governance should be a national security priority. www.aspi.org.au/report/agend...

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 In ‘Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world’, ASPI experts analyse the strategic challenges facing Australia and provide recommendations to assist the next Australian Government. 🔖 Read it now ➡️ bit.ly/4izTkUA

This week PM Albanese announced Adelaide as the preferred city to host COP31 (if the bid survives the election). No knock to Adelaide, but if COP31 is meant to be co-hosted with the Pacific, then decisions on the host city should be done with Pacific input: www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-successful...

Great to join Thomas Oriti on ABC News Radio yesterday to talk about our report on climate risks to Indonesia's security. Take a listen (Part 1 here, Part 2 below!), read through a quick summary here (www.aspistrategist.org.au/climate-risk...), or the full report (www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...)

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 'Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific' reveals Indonesia’s economic and national security interests will be strained by climate risks in coming years, with consequences stretching across the Indo-Pacific. 🔖 Read the report 👉 bit.ly/4i7eyc4

Our new report out this morning assessing how climate risks could disrupt the economic and security interests of Indonesia - and in turn, those of Australia and the broader region. Thanks to the team, esp. Dr. Robert Glasser and @isabellebond.bsky.social www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...

Politico shared a leaked memo earlier this week to replace USAID with a new 'humanitarian assistance' organization, so I thought it was worth looking through what the plan is www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-us-hum...

I'm having a hard time reconciling the existence of ONI's assessment, with the scant two-sentence reference to climate's impact on Australia's security and interests in the newly released Independent Intelligence Review today. www.pmc.gov.au/sites/defaul...

Sharing a declassified version of ONI's assessment on Australia's security risks from climate change is critical. Without that, it's hard to have a full conversation on the risks of climate change, or costs of inaction. Great piece in the Saturday Paper. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environ...

24-26% of Australia’s GDP. This is the monetary equivalent the US has lost in damages from the LA fires. The experiences of mercenaries in warfare offer several lessons regarding climate-fuelled disaster responses and national preparedness that can help predict challenges and inform policy.

The LA fires are what happens when compounding climate risks catch us off guard. More than enough analysis from the past week driving that home - yet misinformation still abounds, so I think continued clarity on climate's role is still helpful. www.aspistrategist.org.au/la-fires-cha...

After three years in Victoria/Melbourne, I feel obliged to yell at the clouds that there are too many dummies behind the wheel on the roads. I'm sure unsurprising to Melburnians, but why are drivers here so entitled/stupid? Back to regularly scheduled climate security programming shortly.

Nuclear isn’t a silver bullet: it’s one piece of silver buckshot in the clean energy race. In most countries, it’s not public option holding it back. Rather it’s cost, and the long time it takes to build. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Beware the fusion hype cycle… “Commonwealth Fusion is bringing fusion to VA” is the headline — wow! — until we’re informed they haven’t produced more power than consumed & may or may not do so by 2026! www.latitudemedia.com/news/commonw...

My latest in the Strategist @aspi-org.bsky.social @copage.bsky.social www.aspistrategist.org.au/catastrophic...

I get the political calculation here. I'm just gonna point out that the predominance of research into European parties' efforts to outflank the far right like this has found that they merely legitimised the far right's political framing and led voters to opt for the "full fat" version.

There is a project in the US that aims to monitor for intentional addition of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, a la Neal Stephenson's TERMINATION SHOCK. #SRM ⚒️ "The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering" (GIFT LINK) www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/c...

Excellent study on how broad carbon pricing in Canada does not massively drive up food prices. Lo and behold, my colleagues who designed and got it off the ground knew what they were doing. Sadly carbon pricing's biggest problem in Canada isn't the policy, but how poorly it has been communicated.

Trump probes for weakness in negotiations. He found it yesterday in Premier Smith of Alberta. www.ctvnews.ca/politics/we-...

A call to abolish climate summits “is dangerous and plays directly into the hands of populists like Trump, Milei, or the AfD, who seek to dismantle global climate protection. [These summits] are the “sole platform where poorer nations can directly challenge [the] US [and] EU” (via @carbonbrief.org)

No one could have predicted this.

