The category error we all make about the Monty Hall problem is that we think it is a probability problem, when in fact it was created in a lab to make us all feel stupid.

Design > Model, always. Another good one from Frank Harrell www.fharrell.com/post/causal/

"But the mystery of replication still seems too deep; the predictions from A.I. aren’t entirely random, but they’re far from perfect, the SCORE team found." www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/s...

What's your favorite body of law? Mine is Abelson's: nothing-so-practical.com/post/abelson... #statistics

This is my favorite climate change chart. Japanese monks, aristocrats, and emperors kept meticulous records of cherry blossom festivals for 1,200 years and accidentally built the world's longest climate dataset.

A few people have replied to my Artemis posts with links to Gil Scott-Heron's "Whitey on the Moon." Here's a story from Space.com about Artemis II pilot Victor Glover, currently en route to fly around the Moon, and his connection to that piece. www.space.com/space-explor...

View the presentation recording on YouTube: youtu.be/Q8A5NEmRxyM?...

Is CUPED just regression adjustment in disguise? You be the judge: nothing-so-practical.com/post/cuped-v... #ABtest #experiment #CausalSky #Causalinference

The best way to prevent being blocked by Daniel Lakens. IYKYK

Causal inference!

What's your favorite body of law? Mine is Abelson's: nothing-so-practical.com/post/abelson... #statistics #psychology

What makes #causalinference hard? It's not the math or the code: nothing-so-practical.com/post/causal-... #CausalSky #ABtest

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

DAGs and potential outcomes are useful frameworks but they miss some things that are helpful to understand in practice. #CausalInference is Easy: nothing-so-practical.com/post/causal-... #cause #causal #PotentialOutcomes #DAG

Is CUPED just regression adjustment in disguise? You be the judge: nothing-so-practical.com/post/cuped-v... #ABtest #CUPED #experiment