Many thanks to everyone who follows Optimally Irrational! I am very glad that this Substack devoted to presenting deep insights into human behaviour in an accessible form has found such a large audience. www.optimallyirrational.com

The potential of AIs becoming self-aware is not the most urgent issue, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social: “The key question about future AI risk is not whether AI agents will become self-aware; it is which goals they will have as they become more and more powerful.” buff.ly/4AfIPt6

In the final instalment of his splendid series of posts on morality, @lionelpage.bsky.social ties a nice bow around all the insights that answer the question, “So, what is morality?”, and addresses some outstanding challenges to the conclusions: buff.ly/aVrkIUp

It is. In case it's of interest, Ken Binmore has my favourite elaboration of social contract theory in the light of a century of game theory. It's explored informally in a nice sequence of substack posts by @lionelpage.bsky.social

Toddlers effortlessly recognize unfairness when they see it—yet agreeing with others what is, and isn’t, fair eludes even learned scholars. @lionelpage.bsky.social wisely avoids trying to definitively define fairness, but digs into how we seek agreement about it: buff.ly/W2SRDsR

How do we agree on what is “fair” without endless haggling? A post on the psychology and game theory of fairness, with a solution to the egalitarian vs utilitarian debate. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/how-we-dec...

Fairness is not some mysterious moral force binding our actions. It is a social solution to a pervasive problem: once cooperation creates gains, who gets what? www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-is-fa...

Robert Trivers, a theoretical genius and likely the Einstein of evolutionary biology, passed away. His theories of reciprocal altruism, parental investment, and self deception are among the deepest and most encompassing in the social sciences. Great post on them by @lionelpage.bsky.social

“In several key contributions, Trivers helped lift the veil on the underlying logic of human behaviour.” @lionelpage.bsky.social reviews the work of the scientist deservedly characterized as Darwin’s heir, Robert Trivers, who died two weeks ago: buff.ly/YsCN41T

The game theory of cooperation • Explained simply

One of the most important insights of game theory is that cooperation is often rational. Indeed, it helps us understand why cooperation exists and how it works in practice. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-game-t...

If morality is fundamentally a human affair, then game theory provides a framework that explains morality, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social in the latest instalment of his series on human morality: buff.ly/X5QMJTi

Evolution is often framed as a cosmic struggle of all against all. Yet everything we observe about life is the product of cooperation. Understanding how cooperation is sustained is a key insight for thinking about how to organise society. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/cooperatio...

Kant is notoriously hard to read. Here I explain his moral philosophy simply, and I criticise it, drawing on the careful thinking about rationality forged in game theory. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/dekanting-...

The seizure makes no strategic sense for the US. It would be one of the biggest acts of geopolitical self-harm a US President has ever committed. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-if-th...

"161. Lionel Page: Gossip — how Psychopaths Attack your Reputation" Brad Carr Podcast @lionelpage.bsky.social 15 Jan 2026 [1:21:27] #Cult https://s.cultpodcasts.com/jvFO1WnJCEmzO2eax0JzTg

Earlier, @lionelpage.bsky.social argued against absolute moral truths. Here he explains how morality can be relative—operationalized as contractarianism—without being moral relativism, subjectivism, and a range of other -isms. A veritable tour-de-force 👏: buff.ly/uqbgcZa

Is morality relative? • And if so to what extent

Is morality relative to each society? This view is common in the public but unpopular among philosophers. We can see morality as grounded in a society’s social contract--and thus relative--without the usual “anything goes” associated with "relativism". www.optimallyirrational.com/p/is-moralit...

A key objection to ‘morality as a convention’ (rather than absolute truth) is that ‘anything goes’. @lionelpage.bsky.social deftly counters this argument and shows why its method is flawed, and proposes respect for a social contract as a more robust explanation: buff.ly/LJRPe0b

A defence of morality as respect for a social contract • The absence of absolute moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"

Very much this energy : m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mUb...

