An imbalance of power erodes the quality of public debate. The dominant side faces fewer epistemic constraints on its arguments, while the dominated side has less incentive to produce strong arguments or to engage with the rules of knowledge institutions. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/power-bala...

Too accurate

The evidence around us, is overwhelming that cooperation is vastly more effective at creating welfare for all than (political) violence. Our fantasies of violence as a way to settle political differences are an evolutionary mismatch, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social: buff.ly/uy9CnVx

Which reputations matter most across societies?

Fantasies of political violence are delusions that divert from the type of strategies that are effective at resolving conflicts in the modern world. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-delusi...

We are offering a 2-year postdoctoral position at CIMCyC (Granada, Spain) to work on the psychology of dis(mis)information. Apply before 26th September. Nice city, great environment ☺️ Please share! 🔃 cimcyc.ugr.es/en/informati... #socialpsychology #cogpsyc #PsychSciSky #PsychJob #PhDJob

Sport may be ‘beautiful’ to some, but that is not really why most people are so into sports. The truth about sport, writes @lionelpage.bsky.social, is that it is a status game—for individuals *and* for groups: open.substack.com/pub/lionelpa...

Why do we watch sport? It is commonly said that it is because of the beauty of athletic performance. In reality, sport taps into our natural interest in status games. This explains many of the seemingly surprising aspects of how we consume it. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-truth-...

New post on Optimally Irrational: Everything you ever wanted to know about friendship: why it feels good, has its rituals, and sometimes brings anxiety. The puzzles of friendship make sense once we unpack its strategic layers. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/friendship...

There’s a lot more calculation to establishing friendships than you might realize. @LionelPage.bsky.social exposes and explores the game theory of choosing friends: buff.ly/ZXYoZnI

Socio-economic changes since WWII have meant a relentless journey for the political left from Marxist (more so in continental Europe), socialist dogmatism to ‘gentrified’ pragmatism—which lacks an engaging ideology. Excellent explainer by @lionelpage.bsky.social: buff.ly/akezjq1

The explanation for the decade-long process of gentrification of the left in Western countries: The breakdown of the working class, the emergence of new social groups supporting social change (women, students), and the ideological crises of Marxism and Keynesianism.

Baffled by the wild dynamics and shifts in the political ideologies associated with ‘left’ and ‘right’? This post by @lionelpage.bsky.social will help you make sense of the gentrification of the left, and the corresponding populist shift on the right: buff.ly/w18hxdu

The gentrification of the electoral base of left-wing parties and the popularisation of the base of right-wing parties are among the most noticeable features of recent years in Western countries. In fact, they are the continuation of a decades-long trend. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-gentri...

Emphasizing that democracy itself is at risk is quite ineffective in reducing support for undemocratic behavior - experimental evidence from 10 countries now open access in @polbehavior.bsky.social AND this adds a satisfying *The End* to my dissertation. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

New working paper alert: we provide a model of post-hoc rationalizations, driven by motives of (self-)esteem. We show how this can lead to groupthink, polarization, and a preference for echo chambers. www.ifo.de/sites/defaul...

Idealists say political ideas shape the world; cynics say they just reflect material interests. I argue that both views can be reconciled: ideologies reflect social coalitions' interests, but debates over ideas still shape real outcomes. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/why-and-ho...

So dangerous to create a personalist regime where no coherent policy is ever made and anyone who contradicts the leader is forced out. The governance of modern societies depends on planning and information flow.

The economics of religion. In the 15th century, the English Church banned Bibles translated into common English. Later, an influential clergyman expressed concern that the availability of Bibles in common English would jeopardise the monopoly of the Church on religious teaching.

"We’re often told that aggression is something we learn. But the evidence suggests the opposite: that kids have to learn not to be aggressive." www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/12-things-...

"we too easily take for granted the present way of life we are accustomed to, the fact that citizens are law-abiding and that institutions are somewhat functional." Oui. Nous devons arrêter de dire "Tout ira forcément bien".

“The current political episode should serve as a reminder that we easily take for granted the social order we live in.” We are just one equilibrium shift away from dystopia, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social: buff.ly/tddbuNE

We easily take the way our society works for granted. However, it only relies on what's in our minds: our shared expectations about each other's behaviour. What’s happening in the US illustrates how the norms on which social order rests can erode and break down.