An excellent paper by my colleague at the Climate and Security Policy Centre, @isabellebond.bsky.social

Hi all, I am new to Bluesky - thought I would share a paper I recently published in the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence regarding issues of climate security @tandfresearch.bsky.social. If interested, please follow the link below! doi.org/10.1080/0885...

I've just created the "Climate Change Downunder" starter pack for all things climate change related in Australia. Here you'll find scientists, academics and professionals who work in the climate change space in Oz. Hit me up with new accounts to add! go.bsky.app/TK2pwCz

Re-upping for reaction! Keeping US engaged on intl. resilience in next 4 years is necessary. They aren't the only players, but adaptation gap in SE Asia/Pacific hard to close without any US support. Question is whether these angles will be salient; and even if so, could they be counterproductive?

Dear Bluesky friends, please see AUS energy & climate starter pack for those new to #Bluesky #ClimateChange #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergy @simonahac.bsky.social

NOAA’s life-saving work is at risk. If #Project2025 moves forward, the agency could be dismantled, downsized, or privatized. In his latest blog, UCS’s Juan Declet-Barreto highlights why NOAA’s work is critical for addressing climate change.

Excellent piece on the core mission of tackling #climatesecurity. Preventing the threat multiplying effects of climate is far less complicated & costly than managing failure; just as it is with climate mitigation and adaptation. Not possible in all cases, but we must everywhere we can.

My take on rationale countries like Australia can use to sustain US investments in climate, esp. resilience abroad, over next 4 years. Important conversation but by no means surefire, and not without complications. Keen to discuss flaws and risks. www.aspistrategist.org.au/to-work-with...

I got started on one in the 5 mins between meetings - but very much a WIP for now! go.bsky.app/J3783tF

Is there a solid list of climate misinfo researchers out there yet - or a climate denier moderation list? The former would be excellent, but the latter necessary as the conversations here grow. Would be best for a climate misinfo expert/org to curate, but happy to start either one if not.

Just published a paper in Nature Scientific Reports where we've trained a model to automatically detect logical fallacies in climate misinformation - part of our project using AI to debunk climate myths www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I'm super excited to share @carbonbrief.org's new and improved attribution map! Use the map to explore 600+ extreme weather attribution studies from all around the world: buff.ly/3URzsmI And check out my in-depth Q&A on attribution for all you need to know about this evolving field: buff.ly/4hRt4Gc

Sixth typhoon in a month makes landfall in Philippines - BBC News

One of the best things about working on climate is that my ass-kicking sister bsky.app/profile/cait... does too! Notable highlights include surprising ourselves and our bosses during introductions from separate sides of a 🇨🇦 federal (me) and British Columbia provincial (Caitlin) conference call.

Another important NOAA role not discussed here is international coordination for open data access, working with allies and partners to share info and best practices, and supporting US space and foreign policy. Such work can't be replaced by the private sector. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/c...

At #COP29? The State Department is running an immersive climate security exercise at the ODI pavilion at 1200-1300. Participants will inhabit a fictional country that suffers from instability & faces unique vulnerabilities. The goal? To strengthen resilience in the face of coming climate shocks…

Meanwhile, that unease is our intuitive sense of risk and uncertainty. It speaks to why uncertainty on a high stakes issue like climate should spur more action, not less, even as we refine forecasting and models. Wrote more on this from a security perspective here:

A few summers ago while laid up with COVID, I started a Twitter thread tracking military deployments in response to climate hazards. That l'il thread is now a real project at the Center for Climate and Security -- you can read our October update here: councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/11/13/o...

We need more data. We need more data. We need a strong NOAA, DOE, EPA. We need international cooperation and more data. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...

Agreed that an ill-informed/ad hoc push toward solar geoengineering might accelerate, which brings near term disinformation and geopolitical risks before we even get to the huge dilemmas about deployment and governance. @erinsikorsky.bsky.social wrote about this here:

This is exactly the kind of dumb but plausibly effective tech bro advocacy under Trump (twitter guy, not @davidho) that raises the risk of unplanned/tested/guided solar geoengineering being deployed if climate impacts really hit the fan in the next few years.