A defence of morality as respect for a social contract. Moral, legal and ethical systems are conventions, but they are not arbitrary: they are constrained by the structure of conflict and cooperation in society. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/a-defence-...

Universities worldwide are increasingly shaped by corporate, profit-driven logic. Australia is sadly ahead of the curve. The Parliamentary inquiry report just released rightly points to the core problem: academics have been marginalised in governance. www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentar...

Morality works without absolute moral truths • Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly

Can morality still make sense if there are no absolute moral truths? Almost 300 years ago, Hume said yes: moral systems are conventions that foster social cooperation, and our moral emotions are designed to help us navigate these conventions. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/morality-w...

Would it occur to Elon Musk that Russia would also cheer for the US to break up into 50 “sovereign” independent states, while at the same time trying to forcibly reintegrate former states from the USSR which are now independent?

Many secular philosophers still want “moral laws” to be objectively true. But to get there they have to smuggle an unconditional ought out of pure is. In spite of its appeal, the idea that there are objective moral truths "out there" is misguided. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/there-are-...

End of year reading by David Spiegelhalter and @lionelpage.bsky.social. Very much looking forward to digging in!

What came first—the chicken or the egg? Never mind that—what came first, morality or religion? @lionelpage.bsky.social challenges (if not debunks) the common assumption that religion was a prerequisite for morality. Game theory offers a far more plausible foundation: buff.ly/ObDnxWi

Do we need religion for morality to make sense? Thinking that religion is required for morality is getting things backwards. Our moral sense preceded religions and shaped their ideas about right and wrong. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/no-religio...

The challenge of designing AI agents as helpers: In the short term, we prefer positive feedback. In the long term, we benefit from having harsh but fair feedback. AI companies might make more money by following our preference for sycophancy rather than our long-term interest.

We have moral intuitions and emotions that help us play the game of morals well with others in order to go through the game of life seamlessly. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/morality-w...

Clickbait strategies backfire over time. Chasing quick clicks may build an audience, but clickbait erodes reputation in the long run. High-quality content may attract an audience more slowly, but it can outperform clickbait strategies over time. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-are-w...

This is a clever, social-sciency take on social media by @lionelpage.bsky.social When you read it, you will understand why I was compelled to share it with you

Why did democracy spread? I argue the key driver were factors shifting bargaining power towards popular coalitions. Will it keep spreading? There is no historical law guaranteeing it, I am afraid. And AI may even give more cards to autocratic rulers. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/does-the-a...

“There’s almost no limit to what you can get people to do if you let them think it is their idea” Jim Downey - former SNL writer

How gerrymandering can change election outcomes, in one chart www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp...

Goring explaining, in 1946, Putin's strategy to drag his population into war.

Everything you ever wanted to know about why we behave the way we do on social media. The three layers of strategic considerations shaping our online presence: presentation, competition, and coalition building.

Human General Intelligence requires an ability to learn, which is closely linked to a goal. Thus, artificial general intelligence will need a goal, too. While we get ours from evolution, what goals will we give machines? Good piece by @lionelpage.bsky.social: buff.ly/nQ8XxAl

To develop artificial general intelligence, it is likely that we will need to give AI a general goal and the ability to learn how to progress towards this goal. The fundamental question is: which goal?

Great quote from Matthew McConaughey on how material incentives slant our perception of reality. (From when he decided to refuse romcom roles)

Religion is declining worldwide in a predictable sequence - across generations, participation drops, then importance of religion, and later belonging. This is a broad model for understanding religious change around the world. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

An imbalance of power erodes the quality of public debate. The dominant side faces fewer epistemic constraints on its arguments, while the dominated side has less incentive to produce strong arguments or to engage with the rules of knowledge institutions. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/power-bala...

Too accurate

The evidence around us, is overwhelming that cooperation is vastly more effective at creating welfare for all than (political) violence. Our fantasies of violence as a way to settle political differences are an evolutionary mismatch, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social: buff.ly/uy9CnVx

Which reputations matter most across societies?