The alpha from coaching and quarterbacking is temporary, subject to inexorable pressures of competition and father time. The only durable alpha is competent ownership.

Happy New Year, Go Birds. (Photo credit: Mrs. Shazz). This post is mainly for Eagles fan @richbobbe.bsky.social.

The 2 seed is about 42% prob, conditional on beating WASteam, according to Vegas. The 2 seed is valuable. But WASteam is tanking, under Josh Harris’s direction (3rd string QB will play). I think this is the correct, judicious move: let your killers rest & recover so that they may do their thing.

Over the past 7 years, Kyle Shanahan has established firmly that he doesn't believe in load management or other modern injury management practices. In fact, the Niners bragged to The Athletic in 2023 that their practices are more intense, more frequent and longer than the other 31 teams.

The ESPN2 NGS feed is great. Dan Orlovsky is good at explaining, and seeing the graphics for formations, personnel, etc is cool. What a time to be a fan.

Chiefs ownership literally tried (and failed) to perpetrate one of the greatest scams in American financial history (thus inspiring the greatest Philadelphia movie of all time). They are low-rent, unsuccessful scammers, like Randolph and Mortimer Duke: www.scottsdalemint.com/articles/202...

A coveted award, held by such luminaries as Brian Daboll, Matt Nagy, Jason Garrett, Kevin Stefanski(twice).

“Well we wanted to establish the run. It all starts with Saquon.”

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO

This is worth your time. Finance nerds will remember the Eddie Lampert profile as the point where Mina became "must-read", before she began writing about our favorite TV show. It's been fun to watch, from the early days, her career arc. 👏

I doubt this Eagles team will make much noise in the playoffs. The QB has not been good in cold weather, and their best offensive lineman is injured. I don’t think Sudfeld is the answer, but how can you expect to win with Nick Foles and Halipoulivaati Vaitai?

Per @sumersports.bsky.social Stats & Schemes newsletter, against the Raiders the Eagles had a 91st percentile middle-of-field pass rate, and 94th percentile MOF EPA/Pass. Jalen can make those throws.

The end of half cowardice is maddening. Stop playing scared, Nick!

It is such a pleasure listening to Greg Olsen. He’s smart, numerate, knowledgeable and a superb teacher.

Let's be clear that turnovers are bad. But also: I would rather a QB not play scared, when he is demonstrably the most accurate (CPOE) over the past 4 years, and is an excellent deep ball thrower. Last week's outcome sucked. But a more aggressive, less scared offense is a good thing. Don't give up.

Old and busted: Lane Johnson with-or-without-you analysis. New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.

The reason numerate fans who pay attention to the game believe “the sky is falling” for this talented, expensive offense is the underlying, predictive metrics are atrocious. Take away the turnovers yesterday, they still had a bottom quartile success rate. Also bottom quartile for the season.

For those of you who like to emotionally hedge, the Eagles are ranked the 3rd best team in the league. For Eagles fans like me who believe that modern betting markets have sufficient liquidity for weak-form efficiency, this is good news. stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...

Each football season has so many dimensions of variability, what is the likelihood that 2025 will be like any of the years since the merger, let alone a recent one like 2023?

@daboulciff.bsky.social Can you make @sheilkapadia.bsky.social’s imagined discussion between Lurie, Howie and Jalen a standalone short? It is so, so good. That’s exactly the solution-oriented service journalism we need.

Eagles fans (including, presumably, the one fan whose opinion matters) are frustrated by a bottom quartile offense composed of pro bowlers and all pros at tackle, guard, QB, WR, RB and TE.

The success they've had (going two of the last three Super Bowls) actually serves to highlight/exacerbate the issue rather than providing a balm.

Eagles offense currently 17th in EPA/drive and 26th in success rate. Here are all the times over the past 20 years the Eagles offense has finished in the bottom half of the league in both EPA/drive and success rate: 2012 (Andy Reid fired) 2015 (Chip Kelly fired) 2020 (Doug Pederson fired)

The 2022 Eagles defense under Jonathan Gannon had a top 5 EPA/play, and a median level success rate. The latter was indicative of true quality. Similarly, the 2025 Eagles offense has a median level EPA/play, yet the bottom quartile success rate and series conversion rate indicate true quality.

For the seventh week in a row, I am begging a stranger to shave his head.

Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.

#Eagles offensive consistency metrics 40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05 42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20 38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14 70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20 33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders

I think the sample size is sufficient that Mr. Lurie should make the switch (back) to Kelly Green permanent.

The 2025 Eagles play a brand of conservative, boring offense, built around minimizing turnovers. I guess they looked at the analytics and realized it is unlikely for Jalen Hurts to reach, let alone win, a Super Bowl. They need to protect him.

I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:

I have been reading/watching the judicious Fran Duffy for over a decade. When he speaks in such stark terms (about the Eagles offense), you should pay attention.

I would describe Fran's review of the passing game in this one as "genuinely distressing."

In 2023, the Eagles ran "The Gauntlet" of top teams and faded down the stretch. This year, they have faced the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th ranked teams on Inpredictable, emerging 4-0 in those games, in pole position for the 1 seed in the NFC. stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...

Henceforth, we shall call this The Janky Rondo game.

Most organizations strive for mediocrity. Few seek to be great. I have worked in both types, and from my experience, a truly great organization needs an AJ Brown who is vocal about pushing through the inexorable gravitational pull of mediocrity.

@sheilkapadia.bsky.social @daboulciff.bsky.social I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!

Homer was famous for epithets, eg “fleet-footed Achilles” or “wily Odysseus”. Henceforth, irrespective of win-loss record, we should refer to him as “embattled head coach Nick Sirianni”.

Jaire Alexander played as many snaps for the Eagles as Frank Gore. Legends, both.

Happy @timmcmanus42.bsky.social Banger Day, to all who celebrate. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Thaaaaaaaaat’s right…

Howie Roseman: "If you win $100, it's not like you have $100 that's found [and thus treated differently from the initial endowment], it's still your $100." This refers to the "house money effect" on risk-taking, and how it can lead to suboptimal decisions.

In 2023 the Niners bragged that their practices are more intense, longer and more frequent (in terms of padded practice) than the other 31 teams. Before this season, they were 32nd in adjusted games lost over Shanahan’s 8 seasons, 23rd or worse in 7 out of 8 seasons.

Internet please get me a gif of apoplectic Daboll.

Thinking about this paper by Atanasov et al. The best forecasters make frequent, incremental updates to their beliefs. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

SB (min. 2 GS) 1. Russell Wilson (0.40) 2. Jalen Hurts (0.39) 3. Eli Manning (0.22) 4. Tom Brady (0.19) 5. Kurt Warner (0.05)

The coaches need to let their killers do their thing. Pass the f’ing ball. (0.65 epa/dropback, -0.2 / rush)

Who had the more memorable Eagles career: Z’Darius Smith or Frank Gore?

I have never been to the Linc, but Philadelphia sports fans should be knowledgeable enough to STFU when the offense is lining up for a play. Come on.

Eagles benefited from an iffy DPI call on Patrick Surtain. But that’s why you take a shot! Sometimes you get a completion, sometimes you get a flag! Aggressiveness pays off when you have talented QB and receivers.

The vast majority of professional athletes have nothing interesting or insightful to say. BG is not that guy, he is awesome. And over the years, Bo has built a level of trust and comfort where you get a “two dads talking” level podcast.