We got a lot of new economic data last week. Lemme try to put it all in context for you. Bottom line: We know the pre-Liberation Day economy was pretty good. But we've barely seen a glimpse of what lies on the other side of that abyss.

Ominous - must be stopped before it becomes a precedent

"Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism [...]. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state. Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet, not shrink, an aggressor state's appetite for conquest" Mearsheimer. 🤭 👇

Is there a more meritorious spin to the narrative that Russia was provoked than “it’s all Russian propaganda”? @lionelpage.bsky.social tackles John Mearsheimer’s superficially plausible account and, using a generous dollop of game theory, argues why it is flawed: buff.ly/KeWyRWA

Mearsheimer blames the West and NATO for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this post, I explain why his theory of great power politics is fundamentally misguided and how it ends up whitewashing Russia’s imperial ambitions. open.substack.com/pub/lionelpa...

Check out how the anchors of CBS Evening News ended their broadcast tonight:

"Why didn’t people see what was happening in the 1930s and stop it?" Every aspiring autocrat ever:

There are heroes in Russia, too. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Frustrated once again with the others in your group—why can’t they just get along and collaborate towards the group’s goal? The mystery is really why people work together at all. @lionelpage.bsky.social explains the phenomenon of intercoalitional entropy. Top post: buff.ly/hwnbCsj

Why do groups often fail to work well together? Because individual incentives are rarely aligned. We often imagine organisations as unified actors—but inside, conflicting interests and strategic behaviour undermine cohesion. This is part of the hidden curriculum of social life.

You may be asking yourself what is wrong with democracy—but that is the wrong question. @lionelpage.bsky.social argues it is our image of democracy that is flawed. He offers a more realistic view of what democracy is—and is not—good for, without illusions: buff.ly/eeZLQnZ

Democracy is not an ideal system where enlightened citizens debate to find a common good, but one that manages conflicts of interest in society by giving a say to the largest number of people. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/democracy-...

New post on the game theory of political power: why it exists and how to acquire it. Behind the familiar narratives of democracy, autocracy, and other regimes lie unifying principles that clarify the often puzzling nature of politics.

Interesting post by @lionelpage.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/lionelpa...

If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1. If two people give 2 each, it is €4. If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million. Let’s coordinate, here 👇 and please re-post to spread the word. yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/

“human psychology has a dual nature: a deep-seated desire for equality and autonomy, alongside a temptation to dominate.” This phrase in @lionelpage.bsky.social’s latest post—The deep roots of our egalitarian psychology—explains A LOT. (But do read the whole thing 🤣) buff.ly/4ihqcBM

The deep roots of our egalitarian psychology: Why we strive for equality and why it is always at risk from would-be social bullies. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-deep-r...

President George Bush in 1990 on what was at stake in protecting Kuwait’s sovereignty.

Mearsheimer on appeasement with aggressive powerful countries: “appeasement and bandwagoning are ineffective and dangerous strategies” “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics””, 2001

Community notes have been a great system. They use sound statistical algorithms to extract collective wisdom even from a polarised population. These algorithms are impartial. Musk went from supporting this crowdsourced fact-checking to finding it inconvenient.

The early days of Trump’s second term have, unfortunately, more than vindicated my concerns about the risks of his election. In light of recent events, I am making this post accessible to everyone. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-qualit...

The geopolitical readjustments away from the US keep coming. The idea that the US can act like an international bully and still maintain its leadership with so many allies is misguided.

Federal democracy now !

Game theory is endlessly fascinating, and @lionelpage.bsky.social can bring its insights to life like none other. His latest (very timely!) post explains why having more power is not necessarily a good thing—The paradox of power: https://buff.ly/4hXE0kB

The key problem with the EU is that national leaders have resisted democratic federal institutions accountable to European citizens and able to address European-level challenges. This has left a clunky institutional architecture ill-suited to 21st-century great power geopolitics.

The new US policy on Ukraine focuses on short-term gains and neglects long-term implications: the loss of US credibility as a Western coalition leader, an increased risk of similar conflicts, and the risk of nuclear proliferation.